Quality improvement and redesign of performance measurement systems: an application to the academic field

The increasing competition both in the public and private sectors gave rise to a growing interest in quality improvement and in designing and implementing Performance Measurement Systems (PMS). Academic organizations also recognized the need for implementing performance measurement systems. Some recent works on PMS in the higher education make use of the Kaplan and Norton’s Balanced Scorecard (BSC) to translate the characteristic strategic goals (e.g. research and teaching excellence) into performance measures. However, a PMS needs to be updated when external or internal changes influence the organization modus operandi. In this way a continuous quality improvement of organization performance is required. This paper describes a methodology based on the BSC model to redesign a current PMS. In detail, a reference BSC-check matrix is proposed. A “mapping analysis” of the current PMS is developed to understand if all the operational aspects involved in goals achievement are considered and if proper indicators have been defined. As an example, the methodology is applied to a Department of the authors’ own University. The paper shows also how the proposed approach can be extended to other contexts.     

Forecasting and stress testing credit card default using dynamic models

We present discrete time survival models of borrower default for credit cards that include behavioural data about credit card holders and macroeconomic conditions across the credit card lifetime. We find that dynamic models which include these behavioural and macroeconomic variables provide statistically significant improvements in model fit, which translate into better forecasts of default at both account and portfolio levels when applied to an out-of-sample data set. By simulating extreme economic conditions, we show how these models can be used to stress test credit card portfolios.     

Time-consistency of risk measures: how strong is such a property?

Decisions in Economics and Finance - Quite recently, a great interest has been devoted to time-consistency of risk measures in its different formulations (see Delbaen in Memoriam Paul-André...     

The physics of the city: pedestrians dynamics and crowding panic equation in Venezia

In this paper we present the physics of the city, a new approach in order to investigate the urban dynamics. In particular we focus on the citizens’ mobility observation and modeling. Being in principle the social dynamics not directly observable, our main idea is that observing the human mobility processes we can deduce some features and characteristics of social dynamics. We define the automata gas paradigm and we write a crowding equation able to predict, in a statistical sense, the threshold between a selforganized crowd and a chaotic one, which we interpret as the emergence of a possible panic scenario. We show also some specific results obtained on the Venezia pedestrian network. Firstly, analyzing the network we estimate the Venice complexity, secondly measuring the pedestrian flow on some bridges we find significant statistical correlations, and by the experimental data we design two different bridges flow profiles depending from the pedestrian populations. Furthermore considering a reduced portion of the city, i.e. Punta della Dogana, we build up a theoretical model via a Markov approach, with a stationary state solution. Finally implementing some individual characteristics of pedestrians, we simulate the flows finding a good agreement with the empirical distributions. We underline that these results can be the basis to construct an E-governance mobility system.     

Swap pricing and hedging of general DCFs

This paper shows that under payoff and/or interest rate uncertainty the splitting up of discounted cash flows (DCFs) into period addenda not only permits to quantify the contribution of each period to the total (random) DCF, but also allows us to price it and hedge the its risk. The contribution effect was already well known, while the pricing and hedging issue is new in this context. We first notice that—through the decomposition—each cash flow process can be interpreted as a swap one. We then resort to the risk-neutral pricing and hedging technique as applied to (exotic) swaps.     

In search of a theory of debt management

The complete market approach to government debt management argues that a portfolio of non-contingent bonds at different maturities should be chosen so that fluctuations in market value offset changes in expected future deficits. However, this approach recommends huge fluctuations in positions, enormous changes in portfolios for minor changes in maturities and no presumption it is always optimal to issue long and invest short term in a wide array of model specifications. These extreme, volatile and unstable features are undesirable for two reasons. Firstly fragility of portfolios to small changes in assumptions means that it is often better to follow a balanced budget rather than issue the optimal debt portfolio under some possibly misspecified model. Secondly for even miniscule transaction costs, governments prefer a balanced budget rather than the large positions complete markets recommends. The complete market recommendations conflict with a number of features we believe are integral to bond market incompleteness, e.g. transaction costs, liquidity effects, robustness, etc. and which need to be explicitly incorporated into the portfolio problem.     

Managing brand extension via licensing: An investigation into the high-end fashion industry

Brand managers are increasingly confronted with the option of licensing their brands when pursuing brand extensions. Such decisions are typically based on evaluation of the risks associated with such a contractual form, and with the nature of the asset at stake, i.e., the brand. Drawing on transaction cost economics and the brand extension literature, the authors investigate how managers balance the advantages of rapidly accessing new product categories through licensing with the risk of negative reciprocal effects and licensees' opportunistic behavior. Our results suggests that firms tend to be strategically conservative when examining how to extend their brands, as managers see the risk of negative effects on the parent brand as outweighing the advantages associated with licensing.