The term structure of interest rates and the Mexican economy

Can the yield spread, which has been found to predict with surprising accuracy the movement of key macroeconomic variables of developed countries, also predict such variables for a developing country experiencing economic turmoil? This article presents empirical results that suggest significant forecasting ability for the yield spread for segments of the Mexican economy during the 1995–1997 period of economic volatility. The actual and predicted variable changes sometimes conflict with those experienced by developed countries in part because of the unusually close relationship between the Mexican Treasury and the Banco de México. Consequently, analysts and policy officials may exploit the forecast potential of the yield spread, but only in the context of evolving institutional considerations.     

The social cost problem,rights, and the (non)empty core

We revisit the “Coase theorem” through the lens of a cooperative game model which takes into account the assignment of rights among agents involved in a problem of social cost. We consider the case where one polluter interacts with many potential victims. Given an assignment or a mapping of rights, we represent a social cost problem by a cooperative game. A solution consists in a payoff vector. We introduce three properties for a mapping of rights. First, core compatibility indicates that the core of the associated cooperative games is nonempty. Second, Kaldor‐Hicks core compatibility indicates that there is a payoff vector in the core where victims are fully compensated for the damage once the negotiations are completed. Third, no veto power for a victim says that no victim has the power to veto an agreement signed by the rest of the society. We then demonstrate two main results. First, core compatibility is satisfied if and only if the rights are assigned either to the polluter or to the entire set of victims. Second, there is no mapping of rights satisfying Kaldor‐Hicks core compatibility and no veto power for a victim.     

Stochastic search variable selection in vector error correction models with an application to a model of the UK macroeconomy

This paper develops methods for stochastic search variable selection (currently popular with regression and vector autoregressive models) for vector error correction models where there are many possible restrictions on the cointegration space. We show how this allows the researcher to begin with a single unrestricted model and either do model selection or model averaging in an automatic and computationally efficient manner. We apply our methods to a large UK macroeconomic model. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Franchising in Spain: Agency and capital scarcity perspectives

Franchising is currently perhaps the most interesting formula, financially speaking, for generating self-employment, as the capital risk on the investment needed to set up a business is kept to a minimum. Since the aim of this research is to combine the agency and scarcity theories, we conducted a study throughout the total number of observations existing in Spain to determine the importance of the sector. Factors under examination included the number of distribution units that are franchised units as a proportion of the total number of units, the number of years since the firm was set up, yearly growth rate, geographical scope of operation, average start-up costs and average royalty rates.     

Are the Discounts in Seasoned Equity Offers Due to Inelastic Demand?

This paper investigates the large and diverse discounts in UK open offers and placings. Large discounts are a substantial cost to shareholders who do not buy new shares. The existing literature mainly examines US firm‐commitment offers and private placements. The institutional setting differs in the UK, in ways that make the theory of inelastic demand for shares more important as an explanation for discounts than in the US. The paper finds that inelastic demand, or illiquidity of the issuer's shares, and financial distress, are key determinants of the discount. We expect these results to apply to other stock markets.     

LATIN AMERICAN EXCHANGE RATE DEPENDENCIES: A REGULAR VINE COPULA APPROACH

This study implements a regular vine copula methodology to evaluate the level of contagion among the exchange rates of six Latin American countries (Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, and Peru) from June 2005 to April 2012. We measure contagion in terms of tail dependence coefficients, following Fratzscher's (1999) definition of contagion as interdependence. Our results indicate that these countries are divided into two blocks. The first block consists of Brazil, Colombia, Chile, and Mexico, whose exchange rates exhibit the largest dependence coefficients, and the second block consists of Argentina and Peru, whose exchange rate dependence coefficients with other Latin American countries are low. We also found that most of the Latin American exchange rate pairs exhibit asymmetric behaviors characterized by nonsignificant upper tail dependence and significant lower tail dependence. These results imply that there exists contagion in Latin American exchange rates in periods of large appreciations, whereas there is no evidence of contagion during periods of currency depreciation. This empirical regularity may reflect the “fear of appreciation” in emerging economies identified by Levy‐Yeyati, Sturzenegger, and Gluzmann (2013). (JEL C32, C51, E42)     

Internationalisation speed and technological patterns: A panel data study on Spanish SMEs

The last ten years has seen a proliferation of works attempting to explain why some firms internationalise rapidly, rather than following a sequential process. Many of these works have focused on the role of technology as the driving force behind the phenomenon. Following this argument, this work studies the effect that different technological patterns have on firms' internationalisation speed. In order to observe this effect, a sample of 945 SMEs was used over a 17-year period (1990–2006). By undertaking a micro-level analysis, we explain the possible effect of sectoral technological intensity on internationalisation speed, observing significant differences between technology-intensive and non-intensive sectors, and identify which technological parameters have a greater effect on the acceleration of internationalisation in each of these sectors.     

Leveraging competitiveness upon national cultural traits: the management of people in Brazilian companies

This paper aims to discuss the leveraging of competitiveness upon cultural traits. Since the globalization process has raised a series of challenges for companies around the world, companies have sought to respond mainly through the adoption of management practices proved to be successful elsewhere. However, due to the anchoring of many management practices, especially those of human resources, in the socio-cultural context of a country, the import and/or transfer of management practices between different contexts risk resulting in changes which may be only superficial. There are, however, some exceptions. Some managers have chosen to build their companies' competitiveness through management practices firmly anchored on the cultural traits of their countries, instead of looking for practices from successful companies. This process is obviously not simple because it requires from company leaders first the capacity to re-signify the cultural trait in a different manner, i.e. to perceive it as a source of competitiveness for the company and, second, the competence to build a management practice upon this cultural trait so that it will leverage the competitiveness of the company. In order to illustrate how typical cultural traits from a country may leverage the competitiveness of a company, we present the case of Natura, a Brazilian cosmetics manufacturer, which has constructed much of its competitiveness through the adoption of management practices anchored in some typical Brazilian cultural traits. The analysis of the case demonstrates that this process of developing competitive management practices is feasible, but it must be based upon a solid system of values that the team leader practises or wants practised. Otherwise, it is unlikely that the management practices will stand or that people will be committed to them.