Credit demand and supply shocks in Italy during the Great Recession

In this article, we use Structural VAR analysis to disentangle credit demand and supply shocks and their effect on real economic activity in Italy during the 2008 to 2014 crisis period. The three endogenous variables considered are the loan interest rate, the loans growth rate and the employment to population ratio. The data are observed at annual frequency for each of 103 Italian provinces. The empirical evidence suggests that the variance of the shocks varies across four Italian macro-regions: North, Centre, South and Islands, and hece heteroscedasticity is used to identify (ex ante) the structural shocks. Sign restrictions are used to interpret shocks ex post. The empirical findings suggest a prominent role of credit supply shock in shaping real activity dynamics and also that credit crunch hits the North of Italy less than the remaining macro-regions, especially the South of Italy.     

Education and health in Europe

The productive and allocative theories predict that education has positive impact on health: the more educated adopt healthier life styles and use more efficiently health inputs, and this explains why they live longer. We find partial support for these theories with an econometric analysis on a large sample of Europeans aged above 50 documenting a significant and positive correlation among education years, life styles, health outputs and functionalities. We however find confirmation for an anomaly already observed in the United States, namely the more educated are more likely to contract cancer. Our results are robust when controlling for endogeneity and reverse causality in IV estimates with instrumental variables related to quarter of birth and neighbours’ cultural norms.     

Online networks,social interaction and segregation: an evolutionary approach

There is growing evidence that face-to-face interaction is declining in many countries, exacerbating the phenomenon of social isolation. On the other hand, social interaction through online networking sites is steeply rising. To analyze these societal dynamics, we have built an evolutionary game model in which agents can choose between three strategies of social participation: 1) interaction via both online social networks and face-to-face encounters; 2) interaction by exclusive means of face-to-face encounters; 3) opting out from both forms of participation in pursuit of social isolation. We illustrate the dynamics of interaction among these three types of agent that the model predicts, in light of the empirical evidence provided by previous literature. We then assess their welfare implications. We show that when online interaction is less gratifying than offline encounters, the dynamics of agents’ rational choices of interaction will lead to the extinction of the sub-population of online networks users, thereby making Facebook and similar platforms disappear in the long run. Furthermore, we show that the higher the propensity for discrimination of those who interact via online social networks and via face-to-face encounters (i.e., their preference for the interaction with agents of their same type), the greater the probability will be that they all will end up choosing social isolation in the long run, making society fall into a “social poverty trap”.     

ICT diffusion in public administrations and business dynamics: Evidence from Italian municipalities

Public administrations have been adopting information and communication technologies (ICT) to transform their internal organization and provide better public services to citizens and firms. However, the external benefits, despite being deemed relevant, have been empirically overlooked. We first explore the relation between ICT diffusion in public administrations and business demography at the municipal level by studying the Italian context. Our results show that ICT diffusion in the PA contributes to significantly reducing the death rate of firms and boosting their turnover rate. The adoption of ICT in the PA also exerts a positive impact on the firm birth rate, although it is not statistically significant. These results shed light on the importance of promoting e-government and framing coherent digital agendas as public instruments for supporting entrepreneurship and regional economic development.     

Insurance fraud detection: A statistically validated network approach

Fraud is a social phenomenon, and fraudsters often collaborate with other fraudsters, taking on different roles. The challenge for insurance companies is to implement claim assessment and improve fraud detection accuracy. We developed an investigative system based on bipartite networks, highlighting the relationships between subjects and accidents or vehicles and accidents. We formalize filtering rules through probability models and test specific methods to assess the existence of communities in extensive networks and propose new alert metrics for suspicious structures. We apply the methodology to a real database—the Italian Antifraud Integrated Archive—and compare the results to out-of-sample fraud scams under investigation by the judicial authorities.     

When income differences hurt or excite: The nonlinear effect of regional inequality on subjective wellbeing

Combining information from the European Union Statistics on Income and Living Conditions and the European Social Survey, we investigate the relationship between subjective well-being and income inequality using regional inequality indicators and individual data. We assume that inequality aversion and perception of social mobility affect the impact of regional inequality on subjective well-being in opposite directions. We find evidence of an inverse U-shaped effect of inequality, where inequality starts to have a positive effect on subjective well-being that becomes negative with a switch point before the average of the Gini index for the entire sample. The rationale for our nonlinear finding is that Hirschman's tunnel effect (and the positive effect of perceived social mobility) prevails for low levels of inequality, while inequality aversion and negative relative income effects are relatively stronger when inequality is higher. Robustness checks on different sample splits are consistent with the hypothesis of the two drivers.     

Tax competition in the presence of environmental spillovers

International Tax and Public Finance - This paper examines the efficiency of destination-and origin-based consumption taxes, in the presence of consumption generated perfect cross-border pollution...     

Earnings losses of displaced workers in times of crisis

We utilize data from the 1979 National Longitudinal Survey of Youth and the Bureau of Labor Statistics to study how the earnings losses experienced by displaced workers vary in times of economic crisis. Relative to an economy that operates at full potential, our results show that a 1% increase in the real gross domestic product gap observed at the time of displacement is associated with an additional increase in the estimated earnings losses experienced by displaced workers of approximately 4.3% in the year immediately following displacement, and with similar increases in the estimated losses for up to 5 years after.     

Construction of voting situations concordant with ranking patterns

Decisions in Economics and Finance - Referring to a standard context of voting theory, and to the classic notion of voting situation, here we show that it is possible to observe any arbitrary set...     

Introduction to the special issue on the 24th annual Workshop on Economic science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents,London, 2019 (WEHIA 2019)

Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination -