Short and long-term interactions between venture capital returns and the macroeconomy: evidence for the United States

The main purpose of this paper is to empirically model the influence of macroeconomic and financial variables on the performance of risk capital in the US. We start our investigation using a static long-run equilibrium model. In contrast to previous studies, we analyze the effect of several factors simultaneously within the framework of a vector error correction model (VECM). This allows us to study short- and long-term interactions to overcome the problem of endogeneity, and to discover causal mechanisms. The results show that the value of venture capital investments is positively related to industrial production, the exit channel Nasdaq, and the long-term interest rate. However, the value of venture capital investments is negatively related to the short-term interest rate. According to the short-term dynamics, VEC Granger causality confirms that only industrial production influences venture capital performance, while venture capital returns Granger causes Nasdaq performance.     

Consumer adoption of Internet banking in Jordan: Examining the role of hedonic motivation,habit, self-efficacy and trust

Despite the rapid growth of Internet banking (IB), customers in developing countries still hesitate to adopt this technology and its use in the Middle East remains low. This study aims to identify and examine the factors that predict behavioural intention and adoption of IB in Jordan. Four factors – hedonic motivation, habit, self-efficacy and trust – are proposed in a conceptual model. Data was collected by means of a survey with bank customers in Jordan. Structural equation modelling (SEM) was used to analyse the data. The results strongly supported the conceptual model. Further, hedonic motivation, habit, self-efficacy and trust were all confirmed to have a significant influence on behavioural intention. Trust was found to be strongly predicted by both hedonic motivation and self-efficacy. This study provides both academics and practitioners with an insight into the factors that can be used to encourage customer adoption of IB specifically in a Middle East context.     

What Plato Knew About Enron

This paper applies Plato’s cave allegory to Enron’s success and downfall. Plato’s famous tale of cave dwellers illustrates the different levels of truth and understanding. These levels include images, the sources of images, and the ultimate reality behind both. The paper first describes these levels of perception as they apply to Plato’s cave dwellers and then provides a brief history of the rise of Enron. Then we apply Plato’s levels of understanding to Enron, showing how the company created its image and presented information to support that image, and how the public eventually emerged from the cave to realize the truth about Enron’s actual accounting practices and financial state, which led to the corporation’s downfall. We find Plato’s allegory both useful in analyzing the relationship between Enron and the public and instructive about the power and moral responsibility of Enron’s executives.     

Umgang mit Aggressionen

Herausforderndes Verhalten bei Demenz - Wenn Aggression, erh?hter Bewegungsdrang, starke Orientierungsprobleme, Selbst- und Fremdgef?hrdung oder andere „herausfordernde“ Verhaltensweisen auftreten, wird die Pflege und Begleitung von Demenzkranken als Belastung erlebt. Doch Pflegende stehen dem Problem nicht hilflos gegenüber. Eine interdisziplin?re Expertengruppe gibt mit ihren Empfehlungen ein Handlungsgerüst.     

The contextual nature of the predictive power of statistically-based quarterly earnings models

We present new empirical evidence on the contextual nature of the predictive power of five statistically-based quarterly earnings expectation models evaluated on a holdout period spanning the twelve quarters from 2000–2002. In marked contrast to extant time-series work, the random walk with drift (RWD) model provides significantly more accurate pooled, one-step-ahead quarterly earnings predictions for a sample of high-technology firms (n = 202). In similar predictive comparisons, the Griffin-Watts (GW) ARIMA model provides significantly more accurate quarterly earnings predictions for a sample of regulated firms (n = 218). Finally, the RWD and GW ARIMA models jointly dominate the other expectation models (i.e., seasonal random walk with drift, the Brown-Rozeff (BR) and Foster (F) ARIMA models) for a default sample of firms (n = 796). We provide supplementary analyses that document the: (1) increased frequency of the number of loss quarters experienced by our sample firms in the holdout period (2000–2002) vis-à-vis the identification period (1990–1999); (2) reduced levels of earnings persistence for our sample firms relative to earnings persistence factors computed by Baginski et al. (2003) during earlier time periods (1970s–1980s); (3) relative impact on the predictive ability of the five expectation models conditioned upon the extent of analyst coverage of sample firms (i.e., no coverage, moderate coverage, and extensive coverage); and (4) sensitivity of predictive performance across subsets of regulated firms with the BR ARIMA model providing the most accurate predictions for utilities (n = 87) while the RWD model is superior for financial institutions (n = 131).

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Foreign Direct Investment in the Enlarged EU: Do Taxes Matter and to What Extent?

Foreign direct investment is of increasing importance in the European Union. This paper estimates the effect of taxes on foreign direct investment (FDI) flows and on three sub-components of these flows for the countries of the enlarged European Union. The model in the spirit of gravity equations robustly explains FDI flows between the 25 member states. Sample selection needs to be addressed in the estimation. We show that the different subcomponents of FDI should and indeed do react differently to taxes. After controlling for unobserved country characteristics and common time effects, the top statutory corporate tax rate of both, source and host country, turn insignificant for total FDI and investment into equity. However, high source country taxes clearly increase the probability of firms to re-invest profits abroad and lower the percentage of debt financed FDI. This might reflect profit re-allocation to avoid taxes. Market size factors have the expected signs.

Wal-Mart’s Impact on Local Revenue and Expenditure Instruments in Ohio, 1988–2003

This research estimates fiscal impacts of Wal-Mart in Ohio from 1985 through 2003. Using a panel of counties, and accounting for spatial autocorrelation in an instrumental variable model I estimate impact of Wal-Mart and Super-Centers on selected revenues and transfer payments. Among the findings is that the presence of a Wal-Mart increases local commercial property tax assessments resulting in collection increases of between $350,000 and $1.3 million. There is also an 18–43% reduction in per capita EITC claims in a county. However, Medicaid expenditures experience growth which amount to roughly 16 additional cases attributable to a single Wal-Mart. The magnitude and statistical certainty of these findings, suggests that local fiscal intervention, either through incentives or a “Wal-Mart Tax” is unwarranted.

Connecting National Safety Nets: The Dialectics of the Basel II Contracting Process

Basel II consists of supervisory guidelines negotiated by representatives of central banks and national regulatory commissions that were members of the Basel committee on Banking Supervision (BCBS). The BCBS is itself a regulatory response to globalization, which is connecting national safety nets in market-driven ways. A country’s financial safety net is a social contract established by short-lived agents for principals in long-lived economic sectors. Restraints placed on the authority of the BCBS members to contract for their principals by domestic politics explains: why Basel II authorizes individual countries to implement the agreement in markedly different ways; why US implementation of Basel II ran into so much doubt, controversy, and delay; and how the implementation debate set small and large banks and the Federal Reserve and other federal regulators against one another.

Consumer specialization and the Romantic transformation of the British Grand Tour of Europe

This paper posits that significant changes in 19th century British recreational travel patterns resulted from a change in the manner in which tourists used entertaining stimuli in order to attain pleasure. Consumers no longer merely viewed arousing stimuli, but attempted to use them to produce emotional states of being which they could partially modify to intensify pleasurable feelings (Damasio, Looking for Spinoza: Joy, sorrow, and the feeling brain, William Heinemann, 2003). The impetus for this modification stemmed from an increasing awareness that emotional responses could be to some degree self-cultivated, as embodied in the Romantic ethos that become popular at the time via the emergence of the paperback novel and magazine industry (Campbell, The romantic ethic and the spirit of modern consumerism, Blackwell, 1987). By learning how to manipulate and modify mental images in a way that may not necessarily correspond with objective reality, Romantic tourists learned to elicit pleasure through engaging of their imagination. Such a change in the mode of pleasure seeking had important long run economic consequences for tourist regions throughout the European continent.