Monetary policy with linear information costs

The paper adresses the problem of a monetary economy with costs of information, imposed in linear form. In particular, we make use of a strategic market game with money where equilibria are standardly non-Walrasian, permitting an active role to monetary policy. The imposition of information costs alters the demand of real balances since traders demand extra money for gathering and processing the necessary information. As a result, money injections could be proved welfare improving only when the induced information costs do not offset the resulted gains to trade.     

The Contribution of Structural Break Models to Forecasting Macroeconomic Series

This paper compares the forecasting performance of models that have been proposed for forecasting in the presence of structural breaks. They differ in their treatment of the break process, the model applied in each regime and the out‐of‐sample probability of a break. In an extensive empirical evaluation, we demonstrate the presence of breaks and their importance for forecasting. We find no single model that consistently works best in the presence of breaks. In many cases, the formal modeling of the break process is important in achieving a good forecast performance. However, there are also many cases where rolling window forecasts perform well. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Risk appetite,carry trade and exchange rates

Using exchange rate data from four different countries (time zones), we examine the relationship between the Yen exchange rate against major currencies (i.e. USD/JPY, EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY, AUD/JPY and NZD/JPY) and measures of risk appetite (i.e. the S&P500 index, Dow Jones Industrial Average index and the VIX index). Our results show that the equity indexes, especially the Dow Jones Industrial Average, play a more important role in the determination of the Yen cross rates than VIX. The popular carry-trade currencies, i.e. NZD/JPY, AUD/JPY and GBP/JPY, are more affected by the US equity market than USD/JPY and EUR/JPY. While the long-term relationships are consistent across the four different time zones, the short-term dynamics are different. We find that the response of NZD/JPY, AUD/JPY and GBP/JPY to changes in the US stock market is much greater in the New Zealand and Australian zones than in the UK or US. Although the short-term relationship between exchange rates and the equity index is quite strong, the error correction speed is very sluggish. We also find evidence of asymmetric adjustment in the response of exchange rates to changes in global risk aversion. Carry trade currencies tend to appreciate gradually when conditions are favorable but fall sharply when market risk increases.     

Factors associated with urban non-fatal road-accident severity

This paper reports on the factors associated with non-fatal urban-road accident severity. Data on accidents were gathered from the local traffic police in the City of Palermo, one of the six most populated cities in Italy.

Findings from a mixed-effects logistic-regression model suggest that accident severity increases when two young drivers are involved, road traffic conditions are light/normal and when vehicles crash on a two-way road or carriageway. Speeding is more likely to cause slight or serious injury even when compared to a vehicle moving towards the opposite direction of traffic. An accident during the summer is more likely to result in a slight or serious injury than an accident during the winter, which is in line with evidence from Southern Europe and the Middle East.

Finally, the severity of non-fatal accident injuries in an urban area of Southern Europe was significantly associated with speeding, the age of the driver and seasonality.     

The Relevance of the Monetary Model for the Euro / USD Exchange Rate Determination: a Long Run Perspective

This study tries to fill a vacuum in the literature on the relevance of economic fundamentals for the Euro / USD exchange rate determination. We adopt the Monetary Model for the Exchange Rate Determination as our testing vehicle and investigate the relevance of various versions of this model over a long time horizon, spanning the period from the inception of Euro till the present time. We rely on cointegration analysis to conduct our empirical research and in accordance to the relevant literature we fail to accept most of the variants of this model. However, we get encouraging results from an expanded version of the Monetary Model where demand and productivity factors appear in the set of the exchange rate determinants.     

On the social optimality of make-or-buy decisions

This article examines the impact of input prices on an entrant’s make-or-buy decision and on the subsequent social welfare level for three alternative models of downstream competition. For each particular model, it derives the range of input prices that induce the entrant to undertake: (a) the productively efficient make-or-buy decision; and (b) the socially optimal make-or-buy decision. The main conclusion of this article is that the entrant’s efficient make-or-buy decision is always socially optimal in the case of the Hotelling model, is socially optimal for the set of input prices that induce the entrant to undertake the efficient decision in the case of Cournot competition and is not necessarily socially optimal in the Bertrand vertical differentiation model. Last, this article examines the conditions under which the efficient and/or socially optimal make-or-buy decision undertaken by an entrant fulfills the regulatory two-fold goal of promoting service-based competition and encouraging facilities-based competition. Therefore, this article also provides the optimal access pricing policy that results in the best feasible outcome in terms of social welfare, productive efficiency, competition level and investment level for a given downstream competition model.     

Capital Structure and Firm Efficiency

Abstract:  This paper investigates the relationship between firm efficiency and leverage. We consider both the effect of leverage on firm performance as well as the reverse causality relationship. In particular, we address the following questions: Does higher leverage lead to better firm performance? Does efficiency exert a significant effect on leverage over and above that of traditional financial measures of capital structure? Is the effect of efficiency on leverage similar across different capital structures? What is the signalling role of efficiency to creditors or investors? Using a sample of 12,240 New Zealand firms we find evidence supporting the theoretical predictions of the Jensen and Meckling (1976) agency cost model. Efficiency measured as the distance from the industry's 'best practice' production frontier is positively related to leverage over the entire range of observed data. The frontier is constructed using the non-parametric Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) method. Using quantile regression analysis we show that the reverse causality effect of efficiency on leverage is positive at low to mid-leverage levels and negative at high leverage ratios. Firm size also has a non-monotonic effect on leverage: negative at low debt ratios and positive at mid to high debt ratios. The effect of tangibles and profitability on leverage is positive while intangibles and other assets are negatively related to leverage.     

Evaluation of technological and socio-economic issues affecting the deployment of home networks: evidence from the ICT-OMEGA project

Home networks (HNs) are rapidly becoming the next battlefield for various telecom carriers and companies. The European project ICT-OMEGA seeks to enable the convergence of the diverse wireless and wireline technologies at the Medium Access Control (MAC) layer. In such a world of converging, heterogeneous HN technologies, system designers needs to take into account several technical, economic and social aspects that will effect the development and the rate of adoption of HNs by the general public. Careful roadmapping is required to ensure a smooth transition from existing to the next generation HN systems. The objective of this paper is to provide an evaluation of the key technological and socio-economic issues, which may affect the deployment of HNs. Within the OMEGA project, such issues are addressed using surveys conducted by the project experts, designed based on the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP). In this paper, the results of the surveys, conducted using pairwise comparison (which is an important ingredient of AHP) are presented. Several critical aspects are identified and their importance is weighted. The conclusions drawn are important for the overall roadmapping effort of future HN technologies.