系统动力学视角下城市群绿色低碳路径研究

碳达峰和碳中和的提出对城市群发展提出新的要求,城市群高速发展与环境问题间的矛盾日益加剧,绿色低碳发展路径亟待研究.以京津冀城市群为研究对象,在梳理城市群发展影响因素的基础上,分析城市群循环系统构成中要素间的关联关系,并通过量化模型,搭建基于系统动力学的城市群绿色低碳发展系统;重点从经济、能源、环境和城市聚合4个角度构建仿真系统,建立要素间量化函数,设定基本场景,以2010—2019年数据为基础,对系统进行仿真运行.算例结果表明,构建的仿真系统通过了检验,拟合程度较好;通过设计不同场景,验证相关参数变化时对系统运行的影响程度,发现综合场景对未来系统运行效益最佳,兼顾了经济发展与碳减排问题,能够促进城市向群绿色低碳发展.     

欧洲央行流动性管理措施创新实践与效应

欧洲央行拥有较为完善的常规流动性供给机制,面对危机状态下市场融资功能的萎缩,欧央行通过创新和运用多种非常规流动性供给工具,为金融机构和市场提供必要的流动性支持。文章系统梳理了危机前后欧央行常规和非常规流动性管理工具的操作方式和功能,评估了非常规货币工具在市场流动性、利率和经济方面的实施效果,并探讨了其对于完善我国流动性管理的几点启示。     

Crop Insurance as a Strategy for Adapting to Climate Change

Financial insurance for extreme events can play an important role in hedging against the implications of climate change. This paper combines a comprehensive estimation strategy and a unique panel dataset to study the role of financial insurance in farmers' welfare under uncertainty. Data are drawn from a large Italian farm panel dataset. We find that (i) demand for insurance products is likely to increase in response to climatic conditions, and (ii) that the use of insurance reduces the extent of risk exposure. We also find that farms growing more crops are less likely to adopt the insurance scheme. This confirms what is found in the theoretical literature. Crop diversification can be a substitute for financial insurance in hedging against the impact of risk exposure on welfare.     

一种京城物流配送“最后一公里”解决方案

物流配送“最后一公里”是个复杂系统,具有不确定性,已经成为影响京城物流行业发展的瓶颈.“最后一公里”配送是物流活动得以顺畅进行的根本保证,是京城物流发展的重要环节之一.如今在物流配送末端相对滞后的情况下,物流成本不断增加,而“最后一公里”又是导致物流成本上升的主要因素,一方面,在短时间内物流的末端配送难以摆脱对成本的控制,另一方面,高额的人力资源制约着物流行业利润上升空间.本文运用复杂系统理论,并结合物联网信息技术对物流配送“最后一公里”中存在的问题提出对策及实施方案,期望对京城物流行业的发展有所裨益.     

应用DNA彗星电泳法检测辐照食品

通过彗星电泳法检测样品单细胞DNA损伤从而鉴别辐照食品。[方法]选取12种食品基质,经1KGy、3KGy、5KGy、7KGy、10KGy剂量辐照后,进行彗星电泳检测,并对检测时效性进行研究。[结果]除熟制鸡肉外,其他样品均可通过彗星电泳法检测到辐照状况,检测灵敏度达lKGy辐照剂量;辐照产生的DNA损伤具有明显的剂量-效应关系,以TL、TDNA％指标分析存在平台期,以TM、OTM指标分析则不存在平台期：辐照后6h-5d均可检测到明显的彗星图像。[结论]彗星电泳法适用于除熟制食品外的含DNA食品的辐照检测,方法稳定性好,检测灵敏度高。     

Deep habits and the cyclical behaviour of equilibrium unemployment and vacancies

We extend the standard textbook search and matching model by introducing deep habits in consumption. This assumption generates amplification in the response of labour market variables to technology shocks by producing endogenous countercyclical mark-ups. The cyclical fluctuations of vacancies and unemployment in our model can replicate those observed in the US data, with labour market tightness being 20 times more volatile than consumption. Vacancies display a hump-shaped response to technology shocks and the numerical simulations generate an artificial Beveridge curve that is in line with the data. Our model preserves the assumption of fully flexible wages for new hires and the calibration is consistent with the estimated elasticity of unemployment to unemployment benefits. Finally, we show that in contrast to models with exogenous mark-up shocks, the deep habits model does not require an implausible variation in the elasticity of demand to match the volatility of labour market variables, and the cyclical properties of the mark-up are in line with empirical evidence.     

Organisational justice and customer citizenship behaviour of retail industries

Previous research has concerned itself more with customers' purchasing behaviours but not non-purchasing behaviour. Hence, the purpose of this study is to investigate the organisational justice (OJ) and customer citizenship behaviour (CCB), including the mediating role of organisational trust. A survey was conducted on a sample of 447 fast-food restaurant customers in Taiwan in order to test the proposed model. The findings showed that the customers who have higher perceptions of justice have higher levels of trust and CCB. Positive relationship was found between trust and CCB. In addition, trust has a partially significant mediating effect between OJ and CCB. The findings are discussed in terms of their theoretical and practical implications, and also provide some suggestions for managerial practice and further research.     

论江西红色文化产业发展之路

红色文化产业是集政治、经济和文化于一体的产业,除具一般文化产业属性外,更具有传播先进理念、教育人、鼓舞人的功能,对江西的振兴起着重要作用。文章从转变观念、把握市场、不断创新、整合优势和区域互动等方面探讨了江西红色文化产业发展之路。     

Strategic Interactions and Contagion Effects under Monetary Unions

This paper applies game theory and a cost‐benefit analysis to study voluntary exits and contagion effects in countries joined to a monetary union. The paper looks at two non‐core or periphery countries of a large union and examines the role of structural asymmetries and strategic interactions as determinants of equilibrium outcomes, following both country‐specific and common shocks. The paper finds that under almost symmetry between countries, country‐specific shocks are never associated with multiple equilibria and, if large enough, can spread to other countries leading to contagion. By contrast, common shocks are seen to sustain multiple equilibria if almost‐symmetric countries are considered and to have implications similar to those found in the country‐specific case if large structural asymmetries are admitted.