Lifecycle‐based donor performance analysis

With charities of all sizes now having the ability to collect and store very large quantities of data about their donors on in‐house database systems, detailed donor performance analyses have an increasingly essential role to play in the effective planning and management of fundraising. If, however, such activities are to support fully the work of fundraisers then it is important that they are undertaken from the perspective of the fundraiser rather than of the specialist data analyst. This paper introduces an approach to donor performance analysis that is founded on what is termed a ‘donor lifecycle model’. The aim of this is to provide a formal analysis methodology that provides end results that can be more easily interpreted by nonspecialists and so more effectively used in support of the efficient planning of fundraising programmes. Copyright © 2000 Henry Stewart Publications     

Real option valuation of public sector R&D investments with a down-and-out barrier option

This paper presents a real options approach for valuing public-sector research and development projects, using a down-and-out barrier option. Specifically, it considers the potential savings to the tax payer for investing in technology to be purchased by a national government. The valuation is performed with stretched trinomial lattices. Government-driven demand for this technology is equated with the underlying asset, and valuation measured in terms of potential government savings. Two variables, volatility of demand for the technology and unit cost, are treated as uncertain. A Monte Carlo simulation is performed to understand the effects of these variables on the valuation. Other variables are estimated, and a parametric analysis is performed to understand the effects of these variables. To illustrate how this approach could be used, the development of a new sensor, to be used in large networks that track greenhouse gas fluxes, is considered as an example.     

Collegiality under pressure: the effects of family demands and flexible work arrangements in the Netherlands

Collegial relationships at work have become more important now that organizations increasingly use team-based work processes. Collegiality is also facing new challenges, however: more employees are meeting heavy demands beyond the workplace and making more frequent use of flexible work arrangements. This study seeks to explain the effect of employees’ family demands on collegiality and evaluates whether the use of flexible work arrangements improves or impedes collegial behaviour. Moreover, we aim to investigate collegial behaviour as an exchange process between co-workers, and therefore also take family demands and the use of flexible work arrangements by co-workers into account as predictors of employee collegiality. Based on a sample of 1114 employees from 30 organizations, the results show that when used by the employee and co-workers, flexitime decreases collegiality. Collegiality is decreased when the employee has young children, but increased when co-workers have older children. The implications of these findings for HR practices are discussed.     

Forecasting the US term structure of interest rates using a macroeconomic smooth dynamic factor model

We extend the class of dynamic factor yield curve models in order to include macroeconomic factors. Our work benefits from recent developments in the dynamic factor literature related to the extraction of the common factors from a large panel of macroeconomic series and the estimation of the parameters in the model. We include these factors in a dynamic factor model for the yield curve, in which we model the salient structure of the yield curve by imposing smoothness restrictions on the yield factor loadings via cubic spline functions. We carry out a likelihood-based analysis in which we jointly consider a factor model for the yield curve, a factor model for the macroeconomic series, and their dynamic interactions with the latent dynamic factors. We illustrate the methodology by forecasting the U.S. term structure of interest rates. For this empirical study, we use a monthly time series panel of unsmoothed Fama–Bliss zero yields for treasuries of different maturities between 1970 and 2009, which we combine with a macro panel of 110 series over the same sample period. We show that the relationship between the macroeconomic factors and the yield curve data has an intuitive interpretation, and that there is interdependence between the yield and macroeconomic factors. Finally, we perform an extensive out-of-sample forecasting study. Our main conclusion is that macroeconomic variables can lead to more accurate yield curve forecasts.     

Measuring the quality of managerial learning on the job

This article describes the development of an instrument to measure the quality of managerial learning on the job. The instrument can be used to analyse the quality of the individual learning process on the job. The literature shows that two factors determine the quality of the learning process: the learning potential of the job context and the way in which the manager approaches their work. So the instrument has two components. The first component measures the four types of work experience that offer potential opportunities for individual learning. These are transitions, task-related characteristics, obstacles and support. The second component, the so-called learning behaviour, analyses the way the individual approaches the potential learning opportunities present in the job. This can also be divided into four categories: emergent learning, planned learning, instruction-oriented learning and meaning-oriented learning. Based on these two components, an instrument has been developed to measure the quality of learning on the job. This has been shown to be valid and reliable in a sample of European managers.