Cooperation among national drug manufacturers: Asociación Latinoamericana de Industrias Farmacéuticas (ALIFAR)

This article examines the background to the establishment of the Latin American Association of Pharmaceutical Industries (ALIFAR) and describes its activities and achievements. The national firms in Latin America lacked an institutionalized organization to present their collective viewpoints to governments and international organizations when they held important deliberations affecting the development of the pharmaceutical industry. Transnational corporations, on the other hand, were supported very effectively by a global organization. The creation of ALIFAR was, therefore, a logical and a strategical step in the fight for survival of the national firms in Latin America. Since its establishment in November 1980, ALIFAR has shown significant results and encouraging promise, which are described in the article and which may serve as useful guidelines for action in other developing countries.     

A down-and-out exchange option model with jumps to evaluate firms' default probabilities in Brazil

We develop a tractable structural model to estimate a firm's default probability by modeling its asset and debt behavior. The model incorporates jump factors. For a set of Brazilian large corporations, we compare the structural model results to the default probabilities predicted by a survival analysis applied to the Central Bank debt information database. Our model outperforms other structural models. In a last step, we use a firm's sector failure probabilities to calibrate the model. This process is executed by adjusting the model jump volatility and it helps to explain the differences between debt and equity market failure probabilities.     

Regional variation in productivity: a study of the Danish economy

We develop a model of labor productivity as a combination of capital-labour ratio, vintage of capital stock, regional externalities, and total factor productivity (TFP). The skewness of TFP distribution is related to different growth theories. While negative skewness is consistent with the neo-Schumpeterian idea of catching up with leaders, zero skewness supports the neoclassical view that deviations from the frontier reflect only idiosyncratic productivity shocks. We argue that positive skewness is consistent with an economy where exogenous technology is combined with non-transferable knowledge accumulated in specific sectors and regions. This argument provides the framework for an empirical model based on stochastic frontier analysis. The model is used to analyse regional and sectoral inequalities in Denmark.

A pairs trading strategy based on linear state space models and the Kalman filter

Among many strategies for financial trading, pairs trading has played an important role in practical and academic frameworks. Loosely speaking, it involves a statistical arbitrage tool for identifying and exploiting the inefficiencies of two long-term, related financial assets. When a significant deviation from this equilibrium is observed, a profit might result. In this paper, we propose a pairs trading strategy entirely based on linear state space models designed for modelling the spread formed with a pair of assets. Once an adequate state space model for the spread is estimated, we use the Kalman filter to calculate conditional probabilities that the spread will return to its long-term mean. The strategy is activated upon large values of these conditional probabilities: the spread is bought or sold accordingly. Two applications with real data from the US and Brazilian markets are offered, and even though they probably rely on limited evidence, they already indicate that a very basic portfolio consisting of a sole spread outperforms some of the main market benchmarks.     

加州大学伯克利分校哈斯商学院——如何向老板要求涨薪

等老板心情好时再提出涨薪要求,是大家通常采用的做法。但是,万一老板对你的小算盘心知肚明呢？ 加州大学伯克利分校哈斯商学院两名教授针对这个问题展开了研究。他们发现,一个人偶然的情绪可能影响到别人的决定。