Towards a Measure of Core Inflation using Singular Spectrum Analysis

This paper constructs a number of possible core measures of inflation using singular spectrum analysis (SSA). Annual changes in monthly inflation are decomposed into its trend, oscillatory and noise components in order to develop an understanding of the trend and cyclicality in South African headline inflation. Three cyclical components with differing amplitude and frequency are identified. The trend and cyclical components of inflation are found to be a good approximation of core inflation, the inertial part of inflation. These core measures are compared with other candidate core measures based on the properties of a good core inflation measure. Generally, the SSA measures outperform commonly used measures of core inflation based on both in‐ and out‐of‐sample performance.     

The Chinese in Britain: working towards success?

The Chinese community has made rapid socio-economic advancement Britain over the course of one generation. This paper examines the influences of culture and structure in determining the remarkable levels of attainments made by the Chinese Britain. In addition, the impacts of culture and structure in circumscribing occupational choices of the Chinese in Britain are also explored, since somewhat marring this image of success is the occupational segregation of the Chinese in the labour market. The human resource implication of this latter situation is that there exists a valuable source of qualified Chinese labour currently engaged in the ethnic niche, particularly Chinese catering industry, which could be better utilized in the wider labour market. It suggested that responsibility to address this issue reducing such 'wastage', involves efforts of three parties, namely, the Chinese themselves, careers counsellors, as well organizations in Britain.     

Path‐dependent currency options with mean reversion

This paper develops a path‐dependent currency option pricing framework in which the exchange rate follows a mean‐reverting lognormal process. Analytical solutions are derived for barrier options with a constant barrier, lookback options, and turbo warrants. As the analytical solutions are obtained using a Laplace transform, this study numerically shows that the solution implemented with a numerical Laplace inversion is efficient and accurate. The pricing behavior of path‐dependent options with mean reversion is contrasted with the Black‐Scholes model. © 2008 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 28:275–293, 2008     

Dynamic Costs of the Draft

Abstract. We propose a dynamic general‐equilibrium model with human capital accumulation to evaluate the economic consequences of compulsory services (such as military draft or social work). Our analysis identifies a so far ignored dynamic cost arising from distortions in time allocation over the life cycle. We provide conservative estimates for the excess burden that arises when the government relies on forced labor rather than on income taxation to finance public expenditures. Our results suggest that eliminating the draft could produce considerable dynamic gains, both in terms of GDP and lifetime utility.     

Additionality of public R&D grants in a transition economy

This paper examines the input and output additionality of public R&D subsidies in Western and Eastern Germany. We estimate the impact of public R&D grants on firms’ R&D and innovation input. Based on the results of this first step we compare the impact of publicly funded private R&D on innovation output with the output effect of R&D funded out of firms’ own pockets. We employ microeconometric evaluation methods using firm‐level data derived from the Mannheim Innovation Panel. Our results point towards a large degree of additionality in public R&D grants with regard to innovation input measured as R&D expenditures and innovation expenditures, as well as with regard to innovation output measured by patent applications. Input additionality has been more pronounced in Eastern Germany during the transition period than in Western Germany. However, R&D productivity is still larger for the established Western German innovation system than for Eastern Germany. Hence, a regional redistribution of public R&D subsidies might improve the overall innovation output of the German economy.     

Wrapped input selection using multilayer perceptrons for repeat‐purchase modeling in direct marketing

In this paper, we try to validate existing theory on and develop additional insight into repeat‐purchase behavior in a direct marketing setting by means of an illuminating case study. The case involves the detection and qualification of the most relevant RFM (Recency, Frequency and Monetary) variables, using a neural network wrapper as our input pruning method. Results indicate that elimination of redundant and/or irrelevant inputs by means of the discussed input selection method allows us to significantly reduce model complexity without degrading the predictive generalization ability. It is precisely this issue that will enable us to infer some interesting marketing conclusions concerning the relative importance of the RFM predictor categories and their operationalizations. The empirical findings highlight the importance of a combined use of RFM variables in predicting repeat‐purchase behavior. However, the study also reveals the dominant role of the frequency category. Results indicate that a model including only frequency variables still yields satisfactory classification accuracy compared to the optimally reduced model. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Asymmetric Properties of Office Rent Adjustment

In this paper we use an error correction model for understanding the changes in real office rents for a panel of 15 U.S. MSA’s over the period 1990-2007. We find that office rents in all cities react positively to a rise in office employment and lagged rent changes, while lagged deviations from equilibrium rent levels exhibit a slow and partial adjustment over time. Given the non-negativity constraint of vacancy rates we extend the basic model by examining whether rents react to positive changes in employment conditional on the vacancy rate level. Our results show that office rents react significantly stronger to increases in employment when vacancy rates are below the long-term average. We also repeat the analysis for clusters of cities based on similarities in rent and employment dynamics using multi dimensional scaling. The cluster results confirm the overall conclusions and show that our results are not solely valid for the full panel of cities.