The Intertemporal Causal Dynamics Between Fixed Capital Formation and Economic Growth in The Group-Of-Seven Countries *

The debate between De Long and Summers (1991, 1992) and Blomstrom, Lipsey and Zejan (1996) who reported conflicting results on the relationship between fixed capital formation and economic growth raised doubts on whether changes in a country's capital formation shares in GDP have an influence on its future growth rates. This paper addresses the issue again by examining the causal patterns between the share of fixed investment in GDP and the growth rate of per capital real GDP on an individual country basis, using time series on each of the group-of-seven countries. The empirical results suggest that the causal relationship between these variables may vary significantly across the major industrialized countries that presumably belong to the same growth group. Most importantly, no consistent evidence is found that causality is running in only one direction. Rather, causality between fixed investment and growth seems to have a country-specific nature and may run in either directions.     

The dynamics of transitions in socio-technical systems: A multi-level analysis of the transition pathway from horse-drawn carriages to automobiles (1860–1930)

This article investigates transitions at the level of societal functions (e.g. transport, communication, housing). Societal functions are fulfilled by socio-technical systems, which consist of a cluster of aligned elements, e.g. artefacts, knowledge, user practices and markets, regulation, cultural meaning, infrastructure, maintenance networks and supply networks. To understand how transitions from one socio-technical system to another come about, the article describes a conceptual multi-level perspective. The perspective is illustrated with a historical case study: the transition from horse-drawn carriages to automobiles in the USA (1860–1930). The case study shows that technological substitution approaches to this transition are too simple, because they neglect the electric tram and bicycle, which acted as important stepping stones. The case study also corrects another mistake, namely that the gasoline car won by chance from steam and electric automobiles. It will be shown that particular niches played a crucial role in this competition, as well as the wider socio-technical context. The case study deviates on three points from the multi-level perspective. These deviations are used to conceptualize a particular transition pathway, called ‘de-alignment and re-alignment’.     

Book review

Built by Japan: Competitive Straegies of the Japanese Construction Industry, Fumio Hasegawa & Shimizu Group FS New York, John Wiley & amp; Sons, 1988, 204 pp., US$25.00.

Technological Change at Work Ian McLouglin & Jon Clark Milton Keynes, Open University Press, 1988, 202 pp., Pb £9.00, Hb £25.00.

Enterprising Innovation: An Alternative Approach Veronica Mole & Dave Elliott London, Frances Pinter, 1987, pp. 180.

Flexible Automation: The Global Diffusion of New Technology in the Engineering Industry Charles Edquist Jacobsson Oxford, Basil Blackwell, 1988, Hb £35.00.

Expert Systems: Strategic Implications and Applications A. Beerel Chichester, Ellis Horwood Ltd, 1988, 173 pp., £22.50.     

Overnight Covered Interest Parity:Theory and Practice

This study shows, both theoretically and empirically, that in a world where capital as well as exchange markets are imperfect it is incorrect to employ mid-market rates to estimate CIP relationships. Developing and using the correct specification, we estimated covered interest parity relationships between the overnight U.S. Euro-dollar and Canadian interbank markets, for the 1986-1992 period. It was found that covered interest parity holds for both directions. However, the speed and pattern of adjustments with which potential arbitrage profits are eliminated are not symmetric between U.S. Euro-dollar and Canadian interbank markets. [GI51