Scenario planning for tourism management: a participatory and system dynamics model applied to the Galapagos Islands of Ecuador

This paper presents a decision-support system based on a system dynamics model designed to examine tourism management in the Galapagos Islands. A participatory approach was used to integrate the views of multiple stakeholders in the Galapagos Islands and to build an understandable, graphical representation of the impacts of tourism and residential population growth. Each subsystem is examined through hypotheses involving three scenarios of tourism growth that are associated with different residential population expansions. A number of integrative and linked social-ecological effects in our model have been shown to severely shock the natural environment of the Galapagos and saturate the capacity of several socio-economic subsystems. Major concerns of the expanding human dimension in the Galapagos are represented by (1) the growing number of introduced species that threaten the Islands’ unique natural environment, and (2) the rapid saturation of the Galapagos National Park's tourism reception capacity. The model relies upon real data to specify rules, relationships, and rates of exchange that are derived through statistical functions and/or functions specified in theory or practice. The presented decision-support system is a quantitative scenario-planning tool that can be used by policy-makers to achieve an enhanced understanding of the Galapagos Islands as a coupled human–natural system.     

Economic (dis)integration in the presence of evolutionary learning

We use a two-factor, two-sector model to study the effects of economic integration and its reversal in the presence of input-generated external economies in one of the sectors. The equilibrium selection problem that arises is solved by applying a simple trial-and-error learning rule. Economic integration can take individual economies ridden with coordination failures to better equilibria, i.e., can solve the coordination problem. We show that integration (and disintegration) may generate cycles in wages, rentals and the sectoral allocation of factors.JEL Classification: F15, F16, F37 Corespondence to: Diego Méndez-Carbajo     

A new solution to the problem of adjudicating conflicting claims

Summary. For the problem of adjudicating conflicting claims, we consider the requirement that each agent should receive at least 1/n his claim truncated at the amount to divide, where n is the number of claimants (Moreno-Ternero and Villar, 2004a). We identify two families of rules satisfying this bound. We then formulate the requirement that for each problem, the awards vector should be obtainable in two equivalent ways, (i) directly or (ii) in two steps, first assigning to each claimant his lower bound and then applying the rule to the appropriately revised problem. We show that there is only one rule satisfying this requirement. We name it the “ rule”, as it is obtained by a recursion. We then undertake a systematic investigation of the properties of the rule.Received: 7 September 2004, Revised: 21 April 2005, JEL Classification Numbers: C79, D63, D74.William Thomson: Correspondence toWe thank Christopher Chambers, Youngsub Chun, Tarík Kara, Çağatay Kayí, Juan Moreno-Ternero, Toyotaka Sakai, and Michel Truchon for their comments. We also thank a referee for useful comments. This paper was presented at Columbia University, CORE, Bilkent University, Sabancí University, Université Laval, and Caltech, and at the Mallorca Review of Economic Design meeting. Thomson acknowledges support from the NSF under grant SES-0214691.     

Money for Science? The Impact of Research Grants on Academic Output*

This paper evaluates the impact of subsidies on the academic performance of researchers in Argentina. Academic performance is measured in terms of number of publications and in terms of impact factors in peer‐reviewed journals. The performance of researchers with financially supported projects is compared with that of a control group of researchers who submitted projects accepted in terms of quality but not supported because of shortage of funds. We use non‐experimental data and a difference‐in‐differences approach along with propensity score matching techniques, where we control for pre‐programme observable attributes as well as for researchers’ time‐invariant unobservable characteristics. Our findings suggest a positive and statistically significant effect of subsidy on academic performance, especially for young researchers.     

A new method to decompose profit efficiency: an application to US commercial banks

We propose a new method to estimate profit efficiency which makes explicit how revenue and cost efficiencies contribute to overall profit efficiency. Using data from US commercial banks from 2001 to 2010, we find that losses due to profit inefficiency represent about 3.5% of banks’ equity of which 1% is due to revenue inefficiency and 2.4% to cost inefficiency. Revenue efficiency changes affect more overall profit efficiency than equivalent cost efficiency changes. In contrast to previous studies, but in line with economic intuition, we find that while revenue and cost efficiencies tend to be negatively correlated, both correlate positively with profit efficiency.     

Fertility Decisions and Gender Differences in Labor Turnover, Employment, and Wages

A striking observation of the U.S. and other labor markets is the weak position of women in terms of job attachment, employment, and earnings relative to men. We develop a model of fertility and labor market decisions to study the impact of fertility on gender differences in labor turnover, employment, and wages. In our framework, individuals search for jobs and accumulate general (experience) and specific (tenure) human capital when they work. They can also increase their wage by moving to a job of higher quality. Labor market decisions (e.g., job acceptance and job mobility) may differ across genders: females that give birth may decide to interrupt their labor market attachment in order to enjoy the value of staying at home with their children. The model economy is successfully calibrated to match aggregate statistics in terms of fertility, employment, and wages. We find that fertility decisions generate important gender differences in turnover rates, with long lasting effects in employment and wages. These differences in labor turnover account for almost all the U.S. gender wage gap that is attributed to labor market experience by Blau and Kahn (2000, Journal of Labor Economics15(1), 1–42). The model also implies a very small role of tenure capital in accounting for wage differences between males and females (gender gap), and between females with and without children (family gap). Journal of Economic Literature Classification Numbers: E24, J13, J21, J31.     

Prices, Delay, and the Dynamics of Trade

We characterize the dynamics of trading patterns and market composition when trade is bilateral, finding a trading partner is costly, prices are determined by bargaining, and preferences are private information. We show that equilibrium is inefficient and exhibits delay as sellers price discriminate between buyers with different values. As frictions vanish, transaction prices are asymptotically competitive and the welfare loss of inefficient trading approaches zero, even though the trading patterns continue to be inefficient and delay persists. Journal of Economic Literature Classification Numbers: D40, D50.     

Evaluating the Economic Impacts of an Evolving Swine Industry: The Importance of Regional Size and Structure

This paper analyzes the economic impacts of swine operations at the county and state level, with attention to how those impacts are affected by the underlying economic structure of the region. Two sizes of farrow-to-finish operations and finishing-only operations were analyzed using IMPLAN. The relative impacts were compared to the effects of recent changes in industry structure. The larger operations provide less in economic benefits to the local county than a larger number of smaller operations. The differences were comparable to the impacts of the small unit exits over the past 4 years.     

Unit Root Tests,Persistence, and the Unemployment Rate of the U.S. States

In this paper, we investigate the existence of infrequent shocks and the degree of persistence of U.S. state unemployment over the period 1976-2004. We first apply individual Lagrange multiplier (LM) unit root tests and fail to reject the hysteresis hypothesis in forty states. When two changes in level are incorporated, we again fail to reject the hysteresis hypothesis in forty states. Since individual unit root tests normally lack power, we employ the recently developed panel LM unit root tests with up to two changes in level. Only in this case are we able to reject the joint unit root hypothesis in favor of regime stationarity. Computation of half-lives through impulse-response functions indicates the high degree of persistence of U.S. state unemployment. These results contrast with the common belief among scholars that U.S. state unemployment is closer to the natural rate paradigm than to the hysteresis paradigm.