Transport metabolism, social diversity and equity: The case of São Paulo, Brazil

The movement of people in space implies the consumption of resources such as time, space, money and energy, as well as the production of negative externalities such as accidents, pollution and congestion. Some of these effects have been analyzed on an aggregate level by comparing regions in the world, a set of selected cities and different geographical areas in a particular city. The analysis of data on a more disaggregate level that considers the differences in the cause and continuance of negative transport externalities among social classes and groups living in a particular city in the developing world is rare.This paper uses the São Paulo Metropolitan Region (SPMR) 1997 origin–destination (OD) survey to investigate such phenomenon by taking advantage of the fact that data are divided according to six levels of household income. Results refer to mobility patterns in workable days.The main conclusions are that although people at the lowest income level spend a high share of their income on transport, they have a very low overall mobility and contribute almost nothing to transport externalities. At the other extreme, the two highest income groups that use cars intensively invest much more time, space and money to travel around and so contribute to transport externalities 8.4–15.2 times more than the lowest income group. Such large differences challenge current transport policies in developing countries and call both for a reassessment of assumptions and principles as well as for opposition to the propagation of myths that have sustained such inequitable policies.     

Mortgage Prepayment and Default Decisions: A Poisson Regression Approach

This paper uses an extensive and geographically dispersed sample of single-family fixed rate mortgages to assess the prepayment and default behavior of individual homeowners. We make use of Poisson regression to efficiently estimate the parameters of a proportional hazards model for prepayment and default decisions. Poisson regression for grouped survival data has several advantages over partial likelihood methods. First, when dealing with time-dependent covar-iates, it is considerably more efficient in terms of computations. Second, it is possible to estimate full-hazard models which include, for example, functions of time as well as multiple time scales (i.e., age of the loan and calendar time), in a much more straightforward manner than partial likelihood methods for un-grouped data. Third, Poisson regression can be used to estimate non-proportional hazards models such as additive excess risk specifications. Taken together, our data and estimation methodology allow us to obtain a better understanding of the economic factors underlying prepayment and default decisions.     

Investment–cash flow sensitivity and investor protection

We examine the role of country-level legal investor protection (i.e., shareholder and creditor protection) on firm investment–cash flow sensitivity (ICFS). Using underexplored research data on investor protection across 21 countries and working with a conservative empirical design, we extend prior literature on the relation between investor protection and ICFS and provide new evidence on how these country-level attributes interact to explain a firm's ICFS. We find that either the strong legal protection of minority shareholders or the strong legal protection of creditors reduces the sensitivity of investment to internal cash flow. However, in countries with strong levels of both minority shareholder and creditor protection, ICFS increases. Our results remain robust after controlling for several alternative explanations. The results support the argument that overregulation arises when policymakers increase investor protection at levels that lead firms to avoid external sources of finance, hampering firm investment. Our findings suggest that countries face a regulatory trade-off such that increasing investor protection (either shareholder or creditors protection) enhances financial markets efficiency, but excessive regulation can indeed lead to financial markets inefficiencies.     

latin lessons

How can the perennial problem of inflation in Latin America be cured? Eduardo Belgrano, a Mexican economist, argues that Latin American governments have always found it difficult to match spending with revenue and have found it easy to resort to the inflation tax. Conventional currency reforms have regularly failed to work and the solution is to adapt Hayek's proposal for competition in currencies.     

Pets at ecotourism destinations: cute mascot or trojan horse?

Alien species are threatening native fauna worldwide and cats and dogs have well-documented deleterious impacts on wildlife. Ecotourism operators often live and raise their pets in natural reserves. Here we discuss how pets add to the list of potential negative impacts of ecotourism and provide recommendations to control or attenuate such impacts.     

加州大学伯克利分校哈斯商学院——如何向老板要求涨薪

等老板心情好时再提出涨薪要求,是大家通常采用的做法。但是,万一老板对你的小算盘心知肚明呢？ 加州大学伯克利分校哈斯商学院两名教授针对这个问题展开了研究。他们发现,一个人偶然的情绪可能影响到别人的决定。     

A pairs trading strategy based on linear state space models and the Kalman filter

Among many strategies for financial trading, pairs trading has played an important role in practical and academic frameworks. Loosely speaking, it involves a statistical arbitrage tool for identifying and exploiting the inefficiencies of two long-term, related financial assets. When a significant deviation from this equilibrium is observed, a profit might result. In this paper, we propose a pairs trading strategy entirely based on linear state space models designed for modelling the spread formed with a pair of assets. Once an adequate state space model for the spread is estimated, we use the Kalman filter to calculate conditional probabilities that the spread will return to its long-term mean. The strategy is activated upon large values of these conditional probabilities: the spread is bought or sold accordingly. Two applications with real data from the US and Brazilian markets are offered, and even though they probably rely on limited evidence, they already indicate that a very basic portfolio consisting of a sole spread outperforms some of the main market benchmarks.     

Corn and Mexican Agriculture: What Went Wrong?

The debt crisis of the 1980s caused the development strategy pursued by the Mexican government to be subject to a radical adjustment process that triggered deep repercussions for the agricultural sector and its farmers, particularly in the corn sector. In combination with the aggressive agricultural policies sustained by the U.S. government, the new approach meant that Mexican agriculture operated within an economic environment characterized by significant asymmetries and distortions, some internal and some imposed by major trading partners. This article summarizes and documents the most salient results of these policy events as well as their implications for the corn sector, and discusses some of the challenges to repair the agricultural sector in Mexico.     

Project Manager Profile Characterization in the Construction Sector in Bogotá, Colombia

This study aims to describe and evaluate the characteristics (educational background, training, skills, and experience) that make up the project manager profile in the construction sector in Bogotá, Colombia. This study is based on a project management literature review, expert interviews and surveys with a group of project managers in the construction sector, and comparisons between them. This evaluation aims to contribute to the development of a clearer de?nition of the project manager profile in the Colombian context. The identified project manager profile satisfies the essential desired characteristics with some particular weaknesses related to education and training in project management.