Codependent cycles

This paper extends the work of Engle and Kozicki (1993) to test for co-movement in multiple time series when their cycles are not exactly synchronized. We call these codependent cycles and show that testing and estimation in this case will be a Generalized Method of Moments test and estimation procedure. We also show that the Tiao and Tsay (1985) proposed test for scalar components models of order (0, q) can be seen as a test for codependent cycles based on a consistent, but sub-optimal, estimate of the cofeature vector. We assess the small sample performance of the proposed tests through a series of simulations. Finally we apply this test to investigate comovement between durable and non-durable consumption expenditures.     

A Simplified Approach to Teaching the Value of Multinational Diversification

The purpose of this study was to examine the degree to which a specific time-based country experience outside of the subject’s native regional cultural cluster, would be able to explain the subject’s level of cultural intelligence. Using a sample of 143 subjects, the results suggest individuals who have identified the country within which they have spent the most total time to be a non-Anglo country had developed a higher level of cultural intelligence than demographically similar U.S. citizens in the sample who spent their most significant amount of time in an Anglo cluster country. In addition, it was found that those subjects within the Anglo culture cluster group who traveled internationally but spent the greater amount of time in a foreign Anglo culture country (i.e., non-USA), did not significantly differ in three of the four cultural dimensions from those who never traveled outside of the USA. These results suggest country choice can make a difference.     

Advertising and the Consumer

Abstract

This article is a re-evaluation of advertising as a method of mass communication of ideas and information to attempt to influence opinions and attitudes. Advertising used for these purposes has certain advantages compared with other means of mass communications. There are. however, disadvantages and limitations which should be recognized if the effectiveness of this use of advertising is to be improved.     

Why computer-mediated communication improves the effectiveness of fraud brainstorming

Current auditing standards require auditors to conduct a fraud brainstorming session aimed at considering ways in which the audit client's financial statements might be fraudulently misstated. Lynch et al. (2009) document that computer-mediated fraud brainstorming is significantly more effective than face-to-face brainstorming for generating relevant fraud risks. In this study, we code and analyze process-level data from the Lynch et al. (2009) study to understand the factors contributing to the greater effectiveness of electronic fraud brainstorming. Specifically, we conduct mediation analysis to discern the degree to which equality of participation and two measures of task focus contribute to greater fraud brainstorming effectiveness when using a computer-mediated communication system compared to traditional face-to-face brainstorming. We also examine participants' perceptions of ease of system use, satisfaction with the process, and satisfaction with the outcome. Overall, the results indicate that the primary reason for the greater effectiveness of electronic fraud brainstorming is the greater degree of task focus as revealed through the length of comments made when using computer-mediated fraud brainstorming. In an absolute sense, participants using electronic brainstorming felt that their brainstorming mode was easy to use and they were satisfied with the process and outcome. The primary contribution of this study is in enhancing our understanding of precisely why computer-mediated fraud brainstorming outperforms face-to-face fraud brainstorming.     

Economics and Prescribed Fire Law in the United States

Prescribed burning is increasingly recognized as a useful but risky land management and conservation tool. Common law relating to prescribed fire is generally predicated on negligence rules. However, virtually all states also have statutory law specifying liability rules or criminal penalties for prescribed burning, and the laws in many states have been changing substantially in recent years. We develop an economic model of the incentive and welfare effects of prescribed burning, where both the burner and potential victims of escaped fires can reduce expected damage with precautionary effort. The model provides implications regarding the comparative advantages of strict liability versus negligence rules. We then examine the characteristics and geographic distribution of prescribed fire liability law in the United States in the context of the model. Specifically, we discuss possible economic underpinnings of the recent emergence of statutes in southeastern states that are more supportive of prescribed fire use, despite its associated risks.     

A component model for dynamic correlations

We propose a model of dynamic correlations with a short- and long-run component specification, by extending the idea of component models for volatility. We call this class of models DCC-MIDAS. The key ingredients are the Engle (2002) DCC model, the Engle and Lee (1999) component GARCH model replacing the original DCC dynamics with a component specification and the Engle et al. (2006) GARCH-MIDAS specification that allows us to extract a long-run correlation component via mixed data sampling. We provide a comprehensive econometric analysis of the new class of models, and provide extensive empirical evidence that supports the model’s specification.     

A long-run Pure Variance Common Features model for the common volatilities of the Dow Jones

In this paper, a new model to analyze the comovements in the volatilities of a portfolio is proposed. The Pure Variance Common Features model is a factor model for the conditional variances of a portfolio of assets, designed to isolate a small number of variance features that drive all assets’ volatilities. It decomposes the conditional variance into a short-run idiosyncratic component (a low-order ARCH process) and a long-run component (the variance factors). An empirical example provides evidence that models with very few variance features perform well in capturing the long-run common volatilities of the equity components of the Dow Jones.     

A dymimic model of housing price determination

This paper presents and estimates a model of the resale housing market. The data are a cross-section of monthly time series obtained from the multiple-listing service for a suburb of San Diego. The model is specified and estimated as a dynamic multiple indicator multiple cause system of equations where the capitalization rate is taken to be an unobservable time series to be estimated jointly with the unknown parameters. These are estimated by maximum likelihood using an EM algorithm based upon Kalman filtering and smoothing.The specification of the model features hedonic equations for each house sale and a dynamic equation for the capitalization rate which is constrained to make the expectation of prices equal the present value of the net returns to home ownership whenever the economic variables stabilize at steady state values. Out of steady state, the capitalization rate slowly adapts to new information.The model attributes a large portion of housing price increases of the 1970's to a fall in the capitalization rate which in turn was driven by rental inflation, tax rates and mortgage rates. Post-sample simulations indicate an initial flattening of housing inflation rates and later a fall brought on by the increase in steady state capitalization rates. In-sample simulations show that although both Proposition 13 and the inflation induced rise in the marginal income tax rates provided partial explanations for the fall in capitalization rates, the single most important factor was the acceleration in price of housing services which interacted with the tax treatment of home ownership to produce an amazing 18% average annual rate of price increase over the last seven years of the 1970's.