Information and Disclosure in Strategic Trade Policy: Revisited

In a recent paper, Creane and Miyagiwa (J Int Econ 75:229–244, 2008) show that the mode of competition determines whether information sharing occurs between firms and governments within an international duopoly context in which the firms are located in different countries. In this paper, we show that when a price instrument is implemented to control exports, then the relative number of firms located in each country is also critical. In particular, we illustrate that with quantity competition and under the presence of demand and cost uncertainty, information sharing does not occur when the number of firms in one country is higher than the number of firms in the other country and vice-versa. However, when direct quantity controls are implemented the number of firms is irrelevant and information sharing always occurs. Moreover, we show that the informational prisoner’s dilemma restricts only to the case where subsidies are implemented in both countries when the number of firms across countries is equal.     

Probabilistic sophistication,second order stochastic dominance and uncertainty aversion

We study the interplay of probabilistic sophistication, second order stochastic dominance and uncertainty aversion, three fundamental notions in choice under uncertainty. In particular, our main result, Theorem 2, characterizes uncertainty averse preferences that are probabilistically sophisticated, as well as uncertainty averse preferences that satisfy second order stochastic dominance. As a byproduct, Proposition 2 highlights a fundamental tension between probabilistic sophistication/second order stochastic dominance and uncertainty aversion in the presence of nontrivial unambiguous events.     

The Great Recession: US dynamics and spillovers to the world economy

This paper provides an empirical investigation of both the within-US and international channels of transmission of macroeconomic and financial shocks by means of a 50-country macroeconometric model (estimated over the 1980-2009 period), including measures of excess liquidity and financial fragility, specifically designed in order to evaluate the relevance of the boom-bust credit cycle view put forward as an interpretation of the recent “Great Recession” episode. We find that such a view is consistent with the empirical evidence. Moreover, concerning the real effects of financial shocks within the US, we detect stronger evidence of an asset prices channel, rather than a liquidity channel. Concerning the spillovers to the world economy, we find that while financial disturbances are transmitted to foreign countries through US house and stock price dynamics, as well as excess liquidity creation, the trade channel is the key trasmission mechanism of real shocks.     

A new model of income distribution: the κ-generalized distribution

This paper proposes a three-parameter statistical model of income distribution by exploiting recent developments on the use of deformed exponential and logarithm functions as suggested by Kaniadakis (Phys A 296:405–425, 2001; Phys Rev E 66:056125, 2002; Phys Rev E 72:036108, 2005). Formulas for the shape, moments and standard tools for inequality measurement are given. The model is shown to fit remarkably well the personal income data for Great Britain, Germany and the United States in different years, and its empirical performance appears to be competitive with that of other existing distributions.     

Expectations, learning and macroeconomic persistence

Monetary DGSE models under rational expectations typically require large degrees of features as habit formation in consumption and inflation indexation to match the inertia of macroeconomic variables.This paper presents an estimated model that departs from rational expectations and nests learning by economic agents, habits, and indexation. Bayesian methods facilitate the joint estimation of the learning gain coefficient together with the ‘deep’ parameters of the economy.The empirical results show that when learning replaces rational expectations, the estimated degrees of habits and indexation drop closer to zero, suggesting that persistence arises in the model economy mainly from expectations and learning.     

The price of gold and the exchange rate

This paper examines the theoretical relationship between the major exchange rates and the prices of internationally-traded commodities. In the empirical section, the case of gold is analyzed using forecast error data. Among other things, it is found that, since the dissolution of the Bretton Woods International monetary system, floating exchange rates among the major currencies have been a major source of price instability in the world gold market and, as the world gold market is dominated by the European currency bloc, appreciations or depreciations of European currencies have strong effects on the price of gold in other currencies.     

'Young In,Old Out' Revisited: New Patterns of Employment Replacement in the Italian Economy

This paper, based largely on data from the Italian social security (INPS) records, shows that recent employment trends in Italy have been marked by large job and worker turnover and a new and strong process of renewal and substitution of labour in industry. Entries of young workers have shown a remarkable increase, mainly through the application of work and training contracts ('contratti di formazione e lavoro') that provide firms with a means to cut labour costs. Meanwhile many workers in their 40s with considerable seniority, but still perfectly fit to go on working, found themselves squeezed out. The exit of this generation of mature workers was eased through subsidised early retirement, golden handshakes and a wide application of the 'cassa integrazione guadagni' (wage supplementation fund). This pattern of labour force replacement in industrial production, described as 'young in, old out', is at odds with the frequent ranking of Italy among the industrial countries hampered by rigid labour markets and questions theories of unemployment based on 'insider-outsider' hypotheses.     

Homothetic preferences on star-shaped sets

This paper describes properties of homothetic preferences on a subset X of a vector space which is star-shaped with respect to 0 (e.g., a cone). We prove that a preference relation on X is homothetic, greedy and calibrated if and only if there exists a positively homogeneous function that represents it. This function is unique up to a strictly increasing and positively homogeneous transformation. As a corollary, we find that, if X is contained in a topological vector space, then œ is homothetic and continuous if and only if there exists a positively homogeneous and continuous function that represents it.     

Design of the optimal feeding policy in an assembly system

This paper describes an innovative and integrated approach to component management optimization within a production/assembly system. In a mixed-models assembly process the handling of parts and components for each work station represents a substantial variable that can greatly affect job duration and efficiency. This paper is strictly related to Assembly to Order/Manufacturing to Order (ATO and MTO) systems, where lead time has to be very short and flexibility is at its maximum level. In Assembly to Order (ATO) or Make to Order (MTO) systems, the production is increasingly getting more customized in response to the demand, thanks to the progresses reached in both manufacturing and information technologies. It is becoming increasingly possible to assemble or make products specifically in response to the requests of either end customers or retailers. As a consequence of such customization, the design of the whole system must take into direct account several elements: parts warehouses location, feeding policies and feeding systems. In some cases the collection of parts and components required picking activities, in other the movement of entire units load.In several instances experts have analyzed the problems about material centralization/decentralization, storage policies and assembly feeding problem in different and independent ways, while the problem needs an integrated approach. While many researches regarding components allocation problems in ATO and MTO systems, did not consider feeding policies, material picking, packing activities and vehicles optimization, this paper cover focuses on filling such gap using an integrated framework that considers both aspects of the problem: the centralization/decentralization of components in order to minimize the total storage costs and the right feeding policies.Feeding problems in assembly lines are some of the most important aspects to consider during the analysis and design of an assembly system, to allow the maximization of efficiency and flexibility. To reach such goals, a multi-factorial analysis has been carried out during this experiment and will validate the introduced framework. An industrial application of the introduced framework is illustrated to explain its real significant production implication.     

Monetary and fiscal policy interactions in the EMU when cyclical conditions are uncertain

This paper examines economic policy interactions in the Economic and Monetary Union when the assessment of cyclical conditions in real time is surrounded by uncertainty. On the basis of a simple stylised model it shows that with a Nash-type of interaction different views about the output gap on the side of the policy players—the Council of the European Union, the European Commission and the European Central Bank—can give rise to excessive activism with policy players pushing economic variables into opposite directions. It argues that the costs of such policy conflicts can be reduced by agreeing on a common assessment of the cycle, by constraining policy variables, and/or by increasing the weight of fiscally conservative institutions. An alternative option to sidestep policy conflicts ensuing from diverging views of the cycle is to take policy decisions sequentially, as is the case in a Stackelberg-type of interaction. The paper shows that for a given misperception of the cycle, the impact on the policy instruments and on output and inflation are generally smaller in the Stackelberg equilibrium as compared to a Nash outcome. Alternative allocations of roles—that is leader versus follower—are discussed and assessed.