Price Discrimination and Pricing to Market Behavior of Canadian Canola Exporters

The role of exchange rate fluctuation on the pricing behavior of Canadian canola exporters to Japan, Mexico, and the U.S. is examined using a model identifying noncompetitive and exchange rate related pricing behavior. Price discrimination was identified for Canadian canola exports to the three destinations over the period of 1993–99. Results also suggest that Pricing to Market strategies were employed for Japanese imports. Canadian canola exporters used local currency price stabilization to dampen the effects of relative price changes in the Japanese currency, perhaps linked to the large size of Japanese imports relative to Mexico and the U.S.     

ECONOMIC EFFECTIVENESS OF BRAND ADVERTISING PROGRAMMES FOR U.S. ORANGE JUICE IN THE EUROPEAN MARKET: AN ERROR COMPONENT ANALYSIS

An econometric model is used to measure the impact of the Three-Party Programme on European demand for U.S. orange juice. The results show that the programme has helped expand the demand for orange juice in European countries and, from the viewpoint of the U.S. citrus industry, is an economically preferred way of generating additional exports compared with using price reductions to achieve additional sales.     

Niche Entry as a Route to Mainstream Innovation: Learning from the Phosphoric Acid Fuel Cell in Stationary Power

The paper charts the efforts to establish a successful niche position for the phosphoric acid fuel cell (PAFC) in stationary power generation, as a precursor to wider technological system and regime change. Market entry depends on matching price/performance characteristics to a niche, and improving performance through increasing returns, the most important and immediate of which are ‘learning effects’. The paper identifies five types of learning effect: (i) migrating the technology to other niches and into the mainstream; (ii) opening the way for other technologies that may have greater scope for migration; (iii) transferring learning within the pioneering company to other technologies or products; (iv) transferring experience to others in the industry; and (v) enabling users to learn. Although PAFC may be perceived as a failure in some respects, a wider perspective suggests it has made a positive and useful contribution to learning.     

“连接自然与文化” ① ：西方哲学背景下 的全球议题

文化遗产保护是动态发展的概念，总结了文化景观 的3类意义：1)文化景观作为物质实体；2)文化景观作为概念 和过程；3)文化景观作为方法和工具。指出当前世界遗产及 文化景观保护中存在的自然和文化分离现象，揭示了西方哲学 的二元两分法的背景根源。介绍了IUCN和ICOMOS为融合 自然与文化而进行的“连接实践项目”和“自然文化之旅”2 个项目，推广他们在不同地理和文化背景下，为更好地连接自 然与文化遗产的治理和管理实践所作出的杰出贡献和引领作 用，主张非西方原住民社区、地方社区应该在推进“自然文化 之旅”工作中占有核心地位。     

Forecasting UK house prices: A time varying coefficient approach

Previous studies of UK house prices, developed from the demand and supply ofhousing or from the asset market approach have been poor in terms of robustness and ex-post forecasting ability. The UK housing market has suffered a number of structural changes, particularly since the early 1980s with substantial house price increases, financial market deregulation and the removal of mortgage market constraints through competition. Consequently, models which assume that the underlying data-generating process is stable and apply constant parameter techniques tend to suffer in terms of parameter instability. This article uses the Time Varying Coefficient (TVC) methodology where the underlying data-generating process in the UK housing market is treated as unstable. The estimation results of the TVC regression of UK house prices is compared with those obtained from three alternative constant parameter regressions. Comparisons of forecasting performance suggest the TVC regression out-performs forecasts from an Error Correction Mechanism (ECM), Vector Autoregressive (VAR) and an Autoregressive Time Series regression.     

OR vice: Forecasting and classification techniques for narcotics interdiction

Counternarcotics interdiction efforts have traditionally relied on historically determined sorting criteria or “best guess” to find and classify suspected smuggling traffic. We present a more quantitative approach which incorporates customized database applications, graphics software and statistical modeling techniques to develop forecasting and classification models. Preliminary results show that statistical methodology can improve interdiction rates and reduce forecast error. The idea of predictive modeling is thus gaining support in the counterdrug community. The problem is divided into sea, air and land forecasting, only part of which will be addressed here. The maritime problem is solved using multiple regression in lieu of multivariate time series. This model predicts illegal boat counts by behavior and geographic region. We developed support software to present the forecasts and to automate the process of performing periodic model updates. During the period, the model was in use at. Coast Guard Headquarters. Because of deterrence provided by improved intervention, the vessel seizure rate declined from 1 every 36 hours to 1 every 6 months. Due in part to the success of the sea model, the maritime movement of marijuana has ceased to be a major threat. The air problem is more complex, and required us to locally design data collection and display software. Intelligence analysts are using a customized relational database application with a map overlay to perform visual pattern recognition of smuggling routes. We are solving the modeling portion of the air problem using multiple regression for regional forecasts of traffic density, and discriminant analysis to develop tactical models that classify “good guys” and “bad guys”. The air models are still under development, but we discuss some modeling considerations and preliminary results. The land problem is even more difficult, and data collection is still in progress.     

The Spillover Effect of SEC Comment Letters on Qualitative Corporate Disclosure: Evidence from the Risk Factor Disclosure

In this study we use the recently mandated risk factor disclosure to examine the spillover effect of the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) review of qualitative corporate disclosure. We find that firms not receiving any comment letter (“No‐letter Firms”) modify their subsequent year's disclosures to a larger extent if the SEC has commented on the risk factor disclosure of (i) the industry leader, (ii) a close rival, or (iii) numerous industry peers. We refer to this effect as “spillover.” Further, we find that after SEC comments on the industry leader's disclosure, No‐letter Firms also provide more firm‐specific disclosures in the subsequent year. The increased disclosure specificity reduces these firms’ likelihood of receiving SEC risk disclosure comments on their new filings. Our evidence suggests an indirect effect of the SEC review of qualitative disclosure.