Stabilization, adjustment, and the poor

This paper attempts to survey the recent literature on the impact of stabilization and adjustment programs upon the poor and to consider some of the key issues in the context of a particular equity-oriented low-income country. Tanzania. After looking at some of the approaches of earlier studies, this paper analyzes the effects of restructuring policies, macroeconomic restraint, and strategic policy change. The author then reviews available evidence on the recent experience of Tanzania with external shock, efforts at stabilization, and relations with the IMF.In conclusion, the author argues that in order to better understand their impact on poverty we need more detailed analyses of specific countries' experience with different kinds of macroeconomic imbalance and different short- to medium-term policy responses. However, he does indicate with some certainty that when equivalent external blows impact upon very low-income countries, there must be a presumption that, other things being equal (including the distribution of income), the proportion of households and people pushed over the line into “absolute poverty” will be greater than in middle-income countries. The international community should provide external finance to aid these low-income countries in limiting the negative impact on the poorest.     

Thesen und Gegenthesen

Summary Theses and Counter-theses. Notes to Milton Friedman’s monetary concept of “New Liberalism.” —This paper summarizes Milton Friedman’s most important statements concerning problems of national money supply and credit policy into the following seven theses, to each of which the author opposes a counter-thesis. Thesis 1: The total amount of money in circulation is the most important monetary factor. Counter-thesis 1: The liquidity balance is the most important monetary factor. Thesis 2: The total amount of money influences nominal income and prices. Counter-thesis 2: Expenditure influences the amount of money. Thesis 3: The total amount of money can be manipulated by monetary policy. Counter-thesis 3: The amount of money in circulation cannot be manipulated. Thesis 4: Bank credits should be curtailed. Counter-thesis 4: Bank credits should be directed. Thesis 5: Monetary policy only with open market transactions. Counter-thesis 5: Credit policy through several combined instruments. Thesis 6: Price stability through a continuous development of the amount of money in circulation. Counter-thesis 6: Price stability through a continuous development of bank liquidity. Thesis 7: Monetary policy instead of fiscal policy. Counter-thesis 7: Credit policy and fiscal policy.

---

Résumé Thèses et contre-thèses. Remarques au sujet de la notion monétaire ?New Liberalism? de Milton Friedman. —Cet article résume les propositions les plus importantes de Milton Friedman concernant les problèmes de l’approvisionnement national en argent, et de la politique de crédit, en les présentant sous forme de sept thèses, à chacune desquelles l’auteur oppose une contre-thèse: Thèse 1: Le total de l’argent en circulation représente le facteur monétaire le plus important. Contre-thèse 1: Le solde de liquidité est le facteur monétaire le plus important. Thèse 2: Le total de l’argent en circulation exerce une influence sur le revenu nominal et les prix. Contre-thèse 2: Les dépenses exercent une influence sur le total de l’argent. Thèse 3: On peut contr?ler le total de l’argent en circulation par des mesures de politique monétaire. Contre-thèse 3: On ne peut pas exercer d’influence sur le total de l’argent en circulation. Thèse 4: II faut arrêter les crédits bancaires. Contre-thèse 4: II faut diriger les crédits bancaires. Thèse 5: Politique monétaire seulement avec des transactions de marché ouvert. Contre-thèse 5: Politique de crédit au moyen de plusieurs instruments combinés. Thèse 6: Stabilité des prix grace à un développement continu du total de l’argent en circulation. Contre-thèse 6: Stabilité des prix grace à un développement continu de la liquidité des banques. Thèse 7: Politique monétaire au lieu de politique fiscale. Contre-thèse 7: Politique de crédit et politique fiscale.

---

Resumen Tésis y antitesis. Comentarios sobre el concepto monetario del ?New Liberalism? de Milton Friedman. —En el presente trabajo el autor sintetiza las principales afirmaciones de Milton Friedman sobre problemas de provision de dinero y de política crediticia en siete tésis a las que opone otros tantos contraargumentos: Primera tesis: El volumen de dinero es la variable monetaria más importante. Contraargumento: El saldo de liquidez es la variable monetaria más importante. Segunda tesis: El volumen de dinero incide en el ingreso nominal y los precios. Contraargumento: Los gastos inciden en el volumen de dinero. Tercera tesis: El volumen de dinero puede ser regulado a través de la política monetaria. Contraargumento: El volumen de dinero no puedo ser regulado. Cuarta tesis: La creaci?n de crédites bancarios ha de ser reprimida. Contraargumento: La creaci?n de crédites bancarios ha de ser regulada. Quinta tesis: La politica monetaria debe basarse exclusivamente en operaciones del Banco Central en el mercado abierto. Contraargumento: La politica monetaria debe consistir en la aplicaci?n combinada de varios instrumentes. Sexta tesis: La estabilidad de precios se logrará por medio de una evolución continua de la masa dineraria. Contraargumento: La estabilidad de precios se logrará mediante una evolutión continua de las disponibilidades liquidas de la Banca. Séptima tesis: La politica coyuntural debe valerse de operaciones monetarias y no de operaciones fiscales. Contraargumento: La politica coyuntural debe valerse de operaciones tanto monetarias como fiscales.

---

Riassunto Tesi e controtesi. Osservazioni all’abbozzo monetario del ?New Liberalism? di Milton Friedman. —Le affermazioni più importanti di Milton Friedman sui problemi dell’approvigionamento nazionale del denaro e della politica di credito sono riassunte nel présente saggio nelle sette tesi seguenti, alle quali l’autore di volta in volta contrappone una controtesi: Tesi I: La quantità di denaro è la più importante grandezza monetaria. Controtesi I: II saldo di liquidità è la più importante grandezza monetaria. Tesi II: La quantità di denaro influisce sul reddito nominale e sui prezzi. Controtesi II: Le spese influiscono sulla quantità di denaro. Tesi III: La quantità di denaro puó essere diretta dal punto di vista della politica monetaria. Controtesi III: La quantità di denaro non puó essere influenzata. Tesi IV: Creazione di credito délie banche deve essere ostacolato. Controtesi IV: Creazione di credito délie banche deve essere diretto. Tesi V: Politica monetaria soltanto con transazioni di mercato aperto. Controtesi V: Politica creditizia con l’impiego combinato di più strumenti. Tesi VI: Stabilità dei prezzi mediante sviluppo continuo della quantità monetaria. Controtesi VI: Stabilità dei prezzi mediante sviluppo continuo della liquidità bancaria. Tesi VII: Politica monetaria invece di politica fiscale. Controtesi VII: Politica creditizia e politica fiscale.

     

An Analysis of Third Party Consumer Complaint Handling Mechanisms: The Hawaii Office of Consumer Protection

This paper presents a preliminary analysis of third party complaint handling mechanisms, based on data obtained from the Hawaii Office of Consumer Protection. Specifically, the study focuses on the types of complaints processed by the Agency, the factors which affect the redress received by consumers and the length of investigation time.     

Determinants of export performance

Comparative advantage, government incentives and entrepreneurial dynamics as determinants of a country’s export performance are discussed in this article. The author’s particular attention is focussed on the present situation and future perspectives of the less developed countries.     

Problems now and in the past

In some places, voices are raised today which assert that development aid is not worth the noise that is being made about it, because the industrialised countries went through exactly the same phase of development by their own, unaided efforts and still had arrived where they are now. Any development aid, so it is said, will only paralyse the determination of LDCs to aid themselves. The author discusses this assertion in the following article.     

MORE ON WELFARE GAINS TO DEVELOPING COUNTRIES FROM LIBERALIZING WORLD FOOD TRADE

The common presumption that food-importing developing countries would be harmed by a liberalization of world food trade is questioned in this paper. Both theory and new empirical modelling evidence suggest the possibility of the opposite conclusion. Even if just advanced industrial countries were to liberalize their food trade, the present empirical analysis (using a model of world food markets) suggests that economic welfare and net foreign exchange earnings from food trade could improve for the vast majority of developing countries. The extent to which that gain would be greater if developing countries also were to liberalize their policies affecting food markets is shown as well. The analysis helps to reconcile differences between previous results using partial-equilibrium models and those derived from computable general equilibrium models.