Zur verteilungsfreien Ableitung der Streuung von Regressionskoeffizienten ohne Voraussetzung der Nullhypothese

Ohne Zusammenfassung     

Evaluating Life Expectancy Evaluations

The quality of life expectancy estimates is one key consideration for an investor in life settlements. The predominant metric for assessing this quality is the so-called A-to-E ratio, which relies on a comparison of the actual to the predicted number of deaths. In this article, we explain key issues with this metric: In the short run, it is subject to estimation uncertainty for small and moderately sized portfolios; and, more critically, in the long run, it converges to 100% even if the underwriting is systematically biased. As an alternative, we propose and discuss a set of new metrics based on the difference in (temporary) life expectancies. We examine the underwriting quality of a leading U.S. life expectancy provider based on this new methodology.     

How Aggressive Tax Planning Facilitates the Diversion of Corporate Resources: Evidence from Path Analysis

In measuring tunneling with intercorporate loans disclosed by Chinese listed companies, we analyze the underlying channels through which aggressive tax planning facilitates the diversion of corporate resources by firm insiders. Using path analysis, we document that the path from tax aggressiveness to related loans is mediated by both the additional cash flows from tax savings and the increased financial opacity from tax planning, and that additional cash flows plays a much more important role than opacity in helping controlling shareholders to divert corporate resources under the guise of tax aggressiveness. Beyond the two mediated paths, we also detect a residual, direct path from tax aggressiveness to related loans. After an exogenous shock from the government crackdown on diversionary related loans, we find the direct path is fully mediated by the two indirect paths, suggesting that tunneling via related loans only occurs at firms where insiders can mask tunneling under the cover of opacity or can justify related loans on grounds of abnormal cash flows from tax savings. Our evidence supports the notion that greater outside scrutiny increases the hurdle for, but does not entirely eradicate, diversion facilitated by tax aggressiveness. Collectively, our research lends some support to recent theory on the importance of taxes to corporate governance by demonstrating how the agency costs of tax planning allow certain shareholders to benefit from firm activities at the expense of others.     

Employee overqualification and manager job insecurity: Implications for employee career outcomes

In this study, we propose that manager job insecurity will moderate the nature of the relationship between perceived overqualification and employee career-related outcomes (career satisfaction, promotability ratings, and voluntary turnover). We tested our hypotheses using a sample of 124 employees and 54 managers working in a large holding company in Ankara, Turkey, collected across five time periods. The results suggested that average perceived overqualification was more strongly, and negatively, related to career satisfaction of employees when managers reported higher job insecurity. Furthermore, employee perceived overqualification was positively related to voluntary turnover when manager job insecurity was high. No direct or moderated effects were found for promotability ratings. Implications for overqualification and job insecurity literatures were discussed.     

Modelling Impacts of Wildlife Tourism on Animal Communities: A Case Study from Royal Chitwan National Park,Nepal

This paper describes the development of a generic model which allows for the analysis of wildlife-tourism interaction impacts in the natural environment. The development of a computer system to facilitate the collection of data and the use of this model is described, using data collected on large mammals in Royal Chitwan National Park, Nepal. The computer system stores parameters describing wildlife tours and animal characteristics for an area and plots regions of disturbance and non-disturbance for the animal in that area. Predictions can then be made regarding the potential impacts of tourism on the animal species for the area. Applications for this model and computer system include the management of high tourism areas at sustainable levels so that tourist enjoyment is maintained and animal disturbance is minimised.     

Women,Children and Patience: Experimental Evidence from Indian Villages

Researchers have observed that women in developing countries often make more development friendly choices than men. We implemented experimental tasks among a large and diverse sample of married individuals in rural India and found women to make on average more patient and more risk‐averse choices than men. We find important heterogeneity in gender differences in patience: there is no difference for spouses with no children but patience levels diverge if there are small children in a family. The findings imply that conflicting spousal preferences are most likely in poor families with children.     

Preventive product safety – monitoring accidental injuries related to consumer products in the European Union

Objectives. To measure GPs' and paediatricians' expectations, attitudes, priorities and demands in the area of promoting safety and preventing accidents in the home involving children under 15 years of age.

Methods. A phone survey of a random sample of GPs and paediatricians in the French-speaking community of Belgium (Wallonia and Brussels) conducted in the course of September and October 2000.

Results. Close to two-thirds of the physicians surveyed stated that they had been contacted at least once in the 2 weeks preceding the survey to handle an injury. Of the physicians, 80% mention accident prevention after a childhood injury, but only 46% mention it during a routine consultation (whatever the reason of the latter may be). The main obstacles to mentioning prevention during routine consultation put forward by the interviewees are: 1) reasons for consultations that do not permit such an approach (79%); 2) the fact that injuries are not priorities for them (66%); 3) the lack of interesting materials to provide the subject with documentation (63%); 4) the unsuitability of the place where the contact occurs for such discussion, given the time required (56%); 5) insufficient information on the subject (41%); and 6) the patient's lack of interest (39%). An overwhelming majority (98%) nevertheless feel that they have a role to play in preventing children's accidents in the home, with 72.5% seeing this as informative (recommendation on safety rules). More than two-thirds of the respondents feel that they have enough requisite information to play such a role. Those who declare that they have not enough information (34%) proposed some priority subjects about which they would like to find information or additional information to be more effective in preventing accidents. The information needs mentioned most frequently were a systematic review of the risks, of the effective prevention strategies and epidemiological data.

Conclusions. The present study clearly reveals the interest of physicians for accident prevention and puts forward the current obstacles to offering prevention advice during routine consultation. The obstacles mentioned are fairly comparable to those mentioned in other studies, namely, because the reason for the visit does not give such an opening, the lack of appropriate materials and information, the lack of time, the patient's lack of interest, the fact that the issue is not a priority, etc. The problem of lack of priority for certain practitioners underlines the importance of making accident mortality and morbidity statistics available to doctors in order to improve their perception of the magnitude of the problem. The lack of interesting education materials and useful information seems to be a major reason for their failure to carry out such prevention work successfully. These factors should thus be taken into account when developing any policy and/or programme aimed at ‘using’ GPs and paediatricians in the prevention strategies that are adopted.