The monetary model in the presence of I(2) components: long-run relationships, short-run dynamics and forecasting of the Greek drachma

This paper re-examines the long-run properties of the monetary exchange rate model using data for the drachma–dollar and drachma–mark exchange rates under the hypothesis that the system contains variables that are I(2). Using the recent I(2) test by Paruolo (On the determination of integration indices in I(2) systems. J. Economet. 72 (1996) 313–356) to examine the presence of I(2) and I(1) components in a multivariate context we find that the system contains two I(2) variables in both cases and this finding is reconfirmed by the estimated roots of the companion matrix (Do purchasing power parity and uncovered interest rate parity hold in the long-run? An example of likelihood inference in a multivariate time-series model. Juselius, J. Economet. 69 (1995) 211–240). The I(2) component led to the transformation of the estimated model by imposing long-run but not short-run proportionality between domestic and foreign money. Two statistically significant cointegrating vectors were found and, by imposing linear restrictions on each vector as suggested by Johansen and Juselius (Identification of the long-run and the short-run structure: an applicaion to the ISLM model. J. Economet. 63 (1994) 7–36) and Johansen (Identifying restrictions of linear equations with applications to simultaneous equations and cointegration. J. Economet. 69 (1995b) 111–132), the order and rank conditions for identification are satisfied, but the test for overidentifying restrictions was not significant only for the case of the drachma/mark rate. The main findings suggest that we reject the forward-looking version of the monetary model for the drachma/dollar case but not when the drachma/mark rate is used, a result that is attributed to the monetary and exchange rate policy followed by the Greek authorities since Greece's joining of the European Union. Furthermore, we test for parameter stability using the tests developed by Hansen and Johansen (Recursive estimation in cointegrated VAR-models. Working paper (1993) University of Copenhagen) and it is shown that the dimension of the cointegration rank is sample independent while the estimated coefficients do not exhibit instabilities in recursive estimations. Finally, it is shown that the monetary model outperforms the random walk model in an out-of-sample forecasting contest.     

Cognitive abilities and portfolio choice

We study the relation between cognitive abilities and stockholding using the recent Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe (SHARE), which has detailed data on wealth and portfolio composition of individuals aged 50+ in 11 European countries and three indicators of cognitive abilities: mathematical, verbal fluency, and recall skills. We find that the propensity to invest in stocks is strongly associated with cognitive abilities, for both direct stock market participation and indirect participation through mutual funds and retirement accounts. Since the decision to invest in less information-intensive assets (such as bonds) is less strongly related to cognitive abilities, we conclude that the association between cognitive abilities and stockholding is driven by information constraints, rather than by features of preferences or psychological traits.     

Monetary Expressions of Labour Time and Market Prices: Theory and Evidence from China,Japan and Korea

This article presents estimates of labour values and prices of production following two approaches: the first is based on the classical and Marxian theory of value and distribution; the second on the so-called ‘new solution’ to the ‘transformation problem’ and its variant, the Temporary Single-System Interpretation (TSSI). The major advantage of the latter approach is its simplicity, along with the relatively low data requirements. Our empirical findings from the economies of China, Japan and South Korea suggest that both approaches give estimates of labour values and prices of production which are extremely close to each other as well as to actual market prices. On further examination, however, we conclude that our empirical findings are absolutely consistent with the theoretical requirements of the classical approach and contradict those of the TSSI.     

Divergence of Opinion and Post-Acquisition Performance

Abstract:  We examine the relation between divergence of opinion about the value of the acquiring firm in the pre-acquisition announcement period and post-acquisition stock returns. We find that acquirers subject to high opinion dispersion earn lower future returns than acquirers subject to low dispersion. It appears that, on average, only acquirers in the high divergence of opinion subset experience significant negative post-event abnormal returns. In the spirit of Miller (1977) , such evidence implies that high pre-event investor disagreement leads to systematic overpricing of acquirers that manifests itself through long-run underperformance of their stock. The documented misvaluation persists irrespective of the opinion divergence proxy and performance evaluation method used and after controlling for several common deal and acquirer characteristics.     

A CDS approach to induce facilities-based competition over NGA networks

The current regulatory framework in the European NGA market provides the basic principles for the gradual migration from service-based competition over the legacy copper access networks to facilities-based competition over fiber-based Next Generation Access (NGA) networks. This paper initially reviews the related literature and shows that: (i) an unbundling policy that boosts entry by alternative operators promotes service-based competition but provides operators with disincentives to invest in network upgrade; (ii) there is no consensus about the optimal regulatory policy that promotes competition and encourages investments in NGA networks; and (iii) the reviewed research articles are not consistent with the current regulatory framework in the European NGA market in terms of both the evolution of the regulatory goals over time and the recommended regulatory settings. This paper aims to propose a novel approach in order to effectively meet the current regulatory goals using the recommended settings. It is shown that the proposed approach, which is based on the basic principles governing a Credit Default Swap (CDS), provides an effective migration path towards facilities-based competition over NGA networks.     

Trading and Investing in Volatility Products

Since the banking crisis the market for volatility exchange‐traded products has developed rapidly as it opens to clients beyond the large institutional investor pool. Speculation is driven by increasingly complex leveraged and inverse exposures including those that attempt to trade on significant roll costs in volatility futures curves. Longer‐term investors use these products for the purposes of equity diversification, driven by fears of an ongoing Eurozone crisis. We survey the burgeoning academic literature in this area and present a comprehensive and up‐to‐date comparison of the market and statistical characteristics of European and US exchange‐traded volatility products.     

Demand for rural tourism: the effects of quality and information

The development of rural tourism is regarded as a promising diversification strategy especially for lagging and mountainous areas of the European Union. Research concerning the demand and/or supply of rural tourism services has been limited within the agricultural economics domain despite the significance attached to rural tourism by various rural development policy measures and initiatives. The article examines the expenditure behavior of rural tourists within a framework of demand for composite (heterogeneous) goods. The proposed framework captures the quality of the tourism experience as the commodity's unit value, a quantifiable economic variable, examines its effects on expenditures and allows for the estimation of elasticity in prices regarding expenditure and quantity. Empirical analysis is facilitated by a survey recording the expenditure behavior of 465 tourists in two rural and lagging areas of Greece. The quality of the tourism experience is significantly and positively affected by the income, the source from which information about the trip is retrieved (Internet, newspapers as well as general press and special travel press) and by the amount of information sought by the consumer prior to the trip. In turn, the quality of the tourism experience is the major endogenous factor that positively influences expenditures for rural tourism. Further research is needed before evidence provided in this work can be used to draw policy conclusions and recommendations.     

Individual investors and social ownership structures in the UK before the 1930s: Joint holdings and trustee investment

After the introduction of limited liability, a growing number of individuals in Britain from a widening social spectrum, including the less affluent, began to own stocks and shares. Drawing upon a unique and large dataset of 35 848 investors between 1870 and 1935, this study analyses joint holdings which have been a neglected aspect of investor behaviour. Our findings reveal that joint holdings were quite common and that about one in five UK investors were involved in a joint investment. Men were more likely to be joint holders than women for reasons related to institutions of social ownership such as trusts and executorships.     

BAYESIAN DYNAMIC VARIABLE SELECTION IN HIGH DIMENSIONS

This article addresses the issue of inference in time-varying parameter regression models in the presence of many predictors and develops a novel dynamic variable selection strategy. The proposed variational Bayes dynamic variable selection algorithm allows for assessing at each time period in the sample which predictors are relevant (or not) for forecasting the dependent variable. The algorithm is used to forecast inflation using over 400 macroeconomic, financial, and global predictors, many of which are potentially irrelevant or short-lived. The new methodology is able to ensure parsimonious solutions to this high-dimensional estimation problem, which translate into excellent forecast performance.