风险与机遇苏拉纺织机械集团国际业务总监安歌华专访

"WTO关于纺织品与服装协议(多国纤维协定)的中止导致了世界纺织品市场巨大的不稳定性,这一市场动荡已在2004年下半年和2005年上半年显露出来,但已逐渐平息.另一方面,纺织产业仍然存在很多闲置的产能,特别是在中国,近年来扩建的产能仍有部分搁置.虽然苏拉的机械传送部门由于强大的市场需求在赢利,但却不能完全抵消我们纺织部门的市场疲软造成的亏损."这段话摘自苏拉集团2005年7月26日题为<充满信心地返回纺织市场-传送系统的需求活跃-盈利归功于TEMPUS项目的实施>的股东年报,由此可以看出,中欧、中美纺织品贸易摩擦不仅给中国纺织企业带来了不利影响,也给外资在华纺织投资企业带来了不利影响.但是,最近苏拉集团基于对中国的市场分析和判断,进一步加大了对华投资.这种矛盾做法让业内人士有了些许疑惑.9月初,恰逢苏拉纺织机械集团国际业务总监安歌华(Andreas Engelhardt)来京进行商务活动,本刊记者就相关话题对他进行了专访.     

An estimation of the pattern of diffusion of mobile phones: The case of Colombia

This paper examines the diffusion pattern of mobile telephony in Colombia. The empirical modelling approach adopted in the paper starts off by choosing between the two functional forms that are most frequently used in the literature, namely the Gompertz and the Logistic models. After applying a formal statistical test to choose the preferred functional form, the evidence suggests that the pattern of diffusion can be best characterised as following a Logistic model. The findings also suggest that despite the fact that in recent years the rate of growth of mobile phone subscribers has started to slow down, there still appears to be room for further expansion as the saturation level is expected to be reached in 2013. The estimated saturation level is consistent with some individuals possessing more than one mobile device.     

Foreign players,team production,and technical efficiency: Evidence from European soccer

As on-field success is nowadays the main objective of European soccer clubs, good management needs to extract the highest sport success from the squad talent at hand. Because teams differ in their quality, performance needs to be compared with the best practice of comparable units. One remarkable source of heterogeneity across teams is the squad composition, which can produce gains from diversity together with communication costs. The paper studies the efficiency in sporting performance of soccer teams, paying attention to how the number of foreign players relates to productive inefficiency. Using data for 146 teams in the top 5 European leagues during 10 seasons, we estimate a double heteroskedastic True Random Effects Stochastic Frontier team production function. We find that (i) the number of passes, ball recoveries, and shots from the penalty area improve team efficiency, and (ii) a higher number of foreign players increase inefficiency. Our findings suggest that gains from squad diversity might be offset by communication costs.     

制度视角下保险市场秩序问题研究

本文从经济体制转轨背景下的主体行为冲突、"粗放"运作机制中的发展质与量冲突和制度体系中正式规则、非正式约束及其实施三方面对保险市场问题产生原因、机理进行了分析.以此为背景,讨论了制度冲突条件下影响监管效能的相关因素.针对问题成因和机理,提出规范市场的思路:一方面,逐步将法律法规、监管政策嵌入市场运行规则、公司内部制度,...     

Collateral in Monetary Policy Operations

We present a portfolio decision model for banks that permits us to estimate the costs associated with the need to collateralise loans from the central bank. This allows us to calibrate the difference between a restrictive collateral eligibility framework for open market operations, such as that applied by the FED, with a more flexible approach such as that of Eurosystem. We also document that there could potentially appear relevant cost differences between the various collateral mobilisation procedures (pooling and earmarking) that currently coexist in the eurozone.     

大力发展商品期货对我国经济体系的战略意义

我国的期货市场经过十几年的发展,依然存在着多方面的问题.本文分析了期货商品所具有的量大、金融性强等属性及其在经济体系巾的地位,进一步分析指出,大力发展商品期货对我国经济体系具有提高市场效率、保证经济体系平稳运行、提高我同市场在资源类商品定价话语权、提高实体经济与虚拟经济的融合为宏观政策提供良好的政策环境等影响深远的战略意义.最后对如何发展商品期货提出了四个方面的建议.     

Estimation of poverty measures with auxiliary information in sample surveys

The analysis of poverty measures has been receiving increased attention in recent years. This paper contributes to the literature by developing percentile ratio estimators based on the pseudo empirical likelihood method. In practice, variances of poverty measures could be not expressible by simple formulae and consequently other techniques should be used in the variance estimation stage. Assuming percentile ratios, resampling techniques are investigated in this paper. A numerical example based on data from the Spanish Household Panel Survey is taken up to illustrate how suggested procedures can perform better than existing ones. The effect of a model-misspecification on the proposed estimators is also evaluated by using simulated populations.     

德国专业化创业服务对我国的若干启示——以柏林经济技术促进机构柏林伙伴组织（BPBT）为例

柏林经济技术促进机构柏林伙伴组织是德国创业服务平台的成功典范,通过提供选址、创新、金融、人才以及国际化发展等专业化服务,加速企业创立、创新和壮大的过程,促进了柏林经济社会的发展。通过文献梳理,提炼其成功经验,提出要将专业化服务本身视作一种创新和创业,专业化服务应体现强大的战略判断能力、专注度和预见性,持续链接更广阔和更高价值的资源,形成更具普遍性的创业文化等若干观点。     

Reopening the convergence debate: A new look at cross-country growth empirics

There are two sources of inconsistency in existing cross-country empirical work on growth: correlated individual effects and endogenous explanatory variables. We estimate a variety of cross-country growth regressions using a generalized method of moments estimator that eliminates both problems. In one application, we find that per capita incomes converge to their steady-state levels at a rate of approximately 10 percent per year. This result stands in sharp contrast to the current consensus, which places the convergence rate at 2 percent. We discuss the theoretical implications of this finding. In another application, we perform a test of the Solow model. Again, contrary to prior reults, we reject both the standard and the augmented version of the model.     

质量管理体系运行中的问题及对策

执行ISO9000国际标准并进行质量体系认证审核对企业而言是非常重要的,它既是企业进入国际市场的通行证,同时也是企业内部管理及可持续发展的必然要求。为此,要首先了解企业面临的市场竞争形势以及质量管理体系运行中的问题,分析质量体系认证实施过程中产生这些问题的原因,再进一步提出了解决问题的对策。