Exports, economic growth and the consolidation of peace in El Salvador

The pillars of inclusive growth in El Salvador have to be nontraditional export growth, investment, and government determination to reduce income inequality and poverty. This article analyzes the key obstacles to the development of a competitive and dynamic export sector: Dutch Disease driven by aid and remittances, a significant decline in real wages, and lack of productivity growth. Policies can and must focus on productivity growth rather than wage repression, in the pursuit of peace consolidation and long-term competitiveness.     

On the Validity of the Wiener Process Assumption in Option Pricing Models: Contradictory Evidence from Taiwan

This study tests the validity of the critical assumption underlying the option pricing model that the log form of the stock price movements follows the Wiener process, i.e., stock price movements follow a geometric Brownian motion. Using data compiled from the Taiwan Stock Exchange (TSE), this study's major empirical findings are as follows: first, the null hypothesis that the log of the stock prices is normally distributed is rejected; second, the null hypothesis that the stock price in log form has mean [ln P _s + (µ- ²)_t] and variance t is rejected; third, the null hypothesis that successive non-overlapping increments of the log of the stock price are independent from each other is also rejected. These empirical findings undermine the validity of the Wiener process assumption which is fundamental to many option pricing models.     

Fundamental Drivers of Dependence in REIT Returns

We analyse the empirical relationships between firm fundamentals and the dependence structure between individual REIT and stock market returns. In contrast to previous studies, we distinguish between the average systematic risk of REITs and their asymmetric risk in the sense of a disproportionate likelihood of joint negative return clusters between REITs and the stock market. We find that REITs with low systematic risk are typically small, with low short-term momentum, low turnover, high growth opportunities and strong long-term momentum. Holding systematic risk constant, the main driving forces of asymmetric risk are leverage and, to some extent, short-term momentum. Specifically, we find that leverage has an asymmetric effect on REIT return dependence that outweighs the extent to which it increases the average sensitivity of REIT equity to market fluctuations, explaining the strong negative impact of leverage on firm performance especially during crisis periods that has been documented in recent empirical work.     

Asset pricing with adaptive learning

We study the extent to which self-referential adaptive learning can explain stylized asset pricing facts in a general equilibrium framework. In particular, we analyze the effects of recursive least squares and constant gain algorithms in a production economy and a Lucas type endowment economy. We find that (a) recursive least squares learning has almost no effects on asset price behavior, since the algorithm converges relatively fast to rational expectations, (b) constant gain learning may contribute towards explaining the stock price and return volatility as well as the predictability of excess returns in the endowment economy but (c) in the production economy the effects of constant gain learning are mitigated by the persistence induced by capital accumulation. We conclude that in the context of these two commonly used models, standard linear self-referential learning does not resolve the asset pricing puzzles observed in the data.     

The impact of electricity prices on foreign direct investment: evidence from the European Union

We examine the impact of electricity price variation on net FDI (%GDP) inflows in countries of the European Union. We use panel data of 27 EU countries for a period of 2003 – 2013. We show that electricity prices of south-western and north-eastern EU countries did not converge to one price until now. Dynamic panel data analysis using system GMM shows that besides unit labour costs, tax rates and competitive disadvantage in secondary education, also higher electricity prices reduce countries’ ability to attract FDI. The immediate effects are statistically significant across both sub-regions analysed: in the short run, a 10% increase in electricity prices leads to a decrease in net FDI inflows as a share of GDP by 0.4 percentage points for the south-western and 0.33 for the north-eastern region. In the long run, the response is 0.60 percentage points for south-western and 0.48 for north-eastern regions. Policies should aim at reducing electricity market price differences on the European level through investment in transborder transmission capacity; reductions in FDI, when environmental policy increases after-tax electricity prices, should be countered by other tax reductions as well as harmonization of property rights, absence of corruption and labour market regulations at best-practice level.     

Crisis of Capitalism and (De-)Politicisation of Monetary Policymaking: Reflections from Hungary and Turkey

This article explores the changes in monetary policymaking in Hungary and Turkey in the context of the post-2008 global financial crisis and restructuring. Both countries went through a thorough restructuring process in the pre-2008 context. While this process has introduced and consolidated depoliticised forms of governing to a certain degree in both countries, we suggest that the latest crisis has contributed to the emergence of a politicisation process. In the Hungarian case, these processes are reflected in both discursive attempts and the instalment of visible centralised control over the management of money. In Turkey, intensifying discursive attempts to politicize monetary policy have not led to an explicit change in the formally depoliticised character of central banking until recently but politicised other policy areas. In both countries, the process has accompanied the entrenchment of increasingly oppressive discourse and practices as part of the overall management of the crisis-ridden capitalist social relations. The paper aims to explore these similarities and differences within a critical political economy approach to state, governing strategies and (de)politicisation and to contribute to advancing research beyond the established case studies in the existing literature.     

Consumer Adaptation Strategies: From Austrian Shilling to the Euro

On 1st January 2002, in 12 countries of the European Union, euro notes and coins replaced existing national currencies. The currency changeover required citizens to adapt in various ways. They had to learn to handle new coins and notes, and evaluate prices in the new currency. Data on how these tasks were performed by Austrians are presented. In particular, Austrian consumers applied four different strategies to establish price intuition for the euro: a conversion strategy, an intuitive strategy, an anchor strategy, and a marker value strategy. Data on these strategies show that their application varies across socio-demographic characteristics, differs with purchase situations, relates to euro attitudes, and changes over time. Although the introduction of the euro took place about 5 years ago, the adaptation process is still ongoing.     

China＇s Role in Purchasing Chain

In current world market,＂Made-in-China＂often means good price and competitive quality.In terms of China＇s trade pattern,more than half of Chinese exporting products belong to processing trade industry according to the demands and requirements of international orders.On the purchasing chain,China is learning from its international partners.Safety and quality always tops all issues.[第一段]     

Prevalence and Persistence of High-Growth Entrepreneurship: Which Institutions Matter Most?

Journal of Industry, Competition and Trade - Which institutions encourage high-growth entrepreneurship to emerge and to be sustained? Building on institutional theory, this study exploits a sample...