Does socially responsible mutual fund performance vary over the business cycle? New insights on the effect of idiosyncratic SR features

This study analyses the performance and market timing of US socially responsible (SR) mutual funds in relation to business cycle regime shifts and different grouping criteria: Ethical strategy focus, SR attributes scores and Morningstar category. Different methodologies are applied and results highlight the importance of considering specific benchmarks related to the investment style in evaluating the SR fund performance. Our results show that, in aggregate, the abnormal performance of SR funds is negative and significant in expansion periods, but no significant differences are found in recession periods. When specific benchmarks are considered, performance improves in recession periods, particularly for environmental funds, those with high SR attributes scores, and funds from the nine Morningstar style box categories. Market timing of SR funds takes positive values and is partially significant. Previous evidence of negative timing after a recent financial crisis vanishes when specific benchmarks are considered. For comparative purposes the performance of conventional US mutual funds is also analysed. There are no significant differences between the performance of SR and conventional mutual funds when a fair comparison is made within the same style categories. When all the SR funds are considered, they underperform conventional funds in expansion sub‐periods, but in recession sub‐periods they perform better, although the differences observed are not significant.     

The Value Relevance of Accounting Numbers Under International Financial Reporting Standards

We study the market reaction to the mandatory adoption of International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) in Spain by examining the value relevance of the information contained in the IFRS reconciliation adjustments in relation to the local generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP). The two‐staged IFRS disclosure in the transition period is specific to Spain: the aggregated numbers of accounting differences are disclosed in stage 1, and the IFRS individual adjustments on book value of equity and earnings are disclosed in stage 2. This unique reporting timeline provides an opportunity for the market both to assess the impact of those new accounting policies adopted by firms and to assess differences when compared to the previous GAAP. We find no evidence of increased value relevance after IFRS adoption. However, our results from the incremental value relevance test show that investors consider the individual reconciliation adjustments in the second stage to be valuable and significant, specifically in relation to marked‐to‐market adjustment to financial instruments, adjustments to intangibles, provisions and impairment adjustments to property, plant and equipment, adjustments to inventories, and adjustments to pension benefits. Moreover, the results are significantly higher for low leverage firms. Our findings indicate that the market prices the informativeness of the reconciliation adjustments once the transition to IFRS disclosure cycle is complete.     

The financial contribution of customer-oriented marketing capability

This article assesses the financial contribution of marketing capability. In contrast with previous research, which conceptualizes marketing capability as the deployment of marketing resources to achieve sales, this study conceives marketing capability as the deployment of marketing resources to achieve the ultimate objectives of customer satisfaction and brand equity (i.e., customer-oriented marketing capability [COMC]). Thus, this research disentangles the dynamic relationships among marketing resources, sales, customer satisfaction, and brand equity through the use of network Data Envelopment Analysis to capture COMC. According to what the value relevance perspective proposes, COMC positively influences the growth of Tobin’s q and improves the growth of analysts’ recommendations. These findings remain robust and consistent with the use of additional measures and methods common to the marketing and financial literatures. Our study provides tools and a framework for analysis for managers to maximize their ability to use marketing strategy to drive performance.     

Identification and critical time forecasting of real estate bubbles in the USA

We present a hybrid model for diagnosis and critical time forecasting of real estate bubbles. The model combines two elements: (1) the Log Periodic Power Law Singular model to describe endogenous price dynamics originated from positive feedback loops among economic agents; and (2) a diffusion index that creates a parsimonious representation of multiple macroeconomic variables. We explicitly compare the in-sample and out-sample behaviour of our model on the housing price indices of 380 US metropolitan areas. Empirical results suggest that the model is able to forecast the end of the bubbles and to identify the variables that are highly relevant during the bubble regime.     

An assessment of another decade of capital controls in Colombia: 1998–2008

We explore the effectiveness of capital controls in Colombia. We analyze the impact of administrative restrictions to capital flows on aggregate capital flows, the composition of capital flows, the real exchange rate, and economic activity using restricted versions of vector error correction models (VEC) that control for exogenous global financial conditions. The models are estimated using monthly data ranging from August of 1998 to May of 2008. In addition we estimate GARCH models to identify if capital controls have had relevant impacts on the volatility of the nominal exchange rate and of other relevant asset prices. These models are estimated using weekly data covering the same time period. Results suggest that the capital controls used since 1998 have been ineffective in reducing capital flows and the trend of the Colombian peso to appreciate. In addition there is no evidence suggesting a change in the composition of capital flows induced by capital controls. We find some evidence in favor of capital controls reducing nominal exchange rate volatility at high frequencies.     

Demand uncertainty and capacity utilization in airlines

This paper studies the relationship between demand uncertainty—the key source of excess capacity—and capacity utilization in the US airline industry. We present a simple theoretical model that predicts that lower demand realizations are associated with higher demand volatility. This prediction is strongly supported by the results of estimating a panel GARCH framework that pools unique data on capacity utilization across different flights and over various departure dates. A one unit increase in the standard deviation of unexpected demand decreases capacity utilization by 21 percentage points. The estimation controls for unobserved time-invariant specific characteristics as well as for systematic demand fluctuations.     

DECENTRALIZED TRADE MITIGATES THE LEMONS PROBLEM*

In markets with adverse selection, only low‐quality units trade in the competitive equilibrium when the average quality of the good held by sellers is low. We show that under decentralized trade, however, both high‐ and low‐quality units trade, although with delay. Moreover, when frictions are small, the surplus realized is greater than the (static) competitive surplus. Thus, decentralized trade mitigates the lemons problem. Remarkably, payoffs are competitive as frictions vanish, even though both high‐ and low‐quality units continue to trade, and there is trade at several prices.     

Wealth and Consumption in Australia

We revisit the evidence on the effect of changes in household wealth on consumption using a panel of Australian states. We find that a one per cent increase in the value of housing wealth increases consumption by about 0.16 per cent in the long-run, with half of the response occurring within two quarters. The size of this response has been stable over time and largely reflects changes in spending on motor vehicles, durable goods and other discretionary items. We then run counterfactual scenarios using the Reserve Bank of Australia's macroeconometric model, MARTIN, to assess the macroeconomic effects of changes in household wealth. We show that increases in household wealth supported household spending between 2013 and 2017, when growth in disposable income was weak.