世界主要经济体对中国的影响观点综述

一、美国近年来,中美两国已经无可争议地确立了作为世界经济增长主要动力的地位,全球经济越来越依赖于中美经济的增长。中美两国的经济增长贡献占全球的一半,[1]中国生产商和美国消费者是世界经济的主要动力。[2]双方之间贸易和投资的潜力很大。美国经济的走向及其调整、中美间的经贸发展对中国的经济增长乃至对世界经济都影响重大。1.美国经济失衡对中国的影响美国日益增长的对外收支赤字使全球经济走上了一条难以持续发展而且是危险的道路:美国是一个借贷消费的失衡结构,中国是一个高速投资和生产的失衡结构,两者形成了今天的全球经济失衡…     

The EU’s Medium-term Financial Perspective and Turkey’s Potential Slice of the Cake

The issue of Turkey’s membership in the EU remains controversial, and the arguments for and against are not only economic. Nevertheless, the potential economic impact of Turkish membership does play an important role. How much financial support is Turkey presently receiving under existing pre-accession programmes and what changes could be expected in the case of full membership?     

重要战略机遇期的中国经济结构调整--中国人民大学中国经济发展研究报告(2003-2004)

2003年中国GDP高速增长具有恢复性增长和补偿性增长性质,属于从经济萧条到经济繁荣的经济周期形态转换过程中的经济扩张初级阶段,总体上并不存在经济过热现象。中国宏观经济政策应该保持其连续性与稳定性,避免政策指导方针从计划经济时代的“速度饥渴”转变为市场经济时代的“速度恐慌”,发生非理性经济萧条。在2003—2004年间经济周期扩张初期,中国经济应该继续采取适度扩张的需求管理政策取向,通过增加国内投资需求,保持国民经济的持续快速增长,逐步建立以增加国内投资需求为轴心的宏观经济政策体系。     

不确定性系统理论与价值工程的内在联系

本文概述了不确定性系统理论的基本概念及其内涵,讨论了价值工程中所涉及的不确定性表现,提出了用不确定性系统理论研究价值工程的必要性和可行性.     

国际资本流动、增长因素结构变迁与经济增长

在开放经济条件下,国际资本流动对资本、技术、人力资本和制度等经济增长因素的结构变迁有重要的影响,进而对经济增长有重要作用。     

基于土地流转需求的中国农地金融创新路径

农地金融是市场经济发展到一定阶段的产物,它是金融业发展的一个重要组成部分。在大多数发达国家和地区,农地金融在整个金融机构信贷总额中占有较大的比重,但是在我国,农地金融处于起步阶段,难以满足农村土地流转的正常需求。本文将在探讨农地金融现状和存在问题的基础上,提出中国农地金融创新的路径。     

中国宏观经济形势与政策:2007—2008年

2007年,中国经济保持高速增长与低通货膨胀的良好配合格局,在将核心CPI上涨率控制在2%以下的同时,实现11%以上的实际GDP增长速度。中国宏观经济管理应该在2008年继续实行稳健的财政政策,采取中性的需求管理政策取向,以在总体经济景气进入收缩阶段后延续其繁荣形态。     

The economic situation in the Republic of Belarus

Summary For some years now the Republic of Belarus has pursued an economic policy strategy that appears to exert a certain attraction on Russian policy. The Belarusan concept is based, at heart, on the attempt to raise output quickly with the help of direct grants to enterprises, financed by the central bank. This is associated with extremely rapid growth of the money supply. Central to the negative economic trend in Belarus is the substantial overvaluation of the official exchange rate. In an attempt to counter the numerous negative repercussions of this policy, the regime is being forced to adopt ever more wide-ranging administrative interventions in economic processes. The economic outcome is such, however, that recently even President Lukashenko posed the rhetorical question ‘why is our people getting poorer from month to month..., when our industry and agriculture are developing so dynamically?’³⁰ The political leadership sees the answer in the financial crisis in Russia and a poor harvest in Belarus due to unfavourable weather conditions. Its own economic policy concept is still considered to be correct, indeed is even held up as a model for Russia. However, in the course of 1998 there was an unmistakable decline in the official rates of the GDP growth and of its aggregates. Inflation soared to more than 180%. The negative economic trend is expected to deteriorate further in 1999; GDP is forecast to contract by the order of 5%, and inflation will remain in triple figures.     

Migration: the trends converge

Formerly, Australia, New Zealand, Canada, and the US have served as permanent destinations for immigrants, while Europe's migrants have moved to more northerly countries to work for a time and then returned home. From 1973-1975 Europe's recruitment of foreign workers virtually ended, although family reunion for those immigrants allowed in was encouraged. Problems resulting from this new settlement migration include low paying jobs for immigrant women, high unemployment, and inadequate education for immigrant children. Illegal migrants from Latin America and the Caribbean enter the US and Canada each year while illegal North African immigrants enter Italy, Spain, and Greece. North America, Australia, and Europe have all received political refugees from Asia and Latin America. Increasingly, these foreigners compete in the labor market rather than simply fill jobs the native workers do not want. All the receiving countries have similar policy priorities: 1) more effective ways for controlling and monitoring inflows and checking illegal immigration; 2) encouraging normal living patterns and accepting refugees; and 3) integrating permanent migrants into the host country. Europe's public immigration encouragement prior to the first oil shock, has left some countries with a labor force that is reluctant to return home. It is unlikely that Europe will welcome foreign labor again in this decade, since unemployment among young people and women is high and family reunion programs may still bring in many immigrants. Less immigration pattern change will probably occur in North America, Australia, and New Zealand since these countries' populations are still growing and wages are more flexible. Immigration, regulated by policy, and emigration, determined by market forces, now are working in the same direction and will likely reduce future migration flows.