An Illustrated User Guide to the World Input–Output Database: the Case of Global Automotive Production

This article provides guidance to prudent use of the World Input–Output Database (WIOD) in analyses of international trade. The WIOD contains annual time‐series of world input–output tables and factor requirements covering the period from 1995 to 2011. Underlying concepts, construction methods and data sources are introduced, pointing out particular strengths and weaknesses. We illustrate its usefulness by analyzing the geographical and factorial distribution of value added in global automotive production and show increasing fragmentation, both within and across regions. Possible improvements and extensions to the data are discussed.     

Linking Individual‐Level Knowledge Sourcing to Project‐Level Contributions in Large R&D‐Driven Product‐Development Projects

This paper focuses on the link between individuals’ knowledge sourcing and their creative contributions, such as new ideas and solutions in R&D‐driven product‐development projects; creative contributions were both self‐ and peer‐assessed. The paper reveals that, for individuals, knowledge sources internal to the organization were generally regarded as more important than external knowledge sources. However, external parties such as customers, partners, and suppliers constitute the knowledge source that best predicted creative contributions at the project level. Informal external contacts were deemed the least important knowledge source by individuals; however, this was positively related to self‐assessed creative contributions. The paper thus finds that there is a discrepancy between the knowledge sources deemed important by individuals and the sources that are associated with creative contributions at the project level.     

Supply Response to Countercyclical Payments and Base Acre Updating under Uncertainty: An Experimental Study

We design an experiment to simulate how people make agricultural production decisions under three policy scenarios, each incorporating direct payments (DPs): ( a ) price uncertainty without countercyclical payments (CCPs); ( b ) price uncertainty with CCPs; and ( c ) price uncertainty, CCPs, and uncertainty regarding base acreage updating. Results are the CCP program and perceived possibility of future base updating created incentives for subjects to invest more in program (base) crops, despite payments being decoupled from current production decisions. Those choosing to reduce revenue risk by increasing plantings of base crops may face reduced incomes, suggesting the efficiency of crop markets may be diminished.     

An equilibrium closure result for discontinuous games

For games with discontinuous payoffs Simon and Zame (Econometrica 58:861–872, 1990) introduced payoff indeterminacy, in the form of endogenous sharing rules, which are measurable selections of a certain payoff correspondence. Their main result concerns the existence of a mixed Nash equilibrium and an associated sharing rule. Its proof is based on a discrete approximation scheme “from within” the payoff correspondence. Here, we present a new, related closure result for games with possibly noncompact action spaces, involving a sequence of Nash equilibria. In contrast to Simon and Zame (Econometrica 58:861–872, 1990), this result can be used for more involved forms of approximation, because it contains more information about the endogenous sharing rule. With such added precision, the closure result can be used for the actual computation of endogenous sharing rules in games with discontinuous payoffs by means of successive continuous interpolations in an approximation scheme. This is demonstrated for a Bertrand type duopoly game and for a location game already considered by Simon and Zame. Moreover, the main existence result of Simon and Zame (Econometrica 58:861–872, 1990) follows in two different ways from the closure result.     

The Delphi method as early warning: Linking global societal trends to future radicalization and terrorism in The Netherlands

A Delphi study was performed to answer the question: Which global societal trends relate to future radicalization and subsequent terrorism in the Netherlands? An inventory of two hundred global societal trends and a literature study of radicalization together served as briefing of the participants in the Delphi study. The first two rounds were conducted in anonymous writing. The third round was a face to face focus group meeting. In the first and second round participants scored the trends, adjusted their scores relative to others and provided arguments, and in the focus group meeting, themes were discussed in which the participants remained to have strong opposite views. This approach emphasizes divergence in opinion (‘dissensus’), as opposed to convergence (‘consensus’). Consensus seeking to us seems to be the dominant application of Delphi, but we emphasize the value of seeking dissensus. We hypothesize that in those cases where the opposite views that were discussed kept their ground, this Delphi study may have found early warnings of future radicalization.The essence of this paper is that it is possible, with limited effort, to get a handle on the complex and poorly defined subject of global societal trends influencing future radicalization. Application of the Dissensus Delphi method provided a selection of early warnings that may be looked into with future research.     

Mergers and capital flight in unionised oligopolies: Is there scope for a “national champion” policy?

Many policy makers seem to prefer domestic alternatives to cross-border mergers. We construct a model where cross-border mergers drive down union-set wages, domestic mergers have non-labour cost synergies and policy evaluators care more about workers than capital owners. Apparently, the stage is set for “national champion” policies to be sensible. However, we also introduce the possibility of capital flight by allowing a domestic firm to move production abroad. Restrictive cross-border merger policies can then seriously backfire, since they do not necessarily bring about a domestic merger — but capital flight instead.     

Informal Employment and the Role of Regional Governance

The aim of this paper is to provide an explanation to why the degree of informal employment may vary substantially between different regions within a country. In Brazil, 45% of workers in the urban labor force are employed informally. The degree of informal employment, however, varies substantially across regions, with some cities having 20% and others having 80% or more of their labor force in the informal sector. The hypothesis assessed here is that the quality of local governance—or government effectiveness—affects the decisions of workers and businesses as to whether to participate in the formal or the informal sector. The empirical analysis, based on data from 5500 Brazilian municipalities, shows that informal employment is lower in regions with better governance, higher average education, and with a relatively large manufacturing sector. Endogeneity concerns are addressed as part of a series of robustness checks of the results.