Les finances solidaires et l'économie sociale en roumanie: une réponse de «proximités» à la régionalisation d'une économie en transition?

La Roumanie apparaît en Europe centrale et orientale comme un territoire d'expérimentation d'une forme particulière d'économie sociale liant coopératives et organisations «not‐for‐profit». En transition économique et sociale, la Roumanie est également un pays en transition territoriale dont les systèmes de financements locaux ont quitté leur approche centralement planifiée, pour rejoindre un secteur financier solidaire dont les Instituts de Microfinance (IMFs) sont les principaux acteurs. La question à laquelle cet article tente d'apporter quelques éléments de réponse est celle du rôle de la finance solidaire locale dans la soutenabilité des transitions socio‐économiques territoriales en cours. Il s'agit d'envisager une économie humaine au sein de laquelle les conditions dignes de vie, nous amène à envisager un modèle particulier d'économie conviviale située à partir des outils conviviaux des finances solidaires locales.     

Robust adaptive rate-optimal testing for the white noise hypothesis

A new test is proposed for the weak white noise null hypothesis. The test is based on a new automatic selection of the order for a Box–Pierce (1970) test statistic or the test statistic of Hong (1996). The heteroskedasticity and autocorrelation-consistent (HAC) critical values from Lee (2007) are used, allowing for estimation of the error term. The data-driven order selection is tailored to detect a new class of alternatives with autocorrelation coefficients which can be o(n^−1/2)$o\left(n^{-1/2}\right)$ provided there are sufficiently many of such coefficients. A simulation experiment illustrates the good statistical properties of the test both under the weak white noise null and the alternative.     

Assessing impact of regulatory risk on shareholders’ wealth

Research indicates that regulatory risk increases required return on investment by investors and causes underinvestment in industries with high sunk costs. The effects of regulatory changes may be measured by estimating the abnormal returns associated with the event. The results may suggest to regulators what should be encouraged or avoided. This article utilizes a fixed effects regression to examine abnormal returns from changes in Philippine nationalization regulations. The results are consistent with extant literature. Supreme Court decisions, which increased uncertainty and regulatory risk, produced negative abnormal returns. The initial release of draft implementing rules did not produce statistically significant effects, but a succeeding draft favouring liberalization, produced positive abnormal returns.     

Forecasting the price of gold

This article seeks to evaluate the appropriateness of a variety of existing forecasting techniques (17 methods) at providing accurate and statistically significant forecasts for gold price. We report the results from the nine most competitive techniques. Special consideration is given to the ability of these techniques to provide forecasts which outperforms the random walk (RW) as we noticed that certain multivariate models (which included prices of silver, platinum, palladium and rhodium, besides gold) were also unable to outperform the RW in this case. Interestingly, the results show that none of the forecasting techniques are able to outperform the RW at horizons of 1 and 9 steps ahead, and on average, the exponential smoothing model is seen providing the best forecasts in terms of the lowest root mean squared error over the 24-month forecasting horizons. Moreover, we find that the univariate models used in this article are able to outperform the Bayesian autoregression and Bayesian vector autoregressive models, with exponential smoothing reporting statistically significant results in comparison with the former models, and classical autoregressive and the vector autoregressive models in most cases.     

论消费者权益案中的举证责任配置

与商品生产经营者相比，消费者在保护消费者权益过程中发生的经济关系中处于弱势地位，因而在侵权诉讼中配置举证责任时应向消费者倾斜，即消费者只需负责举证受损害的事实证据，其他举证责任则应由商品生产经营者负责。