The Expectation of Products of Quadratic Forms in Normal Variables

Summary  A complete explicit formula for the expectation of the product of an arbitrary number of quadratic forms in normally distributed variables is derived, extending and confirming recent results of M agnus [4]. Incidentally, some results on traces of matrix products are presented.     

ELECTRIC UTILITY DEMAND-SIDE MANAGEMENT IN POLAND

Demand-Side Management (DSM) improves load factors and energy efficiency and reduces emissions. DSM methods are understood in the United States, but using DSM in Poland poses problems related to constraints in the power sector and the economic environment. This paper discusses the reorganization of the Polish energy sector and Polish energy policy during in the transition since 1989 and discusses the obstacles to implementing DSM programs.     

The Predictive Ability of Geographic Segment Information at the Country, Continent, and Consolidated Levels

This study examines whether geographic information disclosed at an increasingly disaggregated level (specifically, consolidated vs. continent vs. country) results in increased predictive ability of company operations (specifically, sales, gross profit, and earnings). Multinational corporations (MNCs) are formed using a simulated merger approach by combining the annual operating results of six individual firms, one from each of six countries. This approach makes it possible to compare the forecasting accuracy of data disclosed at the country, continent, and consolidated levels, not possible using current geographic segment disclosures. Previous studies using year-ahead forecast models implicitly assume the predictive factors included in the models are significant in forecasting operating results. Using regression forecast models, this study tests whether the predictive factors included in the models are effective in forecasting operating results by examining the direction, size, and significance of the regression coefficient estimates. The coefficients provide evidence that exchange rate changes, inflation, and real GNP growth are useful in forecasting annual sales and gross profit. Whereas, at least for this sample and this time period, exchange rate changes, inflation, and real GNP growth are not significant variables in forecasting annual earnings. The results indicate that the accuracy of forecasts increase as sales and gross profit are disclosed at a more disaggregated geographic level. The hypothesized relationship between consolidated, continent, and country levels, while holding strongly under perfect foresight, holds to a lesser extent using forecasts of exchange rates, inflation, and real GNP.     

TRADING TIME EFFECTS IN FINANCIAL AND COMMODITY FUTURES MARKETS

Through the examination of one commodity contract, soybeans, and one financial contract, U.S. Treasury bonds, the authors test to determine (1) whether mean rates of return during trading times differ from mean rates of return during nontrading times; (2) whether mean returns during trading times and nontrading times differ by day of the week; (3) whether trading time returns differ significantly from previous nontrading time returns; and (4) the extent to which trading and previous nontrading returns are correlated. In addition, the authors empirically examine a possible explanation for the results obtained.     

Challenges in quantitative economic analysis in support of multilateral trade negotiations

A wide range of economic analysis of agricultural trade liberalization was performed prior to and during the Uruguay Round of trade negotiations. Views differ as to the effectiveness of this research, although most would agree that it became less relevant as the negotiations progressed. This paper reviews the contributions of economists to the trade liberalization debate, with an emphasis on the quantitative assessment of multilateral agricultural trade liberalization. With a new round of agricultural trade negotiations scheduled to begin in 1999 it is crucial that the quantitative work required to support these negotiations begin in the near future. The authors conclude that the Uruguay Round outcome provides numerous challenges and opportunities in analyzing the traditional agenda of agricultural trade liberalization. In addition, new issues will be added to the agenda of the next round of negotiations. These include: trade and the environment, competition policy and intellectual property rights. It is important that economists begin to develop a research agenda that can address these issues and become activists in addressing these topics in public forums.     

The accounting of interpretations and the interpretation of accounts: The communicative function of “the language of business”

The objectivistic philosophical assumptions which underlie contemporary research in accountancy, as well as economics and elsewhere, are challenged and an interpretive alternative is proposed. A “hermeneutical” view of decision-making is examined, first with regard to science in general, and then concerning the human sciences in particular, and finally with regard to economics. Human decisions are not seen as objective, mechanical or behavioristic but as meaningful utterances of minds, as part of a bidirectional communicative process. That is, scientific decisions, like everyday decisions, are mutually interpretive processes of communication in language. Although it is true that much of mainstream neoclassical economics is incompatible with this interpretive approach, the “Austrian” school can be seen as an interpretive version of neoclassicism. This school of economics indicates a way to understand the communicative function the accounting “language” itself serves in the economic process. The professional judgments made by both accounting researchers and practicing accountants, then, are treated as “matters of interpretation,” but as not, thereby, arbitrary.     

Market index returns,macroeconomic variables,and tax-loss selling

This study provides the most direct macro-level test to date of the tax-loss selling hypothesis as an explanation of the January effect. By examining relationships between macroeconomic variables that should be related to tax-loss selling and market index measures of the January effect, this study provides an approach that addresses the market microstructure problems that are inherent in much of the prior research regarding tax-loss selling. This study also addresses some of the methodological and variable specification concerns in prior macro-level testing, resulting in stronger support for taxloss selling. The authors wish to acknowledge the editor and anonymous referees for helpful comments and suggestions.