Understanding financial crisis through accounting models

This paper presents evidence that accounting (or flow-of-funds) macroeconomic models helped anticipate the credit crisis and economic recession. Equilibrium models ubiquitous in mainstream policy and research did not. This study traces the intellectual pedigrees of the accounting approach as an alternative to neo-classical economics, and the post-war rise and decline of flow-of-funds models in policy use. It includes contemporary case studies of both types of models, and considers why the accounting approach has remained outside mainstream economics. It provides constructive recommendations on revising methods of financial stability assessment and advocates an ‘accounting of economics’.     

Resource Dependency,Innovative Strategies,and Firm Performance in BOP Markets

Low‐income markets have attracted the interest of academics, politicians, and business leaders alike. In recent years, numerous companies such as Unilever, Cemex, Tetrapak, and Vodafone have provided evidence that low‐income markets offer commercial business opportunities and that private companies can realize profitable business activities while simultaneously contributing to the alleviation of poverty. However, companies are challenged by constraining conditions such as poor infrastructure, nonexistent distribution channels, illiteracy, corruption, lack of enforceable legal frameworks, and violent conflicts when entering those markets. In order to succeed, companies develop new strategies, introduce innovative business models, and develop novel capabilities. Three innovative practices are commonly named in the literature that should enable companies to operate successfully in low‐income markets: (1) integrating the local population and local entrepreneurs to cocreate products; (2) cooperating with nontraditional or fringe stakeholders; and (3) building local capacity, which means improving the market conditions of low‐income markets. This study applies a resource dependence perspective as it provides valuable explanations on the interaction between companies and their environment, how companies cope with environmental constraints, and how the environment and different strategies affect business outcomes. By integrating a resource dependence perspective, the study theoretically frames the strategic recommendations of the literature and answers the underlying research question of whether environmental conditions of low‐income markets cause the execution of innovative practices and whether such practices influence the outcome of companies operating in low‐income markets. The research hypotheses are tested in a structural equation model against data of 103 firms operating in low‐income markets. The study reveals that companies integrate local actors to cocreate products and cooperate with nontraditional and fringe stakeholders to reduce resource dependency. Local capacity building, which means improving the local environment, is only applied by companies when strong partnerships with nontraditional and fringe stakeholders are established. Finally, the study shows that partnerships with nontraditional and fringe stakeholders as well as local capacity building have a positive effect on organizational performance. Thus, when companies aim to enter low‐income markets, they should not follow the recommendation of the transaction cost theory and internalize resources, but rather cooperate with nontraditional partners and invest in the local environment. Moreover, the study shows that market entries into low‐income markets require long‐term commitments to engage in partnerships with regional authorities, local community groups, and nongovernmental organizations. Without these partnerships, it is not possible to reduce high resource dependencies and to establish successful businesses in low‐income markets. Thus, governments should create general conditions that facilitate the creation of partnerships between nontraditional actors and companies, and assist them to improve environmental conditions in these markets.     

Targeting in advertising markets: implications for offline versus online media

We develop a model with many advertisers (products) and many advertising markets (media). Each advertiser sells to a different segment of consumers, and each medium is targeting a different audience. We characterize the competitive equilibrium in the advertising markets and evaluate the implications of targeting. An increase in targeting leads to an increase in the total number of consumer‐product matches, and hence in the social value of advertising. Yet, targeting also increases the concentration of firms advertising in each market. Surprisingly, we then find that the equilibrium price of advertisements is first increasing, then decreasing, in the targeting capacity. We trace out the implications of targeting for competing media. We distinguish offline and online media by their targeting ability: low versus high. As consumers’ relative exposure to online media increases, the revenues of offline media decrease, even though the price of advertising might increase.     

Dressed to merge — small fits fine: M&A success in the fashion and accessories industry

In this paper we examine the value implications of 192 M&A transactions in the fashion and leather accessories industry during the period from 1994 to 2009. Contrary to general cross-country evidence we find highly significant, positive abnormal returns to acquiring shareholders. Cross-sectional analysis further reveals that the key value drivers are diversifying fashion M&A transactions for smaller, profitable companies that reduce idiosyncratic risk whereas deals executed by large companies that act as frequent acquirers do not, on average, significantly enhance shareholder wealth.     

IPO underpricing,signaling, and property returns

This paper investigates whether IPO signals reveal proprietary information about the prospects of an issuing firm’s underlying industry. By analyzing a sample of European property company (EPC) IPOs from 1997 to 2007, we take advantage of a heterogeneous set of industry performance measures, i.e., yields and total returns of direct property investments in various European property markets that can be clearly assigned to each individual IPO. The results reveal that the main signal of interest, underpricing, is in fact positively related to average property yields for a 12-month post-IPO period; a result that supports our assumption. Other signals, as proposed in previous research, do not appear to contain any information about the prospects of the IPO firm’s target property investment market. We also show that total returns seem to be a biased measure for direct property performance. Further tests for the signaling model’s preconditioned presence of information asymmetry among EPCs reveal that underpricing levels are a function of company-specific ex ante uncertainty proxies. In contrast, property-specific ex ante uncertainty proxies do not explain underpricing levels.     

On the multiplicity of option prices under CEV with positive elasticity of variance

The discounted stock price under the Constant Elasticity of Variance model is not a martingale when the elasticity of variance is positive. Two expressions for the European call price then arise, namely the price for which put-call parity holds and the price that represents the lowest cost of replicating the call option’s payoffs. The greeks of European put and call prices are derived and it is shown that the greeks of the risk-neutral call can substantially differ from standard results. For instance, the relation between the call price and variance may become non-monotonic. Such unfamiliar behavior then might yield option-based tests for the potential presence of a bubble in the underlying stock price.     

The bond event study methodology since 1974

In the spirit of methodology reviews for stock event studies, like the one prepared by Binder (Rev Quant Financ Account 11:111–137, 1998), this paper discusses the development of the event study methodology for corporate bonds since its first application with Katz (J Financ 29:551–559, 1974). The motivation to conduct this review stems from two sources: First, the methodology utilized for stocks cannot simply be applied to bonds, as bonds present several features that strongly distinguish them from stocks. An erroneous model could lead to false conclusions about the impact of new information on a firm’s debt. Second, the availability of new sources for bond data enables the application of bond event studies for an increasing number of research frameworks. Thus, future research ought to be interested in the selection of the proper methodology. Consequently, this paper illustrates past and present event study methods utilized to calculate abnormal bond returns and reviews the applied parametric and non-parametric test statistics. Besides, insight on how the availability of corporate bond data has evolved through the last four decades, as well as the impact on prevailing methodology is provided. Altogether, this paper provides a first extensive snapshot of the current bond event study methodology and offers guidance for future research.     

A note on estimating the divisional cost of capital for diversified companies: an empirical evaluation of heuristic-based approaches

This note provides an empirical analysis of the potential for heuristic-based approaches to derive a divisional cost of equity from a firm's total cost of capital. Since an empirical relationship between fundamental information and systematic risk has previously been shown in other studies, idiosyncratic information on risk and performance ought to serve as a good proxy to calculate divisional adjustments. Two practically used, heuristic-based approaches are tested and a significant relationship is found between one of the measures and CAPM beta. This method may offer a plausible and comparatively uncomplicated method for adjusting a firm's total cost of capital for divisional use.     

Experimentation in Markets

We present a model of entry and exit with Bayesian learning and price competition. A new product of initially unknown quality is introduced in the market, and purchases of the product yield information on its true quality. We assume that the performance of the new product is publicly observable. As agents learn from the experiments of others, informational externalities arise.
We determine the Markov Perfect Equilibrium prices and allocations. In a single market, the combination of the informational externalities among the buyers and the strategic pricing by the sellers results in excessive experimentation. If the new product is launched in many distinct markets, the path of sales converges to the efficient path in the limit as the number of markets grows.     

A Tale of Two Models: Comparing structuralist and neoclassical computable general equilibrium models for South Africa

This paper compares two working models of the South African economy, an orthodox, neoclassical computable general equilibrium model in which savings drive investment, and a more structuralist, eclectic, model for which there is an independent investment function. Both models are calibrated to the same social accounting matrix. Comparative statics of simplified prototype models are presented and identical simulations with the corresponding applied versions are compared. It is seen that the neoclassical model fully supports the principles of the 'Washington Consensus' while the structuralist model requires a far more heterodox set of policies to avoid slow growth or high inflation.