International trade policies,industrialization, and economic development

During the 1950s and 1960s, most developing nations, particularly the larger ones, strongly opted for a policy of import substitution industrialization (ISI). This was based on heavy protection and generally led to very inefficient industries. Since the early 1970s, an increasing number of developing countries deregulated their economies and liberalized trade, and this stimulated efficiency and growth. Some developing nations also tried strategic trade policies and to endogenize growth (as postulated by endogenous growth theory), but with only limited success. It seems impossible and inconsistent under the new international trade rules, however, for other developing countries to duplicate the East Asia “miracle,” which was based on strong government support for domestic industry while stimulating competition and efficiency among domestic firms. The successful completion of the Uruguay Round is expected to greatly benefit developing countries through continued deregulation and increased access to developed-country markets.     

Treatment patterns,healthcare resource utilization,and costs in patients with acute myeloid leukemia in commercially insured and Medicare populations

Objective: To describe the setting, duration, and costs of induction and consolidation chemotherapy for adults with newly-diagnosed acute myeloid leukemia (AML), who are candidates for standard induction chemotherapy, in the US.

Methods: Adults newly-diagnosed with AML who received standard induction chemotherapy in an inpatient setting were identified from the Truven Health Analytics MarketScan (2006–2015) and SEER-Medicare (2007–2011) databases. Patients were observed from induction therapy start to the first of hematopoietic stem cell transplant, 180 days after induction discharge, health plan enrollment/data availability end, or death. Induction and consolidation chemotherapy were identified using Diagnosis-Related Group codes (chemotherapy with acute leukemia) or procedure codes for AML chemotherapy administration. AML treatment episode setting (inpatient or outpatient), duration, and costs (2015 USD, payers’ perspective) were described for commercially insured patients and Medicare beneficiaries.

Results: In total, 459 commercially insured patients and 563 Medicare beneficiaries (mean age?=?54 and 66 years; 53% and 54% male; respectively) were identified. For induction therapy, mean costs were $145,189 for commercially insured patients and $85,734 for Medicare beneficiaries, and median inpatient duration was 31 days (both). Following induction, 64% of commercially insured patients and 53% of Medicare beneficiaries had ≥1 consolidation cycle; 75% and 65% of consolidation cycles were in an inpatient setting, respectively. For consolidation cycles, in the inpatient setting, mean costs were $28,137 for commercially insured patients and $28,843 for Medicare beneficiaries, median cycle duration was 6 days (both); in the outpatient setting, mean costs were $11,271 for commercially insured patients and $5,803 Medicare beneficiaries, median duration was 5 days (both).

Limitations: Granular information on chemotherapy type administered was unavailable.

Conclusions: This is the first exploratory study providing a complete picture of recent AML treatment patterns and management costs among commercially insured patients and Medicare beneficiaries. There is substantial heterogeneity in the management and costs of AML.     

Capital flows,current account deficits,and financial crises in emerging market economies

Some emerging market economies are said to face today conditions similar to those faced by Mexico in 1994 at the time of its serious financial crisis. This paper identifies a number of macroeconomic and financial indicators, constructs a profile of the Mexican economy at the time of the crisis, and then compares these with the conditions in other major emerging market economies in Latin America and Asia today in order to determine the extent to which they resemble those of Mexico at the time of the 1994 crisis. The conclusion is reached that macroeconomic and financial indicators cannot by themselves predict Mexican-style financial crises. In today's world of highly integrated capital markets, any anticipation of financial unsustainability can lead to a massive capital outflow from the nation and trigger a crisis, with the catalyst usually being a worsening political problem. The usefulness of the indicators discussed is in providing a profile of the financial condition of the nation, evaluating the potential danger of a financial crisis, anticipating the depth of the crisis if one arises, and pointing to the precautions that a nation can take in trying to avoid a crisis or reduce its severity if one does occur.     

Consumer Associations with the “All Natural” Food Label

“All natural” food labels have become increasingly popular in recent decades. Labels may communicate to consumers a level of food quality above that of unlabeled products. In April 2011, a nationally representative survey was conducted asking respondents to estimate the likelihood that they will increase purchasing in response to an “all natural” label on food products. The sample totaled 1,000 respondents, with 49% being male and 35% between the ages of 45 and 64. Demographic information includes gender, age, income, region, and education. Ordered logit models were used to estimate the likelihood of changes in purchasing based on the “all natural” label. This stated that intended behavior change was evaluated using the ordered logit estimates for nine products: beef, pork, poultry, ice cream, yogurt, cheese, milk, soft dairy products, and bread and bakery products. For all products, being male and having too little information at grocery stores decreased the likelihood of purchase. Conversely, those respondents, who associate the “all natural” label with no preservatives, perceived such products to have improved taste, improved nutritional value, and improved food safety increased the likelihood of purchase.     

Negotiating without a net. A conversation with the NYPD's Dominick J. Misino

In some languages, the word for "business" is the same as the word for "negotiation." That's not really surprising: Every interaction--with customers, suppliers, and even partners and investors--entails negotiation. And some involve very high stakes: The breakdown in negotiations between Hewlett-Packard's management and its founding families, for instance, put the company's future in doubt. Dominick Misino is a man who knows about negotiating when the stakes are at their very highest. As a hostage negotiator for the New York Police Department, Misino successfully persuaded the hijacker of Lufthansa Flight 592 to lay down his gun and turn himself in. Misino spent the last six years of his career as a primary negotiator, handling more than 200 incidents and never losing a life. Since his retirement in 1995, he has taught negotiating skills to law enforcement officials, military personnel, and business executives. Anyone can become a crisis negotiator, Misino contends. It takes what he calls "applied common sense." Be polite. Listen. Acknowledge the other guy's point of view (no matter what it is). But it's clear that in dealing with hijackers, kidnappers, and child molesters, Misino is far from passive. Negotiation, he says, is really a series of small agreements, and he is adept at orchestrating those agreements from the start so that his adversary learns to trust him and come around to his point of view. In vivid and sometimes hair-raising detail, Misino demonstrates how he gets criminals to trust police officers enough to refrain from harming innocent parties and give themselves up. Many of the techniques he describes are surprisingly applicable to business negotiations, where the parties may seem equally intractable and failure is not an option.     

Oil import costs and domestic inflation in industrial countries

Zusammenfassung Kosten der ?limporte und heimische Inflation in Industriel?ndern.- In diesem Aufsatz wird das monet?re Modell erweitert, um zu untersuchen, welche Bedeutung der kr?ftige Anstieg der Preise und Ausgaben für importiertes Erd?l in den Industriestaaten von Herbst 1973 bis heute hatte und über welche Kan?le er sich auswirkte. Die empirischen Ergebnisse zeigen, da\ die Inflation vorwiegend durch die Abwertung der W?hrung des Einfuhrlandes “importiert” wurde, die sich aus den stark gestiegenen Einfuhrrechnungen für Erd?l ergab, und weniger durch die Erh?hung der Erd?lpreise selbst, der L?hne oder Haushaltsdefizite. Die Zunahme der Geldversorgung und inflation?ren Erwartungen sind für die Erkl?rung der heimischen Inflation weit wichtiger, wenn es sich um Entwicklungsl?nder und nicht um Industriel?nder handelt. Das Gegenteil gilt hinsichtlich der Ausweitung der heimischen Produktion und Preiserh?hung für importiertes Erd?l.

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Résumé Co?ts de pétrole importé et l’inflation locale dans les pays industriels. - Dans cet article l’auteur étend le modèle monétaire pour examiner le mécanisme et l’effet de l’augmentation forte du prix et des dépenses pour le pétrole importé sur l’inflation dans les pays industriels à partir de la fin 1973 jusqu’aujourd’hui. Les résultats empiriques démontrent que l’inflation apparamment fut importée particulièrement par les dévaluations des monnaies des pays d’importation résultant de leurs dépenses fortement accrues pour le pétrole importé au lieu de directement par l’augmentation des prix pétroliers eux-mêmes ou par l’augmentation des salaires industriels et des déficits budgétaires. L’ augmentation de la masse monétaire et les expectatives inflationnistes sont beaucoup plus importantes comme explication de l’inflation locale dans les pays en voie de développement que pour les pays industriels pendant que le contraire est vrai pour l’expansion de la production locale et l’augmentation du prix de pétrole importé.

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Resumen El costo del petróleo importado y la inflación interna en los países industrializados.- En este trabajo se extiende el modelo monetario para examinar el impacto de las manifestaciones y la importancia relativa del aumento del precio del petróleo y del gasto para importarlo sobre la inflación en los países industrializados a partir del oto?o de 1973. Los resultados empíricos demuestran que la inflación pareciera haber sido importada através de las devaluaciones de las monedas de los países importadores, debido más al importante aumento de las importaciones que al aumento de los precios mismos del petróleo, o que a aumentos de los salarios industriales o del déficit fiscal. Los aumentos de la oferta monetaria y de las expectativas inflacionarias tienen mayor importancia para explicar la inflación interna en los países en desarrollo que en los países industrializados, mientras que sucede lo contrario con la expansión de la producción nacional y con el aumento del precio del petróleo importado.

     

Exponential Hedging and Entropic Penalties

We solve the problem of hedging a contingent claim B by maximizing the expected exponential utility of terminal net wealth for a locally bounded semimartingale X . We prove a duality relation between this problem and a dual problem for local martingale measures Q for X where we either minimize relative entropy minus a correction term involving B or maximize the Q -price of B subject to an entropic penalty term. Our result is robust in the sense that it holds for several choices of the space of hedging strategies. Applications include a new characterization of the minimal martingale measure and risk-averse asymptotics.