Peginterferon beta-1a versus other self-injectable disease-modifying therapies in the treatment of relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis in Scotland: a cost-effectiveness analysis

Aims: Peginterferon beta-1a 125?mcg administered subcutaneously every 2 weeks, a new disease-modifying therapy (DMT) for relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis (RRMS), was approved in January 2015 by the Scottish Medicines Consortium. This study assesses long-term clinical and economic outcomes of peginterferon beta-1a compared with other self-injectable DMTs (interferon beta-1a [22?mcg, 30?mcg, and 44?mcg], interferon beta-1b, and glatiramer acetate 20?mg) in the treatment of RRMS, from the National Health Service and Personal Social Services perspective in Scotland.

Methods: A previously published, validated Markov cohort model was adapted for this analysis. The model estimates changes in patient disability, occurrence of relapses, and other adverse events, and translates them into quality-adjusted life years and costs. Natural history data came from the ADVANCE trial of peginterferon beta-1a, the London Ontario (Canada) database, and a large population-based MS survey in the UK. The comparative efficacy of each DMT vs placebo was obtained from a network meta-analysis. Costs (2015 British Pounds) were obtained from public databases and literature. Clinical and economic outcomes were projected over 30 years and discounted at 3.5% per year.

Results: Over 30 years, peginterferon beta-1a was dominant compared with interferon beta-1a (22, 30, and 44?mcg), and interferon beta-1b, and cost-effective compared with glatiramer acetate 20?mg. Results were most sensitive to variations in each DMT’s efficacy and acquisition costs. Deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses confirmed the robustness of the results.

Limitations: The impact of improved adherence with peginterferon beta-1a on clinical and economic outcomes and the impact of subsequent DMTs after treatment discontinuation were not considered. Oral and infused DMTs were not included as comparators.

Conclusion Long-term treatment with peginterferon beta-1a improves clinical outcomes, while its cost profile makes it either dominant or cost-effective compared with other self-injectable DMTs for the treatment of RRMS in Scotland.     

Risk management of precious metals

This paper examines volatility and correlation dynamics in price returns of gold, silver, platinum and palladium, and explores the corresponding risk management implications for market risk and hedging. Value-at-Risk (VaR) is used to analyze the downside market risk associated with investments in precious metals, and to design optimal risk management strategies. We compute the VaR for major precious metals using the calibrated RiskMetrics, different GARCH models, and the semi-parametric Filtered Historical Simulation approach. The best approach for estimating VaR based on conditional and unconditional statistical tests is documented. The economic importance of the results is highlighted by assessing the daily capital charges from the estimated VaRs.     

Modeling and forecasting trading volume index: GARCH versus TGARCH approach

Volatility has been described as an indicator of uncertainty which has implications for investment decisions, risk management as well as monetary policy. This paper investigates the pattern of volatility in the daily trading volume index of Hong Kong stock exchange. The empirical evidence provided in this paper suggests that TGARCH specification is superior to GARCH specification. This is particularly important when one is dealing with the case of asymmetric information that captures the leverage effect of the volatile stock market.     

Pollution,energy use,GDP and trade: estimating the long-run relationship for Vietnam

Since the beginning of economic reform in the 1980s and, in particular, with its openness to international trade accelerating since the 1990s, the Vietnamese economy has registered significant growth. At the same time, energy consumption and the level of pollution in Vietnam has also increased. This article aims to focus on the link between openness to trade and pollution in Vietnam. Due to lack of data, very few existing studies have focused on Vietnam. Using annual data from1980 to 2011 and employing the bounds testing approach to cointegration, based on an autoregressive distributed lagged (ARDL) model, we find that there is a statistically significant long-run relationship amongst pollution, openness to trade, energy consumption and real national income in Vietnam. This conclusion continues to hold when the possibility of a structural break in the relationship is allowed for using the Gregory-Hansen approach to cointegration. Analysis of the cointegration relationship suggests that, in response to any exogenous shock to the system, adjustment back to the long-run equilibrium is very fast.     

MAPPING THE EVOLUTION OF ENERGY‐GROWTH NEXUS: SYNERGIES AND TRADE‐OFFS

The study explores the intellectual structure, development and evolution of energy crisis and economic growth research through bibliometric analysis of research articles on energy‐growth nexus from 2000 to 2017 by using Citespace where Gephi is used to analyse the authors collaboration. The analysis incorporates 27,152 references cited by 344 authors, in 1165 articles and from 330 journals. The results of study quantitatively present the most cited articles, authors, countries, institutions and intellectual structure with data visualization in the knowledge domain of energy‐growth nexus. The study categorizes the major research areas in energy‐growth nexus research as carbon dioxide emission, electricity consumption, heterogeneous Panel, real income, renewable energy and financial development. The study discusses emerging trends which provide the future research fronts and intellectual development within the framework of energy‐growth nexus.     

Kraft's acquisition of Cadbury: Was it an amicable transatlantic merger or a hostile takeover?

This case‐based research evaluates and discusses Kraft's 2009–2010 acquisition of the UK‐based Cadbury, which turned into a bitter fight and a hostile takeover. As both firms have a rich history and distinct brand identities, the merger came to the attention of the global media and public on both sides of the Atlantic. Drawing on the merger's lengthy negotiations and the two companies' distinctive corporate cultures, this article analyzes the merger and its chaotic negotiations and developments. The merger was opposed in the United Kingdom because of Kraft's harsh approach of targeting an iconic British brand that had been in business for over 150 years. Eventually, both companies did compromise in an amicable manner and concluded a friendly tie‐up. The postmerger period reveals that Kraft's acquisition was a part of its future reorganization and expansion in global markets. This case‐based research also provides academic and practical implications for international business managers as well as multinational corporations.     

Does organisational capital influence environmental strategies? Evidence from environmental innovation

As a result of increasing consumer awareness and stakeholder demands about environmental management, firms face stricter challenges surrounding the impact of business operations on the environment. In this regards, environmental innovation is one of the important ways of acting in harmony with the environment. Thus, the purpose of this study is to examine the impact of organisational capital on environmental innovation measured as the process innovation and product innovation. Using environmental innovation data from ASSET4 for the US listed firms between 2002 and 2018, our empirical results reveal a significant positive association between organisational capital and both the process innovation and product innovation. Furthermore, the relationship is stronger in high-profitability and sensitive industries subsamples. These results are robust to additional control variables and endogeneity tests. This study, while endorsing the resource-based view (RBV), provides important implications for the top management teams that organisational capital could be an important channel through which managers can boost environmental innovation.     

Education stock and its implication for income inequality: The case of Asian economies

This study develops a quadratic relationship between education and income inequality among Asian developing economies for the period from 1960 to 2015. Panel cointegration and fully modified OLS is applied for the estimation of long‐run coefficients. The results show that initial, primary, secondary, and tertiary enrollment increases inequality. However, the effect of education on income inequality becomes negative after a certain threshold level (i.e., 97.5% for primary, 43.5% for secondary, and 11% for tertiary). Thus, this result proves the Kuznets phenomenon of an inverted U‐shape relationship for primary, secondary, and tertiary enrollments.     

Measuring volatility persistence in the presence of sudden changes in the variance of Canadian stock returns

Abstract.  It is well known that volatility persistence is overestimated if regime shifts are not accounted for in the standard GARCH model. This research detects time periods of sudden changes in variance using the iterated cumulated sums of squares (ICSS) algorithm. Using weekly data for the Canadian stock market indicates that after accounting for endogenously determined volatility shifts in the GARCH model, the estimated persistence in volatility is significantly reduced. This casts some doubt on previous findings that volatility in financial markets is highly persistent. The findings have important implications for investors and financial market participants. JEL classification: G1