Ex post adaptations and hybrid contracts in software development services

We follow the recent literature on ex post adaptations in procurement and argue that highly volatile specifications result in multiple variations of fixed price (FP) and time and materials (T&M) contracts. Specifically, placing a cap on specification change in FP contracts prevents specification volatility, similar to the way that placing a cap on the price in T&M contracts prevents price escalation. We argue that these hybrid mechanisms are particularly important in software development contracting, a new critical business capability involving frequent and costly ex post adaptations to specification change. The level of completeness in these contractual archetypes is hypothesized to be determined by contracting costs and benefits, where costs are related to project uncertainty and benefits are related to the likelihood of vendor opportunism. We test this hypothesis with a unique data set of 270 software development contracts entered into by a leading international bank. The analysis confirms the existence of multiple hybrid contracts that mitigate both price escalation and specification volatility. It also shows that contracting costs and benefits explain more variance in contract choice when these hybrids are included, uncovering the detailed mechanisms used to curb opportunism when the vendor is less familiar to the client.     

Exploring the worldwide patent surge

Worldwide patent filings are at historically unprecedented levels. In 2011, the total number of patent applications for the first time exceeded two million – double the approximately 1.05 million patents filed in 1995. Understanding what is behind this growth is important, as it may indicate faster technological progress, new innovation models and strategic shifts in how companies use the patent system. Policy-makers need to understand what drives the growth in patenting worldwide, not least to evaluate how the patent system can cope with the increasing flow of applications. A number of studies have looked at the growth in patent filings in individual countries, but have not focused on the world as a whole. This paper seeks to fill this gap by providing an analysis of global patenting trends using the most comprehensive data currently available. Among other things, it finds that subsequent patent filings – additional filings of the same invention, mostly in additional countries – contributed considerably to the growth in filings worldwide, pointing to globalization as one important driver of filing growth. However, no single factor can fully explain the marked increase in the use of the patent system.     

Free banking as an evolving system: The case of Switzerland reconsidered

Selgin and White (Economic Inquiry 25:439–457, 1987) argue that during its evolution a free banking system can be expected to reach certain stages of development. This paper uses their conceptual framework to investigate the free banking era in 19th century Switzerland and makes three contributions to the literature on free banking. First, I find that the development of the Swiss banking system closely matches the stylized evolutionary path depicted by Selgin and White. Second, I argue that after the introduction of the federal banknote law in 1882, the Swiss banking system can no longer be characterized as one of free banking. Third, I maintain that the evolutionary approach offered by Selgin and White opens the door to a better explanation of inter-bank note exchange complications during the 30 years preceding the introduction of a Swiss central bank in 1907 than alternative approaches.     

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Income-Related Biases in International Trade: What Do Trademark Registration Data Tell Us?

Rich countries trade more among themselves than with poor economies due to a closer match of exporter supply structures and importer preferences. In the literature, the closeness of supply and demand has traditionally been determined by the quality of products—as expressed in the Linder hypothesis. This paper examines an extension of the hypothesis by considering the extent of brand differentiation as another determinant of the closeness of supply and demand. The analysis employs information on international trademark registrations to test whether richer countries import more from countries exporting products of higher quality and greater brand differentiation. The hypothesis is confirmed in most consumer goods sectors. JEL no. F 10, O 34     

Expected Idiosyncratic Volatility Measures and Expected Returns

We find that idiosyncratic volatility forecasts using information available to traders at the time of the forecast are not related to expected returns. The positive relation documented in a number of other papers only exists when forward‐looking information is incorporated into the volatility estimate. That positive relation is driven by the realized idiosyncratic volatility component that cannot be forecasted by investors. Our findings are robust to several different empirical tests, volatility forecasting models and time periods.     

The Impact of Nobel Prize Winners in Economics: Mainline vs. Mainstream

We assess the impact of two groups of economists: mainline economists, who regard economics primarily as the science of exchange and mainstream economists, who perceive economics primarily as the science of choice. To control for scholarly quality we investigate the citation impact of Nobel Prize winning economists, who we break up into the two groups, mainline and mainstream. We find that over the period from 1970 to 2007 mainline economists had more of an impact than mainstream economists.