Assessing and predicting financial vulnerability of Italian households: a micro-macro approach

In this study we develop a micro-founded model to analyse the economic-financial conditions of Italian households. Using household level data, we build an indicator to identify vulnerable households based on their budget constraint and the composition of their financial portfolio. Then, we calculate the impact of the predicted trends of macroeconomic variables on the indicator in order to monitor its evolution in the short term (2015–2017). The empirical analysis is based on the Survey of Household Income and Wealth of the Bank of Italy and on a set of macroeconomic forecasts. Our findings suggest that the macroeconomic scenario for the period 2015–2017 implies a progressive reduction in the percentage of vulnerable households for the full extent of the projection.     

Failures in Regulator-Led Deinstitutionalization of Questionable Business Practices

Prior works in institutional theory are characterized by an assumption that the legal basis for authority of regulatory agencies is sufficient to ensure compliance by business organizations. From a business ethics standpoint, this would imply that regulatory oversight can hinder organizations’ pursuit of questionable business practices. However, the evidence for regulatory efficacy is far from clear as questionable business practices tend to persist despite regulatory monitoring. Drawing on the case of the regulatory failure to trigger a shift away from aggressive banking practices in Ireland, which had serious social and economic costs, we highlight three barriers to deinstitutionalization: (1) insufficient advocacy for change coupled with an inability to problematize the risks of extant business practices, (2) unwillingness to impose change through the use of threats, power, or sanctions, and (3) contradictions in the institutional environment that can obfuscate the regulators’ message. Thus, our study proposes that regulator-led change might not be as straightforward as previously theorized. In doing so, it advances prior theory through an explicit focus on the importance of three types of institutional work that are necessary for regulator-led deinstitutionalization.     

Trade and Labour Market Adjustments: What Role for the European Globalisation Adjustment Fund?

Trade agreements have become a growing source of concern due to the potential job losses that some sectors can incur as a result of increased competition. Although the economic literature shows that the overall results of trade liberalisation are positive, some sectors may be adversely affected, leading to job losses and adjustment costs. In 2006 the European Commission established the European Globalisation Adjustment Fund (EGF) to help workers who have lost their jobs due to globalisation. Despite the relevance of the EGF as a trade-adjustment mechanism, the existing evidence suggests that its use is still limited compared to its potential. This paper reviews some of the constraining factors identified in the latest mid-term evaluation by the European Commission and suggests several avenues for further improvement.     

Risk management and finance along value chains of Small Island Developing States. Evidence from the Caribbean and the Pacific

The paper analyses agricultural risks and risk management in selected Small Island Developing States which are part of the African Caribbean Pacific country group. Focus is on the value chains of fruits, vegetables and spices. A survey was conducted in Grenada, Jamaica, Fiji and Vanuatu, aimed at identifying sources of risk which are most important to value chain stakeholders; the nature and quality of existing and potential risk management mechanisms; and the possibility of enhancing them in view of improving the functioning of the value chains. The sample included farmers, processors, traders, retailers, extension agents, Government officials and private services providers. Results reveal limited ability to handle price and production variability, due to lack of both horizontal and vertical co-ordination along value chains, reduced use of support services, notably credit and underinvestment in equipment. In addition, lack of demand contributes to make insurance markets incomplete and characterised by undersupply or lack of customised products. Promoting light forms of vertical and horizontal co-ordination, such as production contracts and producers’ associations, as well as value chain-based credit and finance may address some of the issues highlighted.