Cointegration networks in stock markets

We use a novel approach based on a combination of network and cointegration analysis to examine linkages between stock markets across market cycles. Our results show that long-run linkages are likely to be global rather than regional and that market turbulence increases linkages. However, we find no widespread common stochastic trends between markets and neither are we able to draw a conclusion that major financial markets display influences network linkages.     

Dynamics of volatility transmission between the U.S. and the Chinese agricultural futures markets

The U.S. and China are two of the biggest players in the world agricultural market. The literature documents that volatility in the U.S. agricultural futures market spills over significantly to that of China. This article provides further insights into the spillovers from China to the U.S. as well as the time horizon and dynamics of the bidirectional spillovers through the application of a multivariate extension of the heterogeneous autoregressive model, in relation to four commodities – soybean, wheat, corn and sugar. The results confirm the existence of significant spillovers from the U.S. to China for four commodities, which are primarily generated by the shorter-term volatility components in the U.S., and provide evidence for the increasing pricing power of the Chinese market. The findings are robust against various specifications and have important investment and policy implications.     

Myopic Loss Aversion in Brazilian Open Retirement Funds

ABSTRACT

This paper analyzes the relationship between withdrawals from Brazilian open retirement funds, portfolio composition (fixed income or equity) and frequency of statement sending (monthly, quarterly, semiannually or annually). Our results indicate that equity retirement plans present a lower withdrawal index when compared to that of fixed income plans. Furthermore, the higher the statement sending frequency, the lower the withdrawals from open retirement plans. However, withdrawals from equity retirement plans tend to increase when statements are sent to investors more frequently. These phenomena can be explained by behaviorist theories, such as the concept of myopic loss aversion. In a context where loss aversion is present, the more frequently the investor evaluates his or her portfolio, or the shorter the investment horizon, the less attractive he or she will find investment in assets with a high rate of return and risk, such as equities. This behavior occurs not only regarding short-term investments, but also traditional long-term assets such as equity retirement plans.

RESUMEN. Este estudio analiza la relación existente entre las retiradas de los fondos abiertos de jubilación brasileños, la composición de la cartera (ingreso fijo o patrimonio), y la frecuencia del envío de estados financieros (mensual, trimestral, semestral o anualmente). Nuestros resultados indican que los planes de jubilación patrimonial tienen un índice de retirada menor, en comparación con los planes de ingreso fijo. Además, cuanto mayor la frecuencia de los estados financieros, menor es la retirada de los planes abiertos de jubilación. Sin embargo, las retiradas de los planes de jubilación patrimoniales tienden a aumentar cuando los estados se envían a los inversores con más frecuencia. Este fenómeno puede explicarse con las teorías comportamentales, tales como el concepto de la aversión miope a la pérdida. En un contexto donde la aversión a la pérdida es una realidad, cuanto mayor la frecuencia con que el inversor pueda evaluar su carera, o menor el horizonte de inversión, menos atractivas considerará él las inversiones en activos con un alto retorno y riesgo, tal como las acciones. Este comportamiento ocurre no sólo en las inversiones a corto plazo, sino también en los activos a largo plazo, como los planes de jubilación patrimoniales.

RESUMO. Este artigo analisa a relação entre as retiradas dos fundos abertos de aposentadoria brasileiros, a composição da carteira (renda fixa ou ações) e a freqüência da remessa de extratos (mensal, trimestral ou semestral). Nossos resultados indicam que os planos de aposentadoria que aplicam em ações apresentam um índice de retirada menor em comparação com os planos de renda fixa. Além disso, quanto maior a freqüência de remessa de extratos, menores as retiradas dos planos abertos de aposentadoria. Entretanto, as retiradas dos planos de aposentadoria que aplicam em ações tendem a aumentar quando o extrato é enviado aos investidores commais freqüência. Esses fenômenos podem ser explicados por teorias behavioristas, como o conceito de aversão míope à perda. Num contexto onde a aversão à perda esteja presente, quanto maior a freqüência com que o investidor avalia a sua carteira, ou quanto menor o horizonte do investimento, menos atraente ele achará o investimento em ativos com alto retorno e risco, como ações. Esse comportamento ocorre não apenas em investimentos a curto prazo, mas também nos ativos tradicionais de longo prazo como os planos de aposentadoria com aplicação em ações.     

Strategic currency hedging and global portfolio investments upside down

The literature on the convenience of currency hedging of international portfolio investments has not reached a final verdict. There are arguments for (Perold and Schulman [Perold, A.F. and Schulman, E.C. (1988). The free lunch in currency hedging: implications for investment policy and performance standards, Financial Analysts Journal, May/June Vol. 44, No. 3: 45-52]) and against (Froot [Froot, K. (1993). Currency hedging over long horizons. NBER Working Paper 4355.] and Campbell et al. [Campbell, J.Y., Viceira, L.M. and White, J.S. (2003). Foreign currency for long-term investors. The Economic Journal, Volume 113, Number 486, (March), pp. C1-C25(1)]). This paper analyzes the perspective of global investors based in emerging markets, for which hedging should imply increasing expected returns. The question thus is whether currency hedging is a “free lunch” in this case. No free lunch exists, as it turns out. Hard currencies act as natural hedges against global (and local) portfolio losses, since they tend to appreciate with respect to emerging market currencies when the world portfolio return is negative. Therefore, in this case currency hedging increases volatility—although also increasing expected returns. This result is likely to hold generally for relatively open economies with flexible exchange rate regimes.     

Benchmark priors for Bayesian model averaging

In contrast to a posterior analysis given a particular sampling model, posterior model probabilities in the context of model uncertainty are typically rather sensitive to the specification of the prior. In particular, ‘diffuse’ priors on model-specific parameters can lead to quite unexpected consequences. Here we focus on the practically relevant situation where we need to entertain a (large) number of sampling models and we have (or wish to use) little or no subjective prior information. We aim at providing an ‘automatic’ or ‘benchmark’ prior structure that can be used in such cases. We focus on the normal linear regression model with uncertainty in the choice of regressors. We propose a partly non-informative prior structure related to a natural conjugate g-prior specification, where the amount of subjective information requested from the user is limited to the choice of a single scalar hyperparameter g_0j. The consequences of different choices for g_0j are examined. We investigate theoretical properties, such as consistency of the implied Bayesian procedure. Links with classical information criteria are provided. More importantly, we examine the finite sample implications of several choices of g_0j in a simulation study. The use of the MC³ algorithm of Madigan and York (Int. Stat. Rev. 63 (1995) 215), combined with efficient coding in Fortran, makes it feasible to conduct large simulations. In addition to posterior criteria, we shall also compare the predictive performance of different priors. A classic example concerning the economics of crime will also be provided and contrasted with results in the literature. The main findings of the paper will lead us to propose a ‘benchmark’ prior specification in a linear regression context with model uncertainty.     

Do Sovereign Defaults Hurt Exporters?

This paper uses a difference-in-difference methodology similar to the one originally proposed by Rajan and Zingales to test whether sovereign defaults hurt the more export-oriented industries disproportionately, and it finds strong support for this hypothesis. However, contrary to the findings of previous studies, our estimates suggest that the effect of defaults is short-lived.     

An ethical argument for host country workforce training and development in the expatriate management assignment

This paper seeks to establish the ethical foundation of MNCs' responsibility for providing host country workforce (HCW) preparation and training attendant to the new expatriate management assignment. It argues that such moral responsibility arises from a set of correlative duties which MNCs acquire as business institutions. They include duties involving the expatriate manager, the HCW, and the host nation to (1) assist all employees, including the expatriate manager, in the successful execution of their assignments; (2) avoid the semblance of discriminatory treatment; (3) encourage full status integration into a global economy; (4) foster personal enlightenment and self-enrichment; (5) help individuals develop useful, marketable skills; (6) contribute to the development of a greater and more functional national labor skill base; and (7) encourage a long-term focus on creating enduring value for a maximum number of stakeholders, rather than upon short-term and shortsighted profit for only a few. Some important cautions and considerations related to HCW training implementation are then discussed.Charles M. Vance, associate professor of management at Loyola Marymount University in Los Angeles, has both a domestic and international focus on human resource management and learning system design to enhance organizational performance. He has several publications, and his new book,Mastering Management Education (Sage Publications), is to be published in 1993.Eduardo S. Paderon is the Associate Dean of the Hagan School of Business of Iona College in New Rochelle, New York. He teaches graduate courses on Business Policy and Business and Society. His writings and other scholarly activities, including presentations at national and international conferences, focus on business ethics and cross-cultural value studies.