Bubbles,Froth and Facts: Another Look at the Masters Hypothesis in Commodity Futures Markets

The Masters Hypothesis suggests that long‐only index funds were the main cause of a massive increase in commodity prices in 2007–2008 and 2011–2012. Central to the Masters Hypothesis are three basic tenets: (i) long‐only commodity index funds were directly responsible for driving futures prices higher; (ii) the deviations from fundamental value were economically very large; (iii) the impact was pervasive across commodity futures markets. There has been a great deal of empirical research on the Masters Hypothesis and commodity market bubbles. However, surprisingly few studies have found evidence that directly support the main tenets of the Masters Hypothesis. Some have attributed the lack of supporting evidence to the low‐power of time‐series tests, market efficiency issues and a lack of conditioning variables within models. In this paper, we address each of these issues using updated data and new empirical approaches. Still, price behaviour consistent with the Masters Hypothesis is surprisingly difficult to find in the data. This is an important finding given the on‐going policy debate and regulations proposed or being implemented to limit speculative positions in these markets.     

Price discovery in a private cash forward market for lumber

Cash forward contracting is a common, and often preferred, means of managing commodity price risk in many industries. Despite this, little is known about the performance of cash forward markets, in particular the role they play in price discovery. The US lumber market provides a unique case for examining this issue. The Bloch Lumber Company maintains an active cash forward market for many lumber products, and publishes benchmark forward prices on their website and disseminates these prices to data vendors. Focusing on 2×4 random lengths lumber and 7/16 oriented strand board, this research examines the lead–lag relationships between the 3-month forward prices published by Bloch Lumber, representative spot prices, and lumber futures prices at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. Results suggest that at least for 2×4 random lengths lumber, the forward prices published by Block Lumber lead both the spot price and futures price, suggesting that this private cash forward market provides some level of price discovery in the lumber markets.     

Self-concept,individual characteristics,and counterfeit consumption: Evidence from an emerging market

The study draws on a sample of over 350 consumers from 10 department stores in an emerging market where counterfeit products are available in abundance and there is a huge demand for such goods. The findings reveal that interdependent and independent self traits significantly affect individual characteristics, that is, susceptibility to normative influence, readiness to take social risk, and status acquisition (SA), which in turn influences counterfeit purchase intention. It was discovered that such individual characteristics play a mediating effect on the self-concept—purchase intention relationship and that high degrees of interdependent self traits positively affect consumers' purchase intention. The study adds to the theory of reasoned action (TRA) by incorporating SA variables into the TRA framework and discovers their significant influence on purchase intention. Some novel insights surrounding counterfeit consumption in an emerging economy context are presented and several implications are extracted to help practitioners appeal to such individual characteristics for combating counterfeit consumption.     

Energy Factors,Leasing Structure and the Market Price of Office Buildings in the U.S.

The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics - This paper presents an empirical analysis of the relation between energy factor markets, leasing structures, and the transaction prices of office...     

Brand origin and country of manufacture influences on brand equity and the moderating role of brand typicality

This research investigates how country macro and micro images associated with both brand origin (BO) and country of manufacture (COM) impact two main dimensions of brand equity-brand image and brand quality. Whereas BO images relate positively to both dimensions of brand equity, COM images exert an impact on brand quality, not on brand image. The typicality of the brand as a representative of the country of origin moderates the impact of BO on brand equity, such that the effects of BO on brand equity are stronger when the brand is more typical. The authors explore implications for theory and practice.     

The Hull and White Model of the Short Rate: An Alternative Analytical Representation

Hull and White extend Ho and Lee's no‐arbitrage model of the short interest rate to include mean reversion. This addition eliminates the problem of negative interest rates and has found wide application. To implement their model, Hull and White employ a sequential search process to identify the mean interest rate in a trinomial lattice at each date. In this article we extend Hull and White's work by developing an analytical solution for the mean interest rate at each date. This solution applies equally well to trinomial lattices, interest rate trees, and Monte Carlo simulation. We illustrate the analytical result by applying it to an example originally used by Hull and White and then for valuing an option on a bond.     

Diversification Benefits of iShares and Closed-End Country Funds

We study the performance and diversification of iShares and their rival closed‐end country funds from April 1996 to December 1999. International iShares are country‐specific series of securities that track the price and yield of a specific Morgan Stanley Capital Internation (MSCI) country index and, presumably, should provide diversification benefits. Our single‐index model demonstrates that iShares replicate the home index, showing some potential for diversification. However, our two‐factor model, which isolates the “true” diversification virtues, documents that both iShares and closed‐end country fund market prices maintain considerable exposure to the U.S. market. Furthermore, the net asset value returns of the closed‐end funds demonstrate a strong home country exposure, suggesting there is no substitute for direct foreign investment.     

FREE CASH FLOW AND PUBLIC GOVERNANCE: THE CASE OF ALASKA

In a widely cited 1986 article in the American Economic Review, Michael Jensen gave the concept of free cash flow (FCF) a new twist by redefining it as cash flow in excess of that required to fund all projects with positive net present values. Put another way, FCF represents funds available in the firm that managers may choose to hold as idle cash, return to shareholders, or invest in projects with returns below the firm's cost of capital. In redefining FCF in this way, Jensen converted FCF from a measure of economic income and value into a measure of corporate assets available for discretionary, and potentially value‐destroying, use by firm managers. And, as he argued in his important article, managers in mature businesses with substantial free cash flow have a tendency to destroy value by plowing too much capital back into those businesses or, often worse, making ill‐advised acquisitions in unrelated businesses. Several methods have been developed in financial markets and internal corporate governance systems to discourage managers from wasting FCF. Better monitoring by boards of directors, large ownership blocks, and properly aligned management compensation contracts are all parts of the solution. And the extraordinary increase in stock repurchases in recent years, invariably applauded by investors, is another illustration of the market's success in encouraging companies to address their free cash flow problems. But if the “FCF problem” of the private sector has attracted considerable attention from finance scholars, the problem is even more acute in the public sector, where FCF can be thought of as tax revenue in excess of what is required to finance well‐defined and generally accepted levels of public services. Unlike the private sector, in the public sector there are neither measures nor mechanisms by which to monitor and constrain wasteful spending by elected officials. In this article, the authors attempt to measure the costs to taxpayers of government FCF using the case of Alaska, which since 1969 has received a huge windfall of tax revenue from North Slope oil leases. After examining the state's public finances from 1968 through 1993, the authors offer $25 billion as a conservative estimate of the social losses from Alaska's waste of free cash flow during that 25‐year period.