Testing the forward rate unbiasedness hypothesis during the 1920s

This paper reexamines the forward rate unbiasedness hypothesis (FRUH) during the 1920s and it contributes to the literature as follows: first, it utilizes a database that includes currencies not studied before, as well as the 3 month forward rates; second, it applies three different approaches to test for cointegration and it shows that the choice of the technique is not of crucial importance; third, it tests for the temporal stability of the cointegration results; finally, it tests for the existence of the FRUH in the short run, by means of error correction models, whereas previous studies focused on cointegrated vectors only. Our analysis shows that for countries that did not undergo major financial turmoil during that period, there exists more favorable evidence for the FRUH.     

Capital structure,equity ownership and firm performance

This paper investigates the relationship between capital structure, ownership structure and firm performance using a sample of French manufacturing firms. We employ non-parametric data envelopment analysis (DEA) methods to empirically construct the industry’s ‘best practice’ frontier and measure firm efficiency as the distance from that frontier. Using these performance measures we examine if more efficient firms choose more or less debt in their capital structure. We summarize the contrasting effects of efficiency on capital structure in terms of two competing hypotheses: the efficiency-risk and franchise-value hypotheses. Using quantile regressions we test the effect of efficiency on leverage and thus the empirical validity of the two competing hypotheses across different capital structure choices. We also test the direct relationship from leverage to efficiency stipulated by the Jensen and Meckling (1976) agency cost model. Throughout this analysis we consider the role of ownership structure and type on capital structure and firm performance.     

Globalisation and/or Europeanisation? The Case of Flexicurity

The relationship between globalisation and Europeanisation is conventionally studied by focusing on the domestic level. In this article we explore this relationship at the international level instead. We examine the way in which the two phenomena in the form of the ILO and the EU relate to one another. Adopting a discursive institutionalist approach and focusing on flexicurity, we investigate whether, how and under what conditions the discourse on flexicurity provides a point of convergence or divergence between globalisation and Europeanisation. Our empirical data reveals attempts by the European Commission to use globalisation as a legitimating device for a market-accommodating programme for labour market reform. The ILO remains more sceptical, both about the overall effects of globalisation and the more concrete uses of flexicurity. Meanwhile, the concept of flexicurity is subject to change and rearticulation in line with the evolving policy agenda endorsed by the Commission and/or the member states. The relationship between Europe and globalisation is thus far from neutral. ‘Europe’ is active in shaping globalisation; translated into the work undertaken here, Europeanisation could be conceived as a facet of globalisation rather than as a bulwark to it, or merely as a process running parallel to it.     

“I don’t think Turkish used here is normal”: language attitudes of Turkish university students towards Cypriot Turkish

As a significant factor in social relationships, language attitudes of students are important to explore when building a school culture of tolerance. This study examines the language attitudes of university students from Turkey towards Cypriot Turkish (CT) and Standard Turkish. A mixed methods approach was adopted where 94 Turkish university students studying in the northern part of Cyprus where the two varieties are spoken, responded to a questionnaire in the first phase. The results of the analysis of this survey showed that the participants had somewhat negative attitudes towards CT. In the second phase of the study, where three focus groups were conducted, the findings of the first phase were confirmed. Intertwined with discourses of class, the participants specifically referred to “correctness” and “intelligibility” as important issues for their evaluations of CT and its speakers. CT was also perceived as an important marker of Turkish Cypriotness by the participants and was projected to be lower than any other variety of Turkish spoken in Turkey.

     

Sensitivity of consumption to income and to government purchases: some specification and estimation issues

The paper derives a nonlinear error-correction model (ECM) for consumption and shows that existing models that are based on quadratic utility, combine permanent income and current-income consumption, and nest (or could nest) the hypothesis of substitutability between private consumption and government purchases are special cases of the ECM. The importance of some econometric issues that have not received proper attention in the literature is demonstrated by estimating the models using US aggregate quarterly data, 1953:1-1992:4. The evidence suggests that the ECM produces more reliable estimates than do the existing restrictive models.     

Objective methods for graphical structural learning

Graphical models are used for expressing conditional independence relationships among variables by the means of graphs, whose structure is typically unknown and must be inferred by the data at hand. We propose a theoretically sound Objective Bayes procedure for graphical model selection. Our method is based on the Expected-Posterior Prior and on the Power-Expected-Posterior Prior. We use as input of the proposed methodology a default improper prior and suggest computationally efficient approximations of Bayes factors and posterior odds. In a variety of simulated scenarios with varying number of nodes and sample sizes, we show that our method is highly competitive with, or better than, current benchmarks. We also discuss an application to protein-signaling data, which wieldy confirms existing results in the scientific literature.     

Is productive inefficiency a fatal disease? The effects of technical and scale efficiency in firm exit: the case of the Greek rubber and plastic industry

This article presents an integrated framework for testing the effects of productive efficiency, i.e. technical efficiency (TE) and scale efficiency (SE), on firm exit, facilitating the identification of the effects, causing a firm's operation at increasing or decreasing returns to scale. A panel data set of firms in the plastics and rubber industry of the Greek manufacturing sector is used to study the effect that TE and SE may have on a firm's probability to exit. Results reveal that technical efficiency is the most critical factor influencing firm exit, while SE exerts a quadratic effect on the probability to exit.     

Hilferding on derivatives

Abstract

Rudolf Hilferding has always been regarded as a leading Marxist scholar. His theoretical intervention is still considered to be benchmark in Political Economy. Nevertheless, Hilferding's approach to derivatives has been left untouched. The aim of this paper is precisely to fill this gap in the literature. Hilferding realised that the development of the stock exchange was indeed parallel to another important event: the emergence of standardised derivative exchanges; he underlined their economic significance for the organisation of capitalism. In spite of how one appraises the final outcome of his analysis, the intention to incorporate futures markets in his general approach and to analyse them using Marxian theoretical categories is quite exceptional in the long tradition of political economy.