Do Price Discreteness and Transactions Costs Affect Stock Returns? Comparing Ex‐Dividend Pricing before and after Decimalization

By the end of January 2001, all NYSE stocks had converted their price quotations from 1/8s and 1/16s to decimals. This study examines the effect of this change in price quotations on ex‐dividend day activity. We find that abnormal ex‐dividend day returns increase in the 1/16 and decimal pricing eras, relative to the 1/8 era, which is inconsistent with microstructure explanations of ex‐day price movements. We also find that abnormal returns increase in conjunction with a May 1997 reduction in the capital gains tax rate, as they should if relative taxation of dividends and capital gains affects ex‐day pricing.     

Monetary policy before and after the euro: evidence from Greece

We model Greek monetary policy in the 1990s and use our findings to address two interrelated questions. First, how was monetary policy conducted in the 1990s so that the hitherto highest-inflation EU country managed to join the euro by 2001? Second, how compatible is the ECB monetary policy with Greek economic conditions? We find that Greek monetary policy in the 1990s was: (i) primarily determined by German/ECB interest rates, though still influenced by domestic fundamentals; (ii) involving non-linear output gap effects; (iii) subject to a deficit of credibility culminating in the 1998 devaluation. On the question of compatibility our findings depend on the value assumed for the equilibrium post-euro real interest rate and overall indicate both a reduction in the pre-euro risk premium and some degree of monetary policy incompatibility. Our analysis has policy implications for the new EU members and motivates further research on fast-growing EMU economies.     

Thematic content analysis using supervised machine learning: An empirical evaluation using German online news

In recent years, two approaches to automatic content analysis have been introduced in the social sciences: semantic network analysis and supervised text classification. We argue that, although less linguistically sophisticated than semantic parsing techniques, statistical machine learning offers many advantages for applied communication research. By using manually coded material for training, supervised classification seamlessly bridges the gap between traditional and automatic content analysis. In this paper, we briefly introduce the conceptual foundations of machine learning approaches to text classification and discuss their application in social science research. We then evaluate their potential in an experimental study in which German online news was coded with established thematic categories. Moreover, we investigate whether and how linguistic preprocessing can improve classification quality. Results indicate that supervised text classification is generally robust and reliable for some categories, but may even be useful when it fails.     

On Setting Prices and Testing Cross-Subsidy with Accounting Data

Regulators are often faced with the challenge of both setting efficient prices and avoiding cross subsidy. Successful implementation of these goals requires estimates of both marginal costs and incremental costs. We present a methodology for estimating both marginal and incremental costs for postal products. The proposed algorithms combine micro-unit accounting data and econometric estimation of the cost structure. We apply the methodology to the U.S. Postal Service and produce estimates of marginal and incremental costs for eighteen postal products and incremental costs for another four groups of products.     

Linking corporate strategy to capital structure: diversification strategy,type and source of financing

This study examines the relationship between corporate strategy and capital structure, specifically the diversfication and financing strategies of a firm. The results show that equity financing is preferred for related diversification and unrelated diversification is associated with debt financing. Additionally, firms diversifying through acquisitions are more likely to use public sources of financing and those emphasizing internal development of new businesses depend primarily on private sources of financing. Using simultaneous equation estimation, we found a reciprocal relationship between a firm's financial strategy and its corporate diversification strategy. Mode and nature of diversification are also reciprocally interrelated. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Sectoral Transformation, Turbulence and Labor Market Dynamics in Germany

Abstract. This paper analyzes the interaction between structural change and labor market dynamics in West Germany, during a period when industrial employment declined by more than 30% and service sector employment more than doubled. Using transition data on individual workers, we document a marked increase in structural change and turbulence, in particular since 1990. Net employment changes resulted partly from an increase in gross flows, but also from an increase in the net transition 'yield' at any given gross worker turnover. In growing sectors, net structural change was driven by accessions from non-participation rather than unemployment; contracting sectors reduced their net employment primarily via lower accessions from non-participation. German reunification and Eastern enlargement appear to have contributed significantly to this accelerated pace of structural change.     

Shooting fish in the barrel? Examining the standard test of the Lucas variability hypothesis

The LVH (Lucas variability hypothesis) says that the reaction of real output to changes in nominal demand depends negatively upon the variability of the rate of change of nominal demand. The LVH was first proposed as a testable prediction from R. E. Lucas' 1973 model of the business cycle – known as the misperceptions model. The LVH has frequently been successfully tested on cross-country data sets. We first replicate the standard test result. We then proceed to show that the test suffers from the problem that the same LVH-test result appears – qualitatively and quantitatively – even in models having the reverse causal structure, from the one assumed by Lucas. We have consequently shown that the LVH-test is developed within a framework where it is hard to miss -hence the title.     

Policy Discrimination with and without Interpersonal Comparisons of Utility

Can the Pareto criterion guide policymakers who do not know the true model of the economy? If policymakers specify ex ante preferences for agents, then Pareto improvements from a distorted status quo are usually possible, and with more commodities than states, one can implement almost every Pareto optimum. Unlike the standard second welfare theorem, planners cannot dictate allocations: agents must trade. Unfortunately ex ante preferences impose interpersonal comparisons. If policymakers merely aim to maximize some social welfare function then optimal policies form an open set; hence small changes in the environment do not necessitate any policy response. Planners with symmetric information about agents can sometimes intervene without making interpersonal comparisons.