Job generation and new and small firms: Some evidence from the late 1980s

This paper adopts a components of employment change methodology and examines the process of job generation in the late 1980s for three contrasting regions of the United Kingdom. The emphasis in the analysis is on the contribution of new and small firms to regional manufacturing employment growth. The results indicate the important role of new and small indigenous firms in the job generation process, particularly in Northern Ireland, in the period 1986–90. However, the level of displacement associated with these job creations is sufficiently high to cause concern about the longterm sustainability of these trends. The paper concludes by arguing that policies designed to stimulate new firm formation and small firm growth are not in themselves sufficient to promote growth.     

Delineating Foreign Market Potential: A Tool for International Market Selection

International expansion is becoming more imperative in today's marketplace. However, determining which markets best suit a specific company is not a straightforward task. This study tackles the question of how managers should go about identifying, evaluating, and selecting foreign markets. For this purpose, we propose a practical, flexible, and forward‐looking three‐stage template for assessing foreign market opportunities and identifying the most promising international markets. The three stages include determining country responsiveness for a specific industry, estimating future industry growth, and incorporating an industry‐relevant aggregate measure. The study illustrates the tool for three companies from various industries and discusses the implications. The proposed tool offers insights on crucial dimensions for the industry‐specific market potential, and assists managers in identifying favorable foreign markets. This study also addresses the gap in the international market selection literature by developing a new empirical tool for foreign market analysis and selection using longitudinal secondary data. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

Strategic Commitment and Timing of Internationalization from Emerging Markets: Evidence from China,India, Mexico,and South Africa

In a study of 257 new ventures from China, India, Mexico, and South Africa, we find support for the mediating effect of strategic early internationalization on international sales intensity. We argued that when new ventures from emerging markets internationalize early and with commitment, the legitimacy they acquire helps them overcome liabilities of newness and foreignness. We develop a typology of international new ventures that, based on strategic intent and timing of internationalization, distinguishes strategic early internationalizers from persistent, serendipitous, and long‐term internationalizers. We show that strategic early internationalization accounts for over half of the explained variance in international sales intensity and either fully or partially mediates the effects of managerial knowledge and market orientation on international sales intensity.     

Impacts of e-Commerce and Enhanced Information Endowments on Financial Services: A Quantitative Analysis of Transparency, Differential Pricing, and Disintermediation

Some implications of e-Commerce financial services firms are becoming clear. The web drives transparency, and increases the information endowment of all market participants. It is harder to manipulate customers' behavior, or to overcharge them. Transparency drives differential pricing. Not all customers can or should be charged the same prices. Transparency reduces the viability of cross-subsidies between customers can or between products. The differential pricing enabled by the web transforms distribution channels, and enables direct distribution and alternative forms of distribution. Some intermediateraries may be bypassed altogether, while others may rapidly lose their best, most profitable, and previously most loyal customers.     

Confidence and the transmission of government spending shocks

Is impacting confidence an important channel by which government spending shocks affect economic activity? In a standard structural VAR, an empirical measure of confidence does not significantly react to spending shocks and output multipliers are around one. In a non-linear VAR, confidence rises following an increase in spending during periods of economic slack and multipliers are much larger. The systematic response of confidence is irrelevant for the output multiplier during normal times, but is critical during recessions. Spending shocks during downturns predict productivity improvements through a persistent increase in government investment relative to consumption, which is reflected in higher confidence.     

“Black Swans” before the “Black Swan” evidence from international LIBOR–OIS spreads

The LIBOR–OIS spread is a closely monitored indicator of the financial health of economy. Previous research has used this spread to identify and anticipate abrupt changes in financial markets. Taylor and Williams (2009) refer to the drastic increase in the US LIBOR–OIS spread on August 7th, 2007 as a “Black Swan” in the money market. In this paper, rather than rely on visual observations of “Black Swans” we estimate them using Bai and Perron’s (1998) procedure. We estimate structural breaks, Granger causality tests, and innovation accounting in international LIBOR–OIS spreads and a CDS index to better understand their dynamics during the recent crisis. Our results reveal that “Black Swans” appeared in smaller economies prior to that in large ones during the financial crisis. In addition, we find that only shocks to the US LIBOR–OIS spread has any statistically significant effects after 30 days.     

Estimating the credibility of an exchange rate target zone

Recent breakthroughs in the theory of exchange rate target zones have not been followed by similar contributions on the empirical side. The drift adjustment method of evaluating the credibility of a target zone has become common practice. However, the estimates of the expected rate of depreciation inside the band do not model knowledge of the band in the agents' information set. In this paper, a rational expectations limited-dependent variable method to estimate the expected rate of depreciation is used to remedy this weakness. In the case of the franc-mark target zone with daily data covering a 4-year period, we show that expected rates of devaluation of the order of 2.5% were still present in the early 1990s. Their reappearance in the autumn of 1992 may thus not be surprising.     

Competitive decision making: Two and a half frames

We argue that the study of competitive decision making has been heavily influenced by the frames of reference that are adopted by researchers. The dominant economic frame and the emergent behavioral frame describe largely separate phenomena and have little overlap. Drawing from examples of learning in games and markets, we show how each of these frames falls short of capturing some interesting elements in competitive decisions. We then describe how a coevolutionary perspective may be emerging as an integrative paradigm for the study of competitive decisions.This paper was prepared for the conference, Understanding Competitive Decision Making. Comments by the participants of that conference and Paul Shoemaker are gratefully acknowledged, as are discussions with Colin Camerer, Eldar Shafir, and Sharoni Shafir.     

To Justify or Not to Justify: The Role of Anticipated Regret on Consumers’ Decisions to Upgrade Technological Innovations

Prior research suggests that adoption decisions are primarily based on product features and experiential opportunities, like trial and observation. Our research follows inquiries that identify anticipated regret (AR) as an emotion integral to consumer decision making. Prior research and current retailing practice assume that AR can be alleviated by compelling product attribute-based rationales for immediate purchase. These rationales often take the form of direct attribute comparisons between the current best and the future technologies. Counter-intuitively, we find that giving consumers attribute-based justifications for immediate purchase produces a uniform level of AR and purchase delay regardless of the perceived rate of innovation (PRI). However, under conditions of low PRI and no justification, AR decreases significantly. A clear implication of our findings is that firms marketing current technology should not rush to provide consumers with justifications for immediate upgrade since such communications will remind consumers of what they might miss if they adopt now, resulting in increased AR and purchase delays. Instead, we suggest that retailers focus promotional efforts on highlighting the hedonic benefits consumers experience by adopting today.