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This article reviews the empirical evidence for equity returns, bond returns, and the equity premium in the German capital market for the period from 1870 to 1995. Taken together, the studies reviewed provide convincing evidence that over longer investment periods, average equity returns have been higher than average bond returns. These excess returns, however, have been highly volatile and negative in many years, illustrating the higher risk of equity investments. Moreover, market timing had a major positive or negative impact on overall returns. Despite the historical evidence of a substantial equity premium there is still little equity investment by German households.  相似文献   
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It is often argued that Black‐Scholes (1973 ) values overstate the subjective value of stock options granted to risk‐averse and under‐diversified executives. We construct a “representative” Swiss executive and extend the certainty‐equivalence approach presented by Hall and Murphy (2002 ) to assess the value‐cost wedge of executive stock options. Even with low coefficients of relative risk aversion, the discount can be above 50 per cent compared to the Black‐Scholes values. Regression analysis reveals that the equilibrium level of executive compensation is explained by economic determinant variables such as firm size and growth opportunities, whereas the pay‐for‐performance sensitivity remains largely unexplained. Firms with larger boards of directors pay higher wages, indicating potentially unresolved agency conflicts. We reject the hypothesis that cross‐sectional differences in the amount of executive pay vanish when risk‐adjusted values are used as the dependent variable.  相似文献   
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Do Trade Patterns and Technology Flows Affect Productivity Growth?   总被引:17,自引:0,他引:17  
This article presents a model suggesting that the pattern ofa country's intermediate goods imports affects its level ofproductivity because a country that imports such goods primarilyfrom technological leaders receives more technology than a countrythat imports primarily from follower countries. The importanceof trade patterns in determining technology flows is quantifiedusing industry-level data for machinery goods imports and productivityfrom eight member countries of the Organisation for EconomicCo-operation and Development between 1970 and 1991. Three conclusionsemerge from this work. First, the eight countries studied appearto benefit more from domestic research and development (R&D)than from R&D of the average foreign country. Second, conditionalon technology diffusion from domestic R&D, a country's importcomposition matters only if it is strongly biased toward oraway from technological leaders. Third, differences in technologyinflows related to the pattern of imports explain about 20 percentof the total variation in productivity growth. The implicationsof these findings for developing countries are discussed.  相似文献   
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In Flak/Schmid (1993) an outlier test for linear processes was introduced. The test statistic bases on a comparison of each observation with a one-step predictor. It was assumed that an upper bound for the total number of outlierss n is known, wheren denotes the sample size. The asymptotic distribution of the test statistic was derived under the assumption thats n/n → 0 ands n → ∞ asn → ∞. This note deals with the asymptotic behaviour of this quantity, ifs n/np 0 ∈ (0, 1).  相似文献   
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