Futures and forward price differential and the effect of marking‐to‐market: Australian evidence

The objective of this paper is to examine the effects of marking‐to‐market of futures contracts on the price differential between futures and forward contracts based on the predictions of the Cox, Ingersoll and Ross (1981) (CIR) model. Cox et al ., (1981) derive a series of propositions with respect to the relationship between futures and forward prices and a set of testable implications. These are tested empirically in this paper using Australian data from November 1991 to June 1997. The results provide evidence of the presence of significant futures and forward price differences, where the futures price is consistently below the forward price. Only partial support is found for the Cox et al ., (1981) propositions, implying that the effect of marking‐to‐market is not able to fully account for the price differential. Therefore, it is not possible to rule out the influence of other institutional factors on the futures‐forward price difference.     

The Contingent Value of Responsive and Proactive Market Orientations for New Product Program Performance*

While the benefits of being market oriented are largely accepted, a group of scholars and managers remain skeptical. Marketing scholars have sought to counter the criticisms leveled against market orientation (MO) by arguing that it has both responsive and proactive dimensions. However, few studies have empirically examined the complexity of the effects of these dimensions on firm performance. Drawing on theories of resource‐based advantage and organizational search behavior, this article advances understanding by arguing that responsive and proactive market orientations have curvilinear effects on product development performance, that their interaction may be positively related to product development performance, and that their effects on new product program performance are moderated differentially by the organizational implementation conditions and marketing function power. Survey results of 175 U.S. firms indicate support for most of the hypotheses. Specifically, whereas responsive MO has a U‐shaped relationship with new product program performance, proactive MO has an inverted U‐shaped relationship with new product program performance. Contrary to the arguments presented here, the interaction of both orientations is negatively related to new product program performance. This study finds that both orientations are needed; however, new product program performance is enhanced when one is at higher level and the other is at lower level. Finally, responsive MO is only positively related to new product program performance under specific conditions such as when strategic consensus among managers is high. On the other hand, the positive effect of proactive MO on new product program performance is further strengthened when learning orientation and marketing power are high. Overall, this study suggests that the effects of responsive and proactive MO on new product program performance are more complex than previously theoretically argued and empirically examined.     

Employment,schooling and productivity growth

Summary This paper presents an empirical analysis of labour demand and labour productivity growth in The Netherlands. Assuming an aggregate production function with as factors capital and 3 types of labour, distinguished by educational attainment, cost minimization leads to a set of 3 labour demand relations to be estimated on time series data. Using the estimates and the implied elasticities, aggregate labour productivity growth is decomposed into factor substitution, autonomous factors, labour time shortening, economies of scale, utilization rates and the increased educational level of the working population. The contributions of substitution, utilization rates and education appear to be substantial, notably in the seventies.

List of symbols

Variables a _i Efficiency index of skill leveli - C production - h _i working-time index for skill leveli - g _i steady-state growth rate of skill leveli - K capital stock - L _i employment volume of skill leveli - L _i ^* desired level of labour skill leveli - p output price - p ^* desired output price - s _i ^* long-run static labour shares in the production value - p _k rental price of capital - P index of total factor productivity - P _l index of labour productivity - u _i utilization rate of skill leveli - u _k utilization rate of capital - w _i wage rate for skill leveli - y production volume - y _yij Hicks partial elasticities of complementarity - _i steady-state cost share of skill leveli - _k Bk steady-state cost share of capital - _f lf highest level price index in cost function nesting - _g 4 intermediate level price index in cost function nesting - _h 4 lowest level price index in cost function nesting - _i steady-state relative wage share of skill leveli - _ij Allen partial elasticities of substitution Parameters d _i l adjustment speed of skill leveli - d _p price adjustment speed - M mark-up on marginal costs - scale elasticity of production - _i distribution parameter in cost function,i = 3, g - _i distribution parameter in cost function,i = k, h - _i distribution parameter in cost function,i =1, 2 - _i autonomous labour productivity growth for skill leveli - _i cost share of skill level in base year - _f production cost index in base year - _i hours elasticity in labour efficiency index - group elasticity of substitution betweenL ₃ and (K, (L ₁,L ₂)) - _g Og group elasticity of substitution betweenK and (L ₁,L ₂) - _h 6h group elasticity of substitution betweenL ₁ andL ₂ We would like to thank B. Downey, G.M.M. Gelauff, A. Nieuwenhuis, J.M.M. Ritzen, J.C. Siebrand and an unknown referee for helpful comments on earlier drafts.     

The excess burden of the tax and social premium system for Dutch married women

Summary The excess burden of a tax is the diminution of utility above that which would have occurred had the tax been collected as a lump sum. Computing the excess burden for the 1983 and 1985 Dutch tax and social premium system enables a partial welfare evaluation of the recent changes in the system, the so-called Tweeverdienersmaatregelen. Based on the equivalent and compensating variation, the excess burden as a percentage of the taxes and social premiums for the 1983 and 1985 system are valued at 27010 and 84010, and 37010 and 58010 respectively. This result indicates that, welfare-theoretically, the old system seems preferable to the new one.The author wishes to thank Hans Doodeman, Paul Renaud and Jacques Siegers for their critical remarks on an earlier version of this article.     

Lifecourse migration and redistribution of the elderly across U.S. regions and metropolitan areas

This analysis investigates the assertion that the baby-boom cohorts, by virtue of their large size and new lifecourse redistribution tendencies, are likely to initiate significant shifts in the distribution of the elderly population as these cohorts enter into the 65-and-older age categories. The author contends that cohorts' pre-elderly lifecourse migration patterns should be incorporated into studies of elderly population distribution shifts. 2 questions are addressed: will the new lifecourse migration patterns provide for a more deconcentrated redistribution of the baby-boom cohorts, both prior to and after their entry into the elderly age categories, than the lifecourse migration patterns followed by earlier cohorts; and will the new lifecourse distribution pattern lead, in the long run, to a significantly more deconcentrated distribution of the elderly population. The examination of these 2 questions focuses, largely, on redistribution across 9 broad regional and metropolitan area groupings defined on the basis of 3 census regions -- the North (combining the Northeast and Midwest census regions), the South, and the West -- and 3 categories of metropolitan status -- large metropolitan areas (those with 1980 populations exceeding 1 million), other metropolitan areas, and nonmetropolitan areas. The comparison of "new" versus "old" lifecourse migration patterns contrasts the census-based age-specific migration stream rates, registered over the 1975-80 period, with those registered over the 1965-70 period. Given the sharp and broad-based shift toward deconcentrated redistribution which characterized practically all segments of the population during the 1970s, it is assumed that the age-specific migration patterns observed over the 1975-80 period approximate the more deconcentrated redistribution tendencies which will be adopted by the baby-boom cohorts (and their successors) over the remainder of their lifecourse. The 1965-70 net migration rates point up the aggregate redistribution implications associated with the "old" lifecourse migration stream patterns. Among the rates for North large metropolitan areas, the only positive net migration is observed for the 25-29 age category; the greatest net outmigration rate is shown for the 65-69 age category. The rates for South nonmetropolitan areas are negative for all age categories under age 55, and most accentuated outmigration is shown during the young-adult years. The positive net migration exhibited for the older adult and post retirement ages reflects the low outmigration rates from nonmetropolitan areas during these ages and the slight peaking of immigration for these years. The results of this analysis imply that more attention should be devoted to migration, over the entirety of the lifecourse, in future studies of population redistribution.     

Book Reviews

Richard Robison, Indonesia: The Rise of Capital, Allen and Unwin, Sydney, 1986 pp. xxv + 425. Indexed. $19.95.

W.L. Korthals Altes, Changing Economy in Indonesia: Volume 7: Balance of Payments, 1822–1939, Amsterdam: The Royal Tropical Institute. pp. 167.

Trade Statistics, Java, 1823–73: Trade Statistics, Indonesia 1874–1937. Mededeelingen van het Centraal Kantoor voor de Statistiek nos 160 and 161

Om Prakash, The Dutch East India Company and the Economy of Bengal, 1630–1720, Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1985 pp. xii + 291, map, tables. graphs, glossary, index. Cloth $38.50.

Sediono M.P. Tjondronegoro, Social Organization and Planned Development in Rural Java, Singapore, Oxford University Press for the Institute of Southeast Asian Studies, 1984, pp. xv + 326.

A. Fujimoto and F. Matsuda (eds), An Economic Study of Rice Farming in West Java, Tokyo: NODAI Research Institute, Tokyo, University of Agriculture, 1986.

A. Fujimoto and T. Matsuda (eds), A Comparative Study of the Structure of Rice Productivity and Rural Society in Southeast Asta Two Village Studies in Indonesta and Thailand, Tokyo: University of Agriculture, 1985. Reviewed by C.L J. van der Meer (1986) Bulletin of Indanesian Economic Studies, 22(2) pp. 124–27

David Jenkins, Suharto and His Generals: Indonesian Military Politics, 1975–1983, Ithaca: Cornell Modern Indonesia Project, Monograph Series No. 64, 1984, pp. xiii + 280. US$12.50. David Bourchier, Dynamics of Dissent in Indonesia Sawito and the Phantom Coup, Ithaca: Cornell Modern Indonesia Project, Interim Reports Series, 1984, pp. 128. US$9.00.

Linda G. Martin (ed), The ASEAN Success Story: Social, Economic, and Political Dimensions, East-West Center, distributed by the University of Hawaii Press, Honolulu, 1987, pp. xviii + 253. $15.00.

Mubyarto and Edy Suandy Hamid (eds), Kredit Pedesaan di Indonesia, Badan Penerbit Fakultas Ekonomi, U.G.M., 1986 pp, 160.

Ron Hatley, et al., Other Javas Away from the Kraton, Melbourne: Monash University, 1984, pp. 60.

K.S. Nathan and M. Pathmanathan (eds), Trilateralism in Asia: Problems and Prospects in US-Japan-ASEAN Relations, Antara Book Company, Kuala Lumpur, 1986, pp. xviii + 205. $18.00 (cloth): $12.00 (paper).     

De produktiestructuur van Nederland in de periode 1950-1966

Summary In 1961 Arrow, Chenery, Minhas and Solow presented their C.E.S. production function, which was based on the relation between the real wage rate and the average labour productivity. They argued that, if the aggregate production function is continuous, lineair and homogeneous, then, with perfect competition and profit maximalization prevailing, the relation between the real wage rate and the average labour productivity is reflection of the production structure. This relation can, therefore, be used for specifying the production structure.In the present paper, the same line of thought is applied to the Dutch economy. Several hypotheses on the relation between wage rate and average labour productivity are tested. Statistically, it turns out that in the Dutch economy the elasticity of substitution between capital and labour is not a constant: it declines with increasing capital-labour ratio. Two statistically acceptable production equations that have this feature are presented.The efficiency parameter appearing as an integration constant in both production equations shows a decline: with labour productivity constant, the capital-labour ratio is falling over time. This means that the relation between labour productivity and capital-labour ratio shifts over time. Another outcome of this study is that technical progress is capitalaugmenting and that it brings about 50 percent of the growth in the labour productivity.De schrijvers zijn dank verschuldigd aan Prof. Dr. F. J. de Jong voor zijn stimulerende kritiek en aan de heren J. G. Althuis, F. J. van Bolhuis, J. D. Flikweert, H. Jager en B. S. Wilpstra, assistenten bij de afdeling Algemene Economie van de Economische Faculteit der Rijksuniversiteit te Groningen, voor hun bereidwillige medewerking aan dit onderzoek.