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11.
We explore the effects of uncertainty on a firm that can respond by modifying its investment or production schedule (or both simultaneously) to variations in output price. Investment may increase capacity and/or reduce costs. We consider a firm with finite resources.Our model uses option theory instead of the more traditional net present value framework. One of the early papers using this approach is Brennan and Schwartz (1985) in which an investment project to extract a finite natural resource is valued. In that paper, the value of the firm is a function of two state variables, the finite resource to be extracted (output to be produced in the future) and the commodity spot price. In order to maximize firm value, the manager can respond by modifying one control variable, the production level. In our model we handle instead three state variables (spot price, resources, accumulated investment) and two control variables (production rate and investment rate), and solve numerically.We obtain both the value and the optimal policy of a firm that has investment projects that increase capacity and/or reduce costs and illustrate optimal policies as resources and available investments decrease over the life of the firm. Firms may start by only investing, then invest and produce, to end only producing.We thank Scott Wo, the referee and the editor for their comments and suggestions. Cortázar and Lowener acknowledge the financial support from FONDECYT and FONDER. 相似文献
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Flexible exchange rates as shock absorbers 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
In this paper we analyze empirically the effect of terms of trade shocks on economic performance under alternative exchange rate regimes. We are particularly interested in investigating whether terms of trade disturbances have a smaller effect on growth in countries with a flexible exchange rate arrangement. We also analyze whether negative and positive terms of trade shocks have asymmetric effects on growth, and whether the magnitude of these asymmetries depends on the exchange rate regime. We find evidence suggesting that terms of trade shocks get amplified in countries that have more rigid exchange rate regimes. We also find evidence of an asymmetric response to terms of trade shocks: the output response is larger for negative than for positive shocks. Finally, we find evidence supporting the view that, after controlling for other factors, countries with more flexible exchange rate regimes grow faster than countries with fixed exchange rates. 相似文献
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The paper examines the equity market price interaction between Australia and the European Union – represented by the UK, Germany and France – based on the Toda–Yamamoto causality test, which is bootstrapped with leveraged adjustments. A new information criterion is used to choose the optimal lag order. Weekly MSCI data covering the period 1988 to 2001 is used, divided into two subperiods to allow for a structural break arising from the ERM crisis of 1992. Results show that, during the period before the ERM crisis, no significant causal links exist between Australia and any of three EU countries. During the period after the ERM crisis, Australia also had no causal links with Germany and France but it had with the UK, with causality running from the UK to Australia but not vice-versa. Thus, Australian investors may find the German and French, but not the UK, equity markets, attractive venues for their international diversification. German and French, but not British, investors may also obtain the same benefit from the Australian equity market. 相似文献
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A quadratic version of the first-difference Okun’s Law model was estimated for Spain (1995.Q1-2012.Q2). An accelerationist version of Okun’s Law was obtained, which allowed us to calculate variable Okun coefficients as well as critical points in the relationship between construction sector growth and the variation in overall unemployment. The optimal economic growth rate was determined to be 7.38 %. By applying principal components, it is demonstrated that this sector led the economic process after 1995. 相似文献
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We combine contingent behaviour with travel cost data to estimate the change in the recreational use value of a National Forest due to quality and price changes. Instead of the usual improvement scenario, a hypothetical deterioration in the conditions of the forest due to a fire is considered. A dataset containing five observations for each respondent enabled the estimation of three models for which the number of scenarios differed. The results show that visitors are sensitive to price and quality changes and that in the forest fire scenario the intended number of trips would be reduced and that respondents would experience a welfare loss. Signs of inconsistency between preferences expressed by revealed and intended behaviour were found. This research also provides some indications that strategic bias affects answers to price changes. 相似文献
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Determinants of GNMA Mortgage Prices 总被引:5,自引:0,他引:5
This paper contrasts three different arbitrage-based models for the pricing of GNMA securities, and analyzes the effect of different assumptions about the call policy pursued by the issuers of the underlying mortgages. Both the nature of the interest-rate uncertainty captured by the model and the assumed call policy have a major effect on the yield differentials predicted between GNMA securities and Treasury Bonds. 相似文献
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Ronaldo Pilati Jairo Eduardo Borges‐Andrade 《International Journal of Training and Development》2008,12(4):226-237
Research in training, development and education (TD&E) in organizations has produced important results in the last two decades. Evaluation of TD&E has been a special focus of this research, which has resulted in the production of relevant predictive models. The present study has the aim of testing a model of effectiveness of training on work, with the trainee's motivation and satisfaction with training as the antecedent variables and the type of training as a moderator variable. Data collection with 600 participants in a Brazilian bank was conducted with measurement scales before training, at its end and three months later. The data were analyzed through structural equation modeling. The results indicate that the motivation of the trainee and satisfaction with training are predictors of its effectiveness on work and that the type of training affects this predictive relationship. The key feature of the type of training was the cognitive complexity of expected competencies. 相似文献
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