How resilient and countercyclical were emerging economies during the global financial crisis?

By studying the cross-country incidence of the 2008–2009 global financial crisis, we document a structural break in the way emerging economies responded to the global shock. Contrary to popular perceptions, emerging economies suffered growth collapses (relative to the pre-crisis levels) comparable to those experienced by developed economies, even when they continued growing. Afterwards, most economies returned to their pre-crisis growth rates. Although emerging economies were not able to avoid the collapse originated in the U.S. and then transmitted across countries, they were more resilient during the global crisis than during past crises. Namely, they resumed their higher growth rates earlier and converged more quickly to their pre-crisis growth trend. Moreover, breaking with the past, emerging economies did not fall more than developed economies during the global crisis and were able to conduct countercyclical policies, thus becoming more similar to developed economies.     

An Econometric Study of Quits Rate Trends in the United States since the Great Recession: Cyclical Movement or Structural Change?

This paper attempts to identify the possible reasons behind a drop of the quits rate in the period since the Great Recession. (As defined by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the quits rate is the number of quits during the entire month as a percent of total employment.) The paper examines several essential questions on the quits rate using econometric models and analysis: What are the crucial determinants that explain the movements in the quits rate? Is the postrecession stagnation of the quits rate a result of current cyclical macroeconomic conditions, or does it reflect a structural change? As far as we know, no recent research has attempted to model this indicator to answer these questions. Quits rate data have been systematically collected by the Bureau of Labor Statistics through the Job Opening and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) only since the end of year 2000. By dividing our data set into 12 industrial categories and four regions, we are able to come up with empirical models to explain quits rate behavior over a consecutive time span and also across industries and regions. After developing our model, we are then able to examine if there is evidence of structural change using several methods.     

Conflicting attitudes and scepticism towards online shopping: the role of experience

Researchers typically study how levels of risk perception about online shopping affect whether and how consumers use the channel to buy products. In this paper, we propose to study how different types of attitudes towards online shopping are formed when consumers consider both the benefit and the risk of using the Internet to do their shopping. We consider the possibility that general types of attitudes are formed when consumers' perception of the risk and the benefit of using online shopping conflict. We pay particular attention to the concept of online shopping scepticism where consumers may fully realize the benefit of using the Internet to do their shopping, but also express a certain level of concern about the risk of using that channel. In the risk literature, researchers have shown that experience and increased exposure to a particular technology usually involves the accumulation of more and better knowledge that in turn may lead to a reduction in the perception of the risks involved. In this research, we also explore the role of experience in the context of consumers' intention to use online shopping. More specifically, we postulate that online shopping experience has a direct effect as well as an indirect effect on the intention to use online shopping. Experience with online shopping directly increases the consumer's intention to use the Internet to buy products but it also reduces the degree of scepticism and risk aversion, and that in turn, also increases the intention to use online shopping.     

La Participation des Adhérents Dans Leurs Coopératives Agricoles: Une Étude Exploratoire du Secteur Céréalier Français

When a farmer joins an agricultural cooperative, he or she undertakes to participate in the cooperative economically, as a co‐operator, and also in its administration, as an associate. Yet, today, researchers and directors of cooperatives are observing a drop in member participation in both spheres. The goal of this paper is to build a typology of the members of grain farmer agricultural co‐operatives in France, based on the members’ participation, and then use a multinomial probit model to identify the factors that come into play and result in a member belonging to a given category in the typology. We make the hypothesis that attitudes with respect to organizational involvement and the member's confidence in his or her co‐operative can explain these differences in behavior, along with individual variables tied to the member and his or her farm business, and variables associated with the co‐operative to which the member belongs. Following the analysis of the participation behavior of the 290 members in the sample, the members can be grouped into three distinct categories: “individualists,” “good soldiers,” and “engaged.” The results of the multinomial probit model on these three categories show, in particular, that attitude toward organizational involvement has a significant effect, as do the presence of storage on the farm and the size of the cooperative on the probability of being an “individualist” rather than a “good soldier” or “engaged.”     

Consumer satisfaction and loyalty: Two main consequences of retailer personality

This article investigates the impact of retailer personality on consumers' satisfaction with and loyalty to the retailer, measured through attitude and future behavioral intentions. Data were collected on a convenience sample of 372 customers of a specific retailer. Using partial least squares analysis (PLS), we show that four traits (“congeniality”, “originality”, “conscientiousness” and “preciousness”) have a direct or indirect impact on one of the dependent variables studied. Hence, this article proposes a model of the consequences of retailer personality and suggests that retailer personality is an important concept that practitioners should consider when running their satisfaction and loyalty programs.     

An Explicit Mapping of Currency Target Zone Models to Option Prices*

Currency target zones have been under scrutiny for the past three decades, which led to the development of two broad classes of quantitative models: Phenomenological ones that explicitly take into consideration the market's perception of the bounded exchange rate, and more mechanical ones that rely on put and call options. Until now, the two models have only been compared qualitatively. Here, we derive, for the first time, a quantitative link between these two approaches. Specifically, we show how the former approach has to be generalized in order to recover the second one. This mapping lets us relate the phenomenological parameter of the first approach to economically well‐known quantities.     

Trade and the location of industries: Some new results

We study a two-country two-sector model with free entry and monopolistic competition where both industries use labour to produce differentiated goods. The two countries are identical except for size. Labour is freely mobile across industries but it cannot move internationally. Transport costs affect both industries. The location of industries and the pattern of trade are the results of the interaction of two effects: the home market effect and the wage differential effect. The main results are: (i) if the two countries are sufficiently close in size and demand elasticities differ across industries (transport costs being equal), a continuous fall in transport costs from a prohibitive level to zero is associated with a reversal in the pattern of trade at some intermediate level. For large transport costs, the large country is a net exporter of the more differentiated good. For lower transport costs, the large country becomes a net exporter of the less differentiated good; (ii) if the two countries are very different in size and demand elasticities differ across industries (transport costs being equal), the larger country is always a net exporter of the less differentiated good.     

Buying Back Subcontractors: The Strategic Limits of Backward Integration

In a model where a monopolistic downstream firm (assembler) negotiates simultaneously with each of its n subcontractors the prices of the complementary components which enter its product, we show that backward integration is limited by a strategic negative effect: the prices and profits of independent suppliers increase when a merger reduces their number. Mergers are profitable only if the downstream firm buys at least two thirds of its suppliers. In an endogenous acquisition game à la Kamien and Zang (1990) the only merged equilibrium occurs when there is only one subcontractor. In a sequential acquisition game full integration is not an equilibrium when the number of suppliers is at least five.