绩效评估的研究取向概述

当前的绩效评估研究主要有三种主流取向,即个人差异观点、情景观点和绩效管理观点。这三种思路的关系并不是孤立的,它们之间存在着联系,实际应用过程中,往往是结合其中的两种甚至三种观点展开研究的。以后的研究中应该在组织绩效研究、绩效概念的科学界定、基于胜任特征的绩效研究、以及结合平衡记分卡的绩效研究等方面继续展开。     

Reconciling Gray and Hotelling

A bstract .   Early exhaustible resource economics provides an important foundation for recent suggestions that firm-level economic modeling plays a larger role in the analysis of resource scarcity. The lack of empirical support for Hotelling's r -percent rule, introduced in 1931, and recent suggestions that industry behavior may not be reducible to firm behaviors are the primary motivating factors for examining the relative value of Gray's contribution to the field of exhaustible resource economics relative to Hotelling's contribution. Specifically, Gray's papers that appeared in the 1910s provide insight into the heterogeneity of deposits and their spatial dimensions, and offer the possibility that firms will be subject to fixed costs carried over between periods. In this paper, the arguments presented by Gray are formalized in a dynamic model, which allows the differences between Gray's and Hotelling's assumptions to be more fully explored. The results of the paper illustrate that by considering spatially identifiable heterogeneous deposits, fixed costs, and entry costs, in general Hotelling's r -percent rule is not a sufficient condition for firm-level decision making and that firms' extraction behavior cannot be linearly aggregated to describe industry behavior.     

Influences on software piracy: Evidence from the various United States

Examining socio-economic influences on software piracy in the United States, we find a negative relationship between software piracy and income, tax burdens, and economic freedom. A 1% increase in per-capita income correlates with a 0.25% reduction in piracy.     

Consumer Behavior, Public Policy, and Country-of-Origin Labeling

Recent work by agricultural economists has failed to adequately identify why consumers desire country-of-origin labeling, a key piece of information needed to determine whether a market-failure exists. This paper brings to the attention of agricultural economists a sizable body of literature on country-of-origin effects from the marketing and business disciplines. Based on this literature, we draw a distinction between several consumer motivations for origin labels and we identify which of these is cause for public policy. We propose several research questions that require answers if the consequences of country-of-origin labeling policy are to be fully understood.     

上市公司投资风险财务评价体系探析

本文在现有上市公司对外公布的财务比率指标框架的基础上,利用多元统计方法中的相关分析和主成分分析方法,筛选指标,构建一个精简的财务指标体系,供股票投资者参考。该指标体系包括4个模块:偿债能力、经营效率、盈利能力和成长能力,能较为全面地反映上市公司的信息。     

Exports and technology in manufacturing industry

Zusammenfassung Exporte und Technologie der Verarbeitenden Industrie. — Die Verfasser nehmen die Behandlung der Technologie in der modernen Au\enhandelstheorie kritisch unter die Lupe. Unter Anwendung einer dynamischen Perspektive liefern sie einige neue empirische Erkenntnisse über die Beziehung zwischen der technologischen Wettbewerbsf?higkeit eines Landes und seiner Exportleistung. Anhand von fünf Industriel?ndern (Deutschland, Japan, Frankreich, Schweden und den Niederlanden) wird gezeigt, da\ es in dieser Hinsicht betr?chtliche Unterschiede zwischen den L?ndern gibt. Diese Unterschiede k?nnen teilweise auf l?nderspezifische Entwicklungspfade und auf Unterschiede in der Industriestruktur zurückgeführt werden, aber nach Ansicht der Autoren k?nnten sie auch durch eine unterschiedliche nationale Technologiepolitik beeinflu\t worden sein.

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Résumé Les exportations et la technologie des industries manufacturières. Cette étude examine le traitement du facteur de technologie dans la théorie moderne du commerce international. En utilisant une perspective dynamique, les auteurs donnent quelque évidence nouvelle pour la relation entre la compétitivité technologique et la performance dans le commerce international. En considérant cinq pays industriels (R.F.A., le Japon, la France, la Suède, et les Pays Bas), il est évident qu’il y a des différences remarquables entre ces pays. On peut attribuer ces différences aux processus du développement spécifiques de ces pays et aux différences entre la structure industrielle de ces pays examinés. Mais d’après les auteurs, ces différences pourraient être influencées aussi par les différences entre la politique de la technologie de ces pays.

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Resurnen Exportaciones y tecnologia en la industria manufacturera. — Este trabajo estudia el trato del factor tecnologia en la teoria moderna del comercio. Utilizando un enfoque dinámico se presenta evidencia empirica nueva de la relation entre la competitividad technológica y la performance del comercio. Considerando los casos de cinco paises industrials (Alemania, Japon, Francia, Suecia y Holanda) se demuestra que existen notables diferencias entre los países en este aspecto. Si bien estas diferencias se pueden atribuir parcialmente a las trayectorias de desarrollo especificas de cada pais y a diferencias en la estructura industrial, se sugiere que también podrian ser influenciadas por las diferencias entre las politicas tecnológicas nacionales.

     

Development of agriculture in Ethiopia since the 1975 land reform

A stated objective of the Ethiopian Government since it came to power in 1975 has been to increase the production of crops for both domestic consumption and export. Consequently, a number of plans and programs have been proposed and implemented to bring about such development in Ethiopian agriculture. This paper mainly focuses 011 a macro review of the general course of Ethiopian agricultural development since the land reform of 1975. The food production in Ethiopia has lagged behind the population growth as evidenced by the gap between the growth rates of population (3%) and food production (1.8%) over the period from 1970 to 1983. Recently, this situation has, perhaps, further deteriorated. Seventy-one percent of the total land mass is estimated to be suitable for agriculture, but only about 19% is cultivated. This suggests an underutilisation of land. Moreover, Ethiopia has a persistent subsistence production problem in agriculture. Agricultural research and education which are essential to development have not been given due attention by the policy makers. As a result, the agricultural technologies used by farmers have changed little in this century. Moreover, small-scale farmers, although still the most potent economic force in the country, have not been given the incentives necessary to expand production, and currently receive less than adequate support from the central government. Some 85%, 50%, and 79% of total agricultural credit, fertiliser and improved seeds respectively go directly to socialist enterprises (state farms and producers' cooperatives) which, up to 1985, have jointly accounted for only 5% of the total cultivated land and 4% of the national crop production. The favouring of large-scale and capital-intensive state-owned farming enterprises with credit, subsidies, and fiscal incentives, while neglecting smallholders, has contributed to the stagnation of agricultural production in Ethiopia. Overall, the analysis indicates that there has been no significant development of agriculture in Ethiopia following the 1975 land reform.     

Results on the bias and inconsistency of ordinary least squares for the linear probability model

This note formalizes bias and inconsistency results for ordinary least squares (OLS) on the linear probability model and provides sufficient conditions for unbiasedness and consistency to hold. The conditions suggest that a “trimming estimator” may reduce OLS bias.     

Deterring nuclear weapons proliferation

In the wake of the dissolution of the Soviet Union and the end of the Cold War, the problem of nuclear proliferation has become one of the primary issues of strategic concern The proliferation problem is an old one, but the problem today is very different from that of even a few years ago. calling for new approaches. By considering demand and supply factors, the old approaches that rely on limits on the technology or supply appear inadequate in the current situation Rather, the best approaches today are those that influence demand, making it less attractive for nations to develop nuclear weapons. The constraints on the United States that inhibit it from using its nuclear weapons to threaten new nuclear states make both nuclear deterrence and guarantees to countries not acquiring such weapons ineffectual in preventing further proliferation. The use of conventional forces to prevent proliferation or to protect threatened nations may also be politically difficult unless there are clear national interests at stake.
A possible way out of this dilemma is to develop a system of conventional deterrence using precision guided munitions and other recent technological developments that have increased the accuracy of weapons delivery systems. Such a system of conventional deterrence could play an important role in making nuclear weapons of less perceived value to potentially proliferating nations and in protecting regions that these nations threaten.