Internationale Paul-Felix-Lazarsfeld-Professur an der Human- und Sozialwissenschaftlichen Fakultät der Universität Wien eingerichtet

Ohne Zusammenfassung     

Testing for multivariate volatility functions using minimum volume sets and inverse regression

We propose two new types of nonparametric tests for investigating multivariate regression functions. The tests are based on cumulative sums coupled with either minimum volume sets or inverse regression ideas; involving no multivariate nonparametric regression estimation. The methods proposed facilitate the investigation for different features such as if a multivariate regression function is (i) constant, (ii) of a bathtub shape, and (iii) in a given parametric form. The inference based on those tests may be further enhanced through associated diagnostic plots. Although the potential use of those ideas is much wider, we focus on the inference for multivariate volatility functions in this paper, i.e. we test for (i) heteroscedasticity, (ii) the so-called ‘smiling effect’, and (iii) some parametric volatility models. The asymptotic behavior of the proposed tests is investigated, and practical feasibility is shown via simulation studies. We further illustrate our methods with real financial data.     

Discrimination by shipping conferences?

Shipping conferences have for years been under heavy attacks from developing countries. It was with a view to finding out whether there was any justification for these grievances that the HWWA-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung — Hamburg (The Hamburg Institute for International Economics) prepared a wide-ranging inquiry for the Federal Ministry of Transport, the most important results of which are summarised in the following article.     

The Operating Performance of Newly Privatised Firms in Central European Transition Economies

This study examines the operating performance of privatised firms in three Central European Transition Economies between 1990 and 1998. Overall, we find no evidence of a significant improvement in operating performance for the first six years after privatisation. Contrary to the increasing empirical evidence for non‐transition economies, our privatised firms experience no improvement in profitability, capital investments, efficiency, and output, a significant drop in employment, as well as a significant increase in leverage. The most important determinants of the performance changes following privatisation were country effects, timing of the privatisation sales, industry classification, and state ownership after privatisation. Our findings are consistent with the empirical evidence that the transition process proved to be more difficult than expected and that, although necessary, privatisations do not necessarily produce equal efficiency gains in transition economies ( Megginson, 2005 ; Havrylyshyn and McGettigan, 1999 ).     

How useful is the concept of the natural real rate of interest for monetary policy?

The natural rate of interest plays a key role in Wicksell's‘cumulative process’ as well as in modern monetaryequilibrium models of the business cycle. It constitutes a usefulconcept for the theoretical analysis of the interdependenceof monetary policy and economic fluctuations. However, the usefulnessof this concept for the practice of monetary policy is limited—especiallyowing to the fact that the natural real rate of interest andits law of motion cannot be measured with satisfying precision.     

Covered interest parity in non-dollar euromarkets

Zusammenfassung Gedeckte Zinsparit?t auf Nicht-Dollar-Eurom?rkten. —- In diesem Aufsatz werden die Beziehungen zwischen Zinss?tzen und Wechselkursen auf den Eurom?rkten für andere W?hrungen als den U.S.-Dollar untersucht. Dabei zeigt sich, da\ Heteroskedastizit?t ein wichtiges Problem in den Daten ist. Tests, die mit der Heteroskedastizit?t konsistent sind, werden unter Benutzung der Korrektur nach White durchgeführt. Aus diesen Tests ergibt sich, da\ die These von der gedeckten Zinsparit?t abgelehnt werden k?nnte. Doch liegen die beobachteten Abweichungen von der gedeckten Zinsparit?t innerhalb der Grenzen, die sich aus den Transaktionskosten ergeben.

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Résumé Parité d’intérêt couverte en euro-marchés non-dollar. — Les auteurs examinent les relations entre des taux d’intérêt et des taux de change en euro-marchés non-dollar. Ils trouvent que la hétéroscédasticité est un problème significatif regardant les données. Des tests hétéroscédasticité-consistants sont conduits en utilisant la correction de White. Ces tests démontrent que la parité d’intérêt couverte (PIC) pourrait être refusée. Cependant, les auteurs trouvent que les déviations de la PIC observées sont dans des limites déterminées par les frais de transaction.

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Resumen La paridad de tipos de interés con seguro de cambio en los Euromercados alternativos al del dólar. — Se examinan las relaciones entre los tipos de interés y los tipos de cambio en los Euromercados alternativos al del dólar. La muestra presenta problemas de heteroscedasticidad. Se llevan a cabo tests consistentes con la heteroscedasticidad utilizando la corrección de White. Estos tests demuestran que la paridad de tipos de interés con seguro de cambio podría ser rechazada. Las deviaciones observadas, empero, permanecen dentro de los límites impuestos por los costos de transacción.