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11.
We analyse the state of the art in the field of life cycle portfolio choice, a recent strand of the literature on intertemporal
portfolio selection. Life cycle models are designed to identify optimal savings and portfolio policies over the lifetime of
investors. They can help to improve pension schemes by showing how these could be specifically tailored to the individual
employee’s circumstances to overcome the ‘one-size-fits-all’ philosophy still prevailing in parts of the mandatory retirement
savings system. To facilitate comparison, we first describe set-up, solution method and characteristic results for a basic
model and then derive a general framework to classify existing contributions. We highlight the models’ strengths and weaknesses
and assess their ability to resolve existing portfolio puzzles. Lessons from the literature are summarized and promising areas
for further research identified.
JEL classifications G11, D14, D91, H55 相似文献
12.
Pension Reform, Capital Markets and the Rate of Return 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Axel Börsch-Supan Florian Heiss Alexander Ludwig Joachim Winter 《The German Economic Review》2003,4(2):151-181
Abstract. This paper discusses the consequences of population aging and a fundamental pension reform – that is, a shift towards more pre‐funding – for capital markets in Germany. We use a stylized closed‐economy, overlapping‐generations model to compare the effects of the recent German pension reform with those of a more decisive reform that would freeze the current pay‐as‐you‐go contribution rate and thus result in a larger funded component of the pension system. We predict rates of return to capital under both reform scenarios over a long horizon, taking demographic projections as given. Our main finding is that the future decrease in the rate of return is much smaller than often claimed in the public debate. Our simulations show that the capital stock will decrease once the baby‐boom generations enter retirement, even if there were no fundamental pension reform. The corresponding decrease in the rate of return, the direct effect of population aging, is around 0.7 percentage points. While the capital market effects of the recent German pension reform are marginal, the rate of return to capital would decrease by an additional 0.5 percentage points under the more decisive reform proposal. 相似文献
13.
Ohne Zusammenfassung 相似文献
14.
Jeremy A. Klein Edward P. Stacey Christopher J. Coggill Mick McLean May I. Sagua 《R&D Management》1996,26(1):5-15
This study sought to measure the economic consequences of reduced expenditure on specific sections of the UK National Measurement System (NMS), part of the state-funded technological infrastructure. A method was developed which can be adapted to any publicly or privately financed R&D of which the benefits and cost-effectiveness are unclear or contested.
The recent interactions between the NMS and industry were investigated empirically. Five mechanisms were found to account for the majority of instances of successful value creation. Several case studies of each mechanism were collected, illustrating their existence beyond reasonable doubt.
Each of the cut projects would have been expected to have encouraged growth and profitability in identified sectors of the economy through one or more of these five mechanisms. The effects of the cuts were modelled over 30 years. Compared to the costs of the cut projects projected over the same period, the benefits to the economy were predicted to exceed the costs. 相似文献
The recent interactions between the NMS and industry were investigated empirically. Five mechanisms were found to account for the majority of instances of successful value creation. Several case studies of each mechanism were collected, illustrating their existence beyond reasonable doubt.
Each of the cut projects would have been expected to have encouraged growth and profitability in identified sectors of the economy through one or more of these five mechanisms. The effects of the cuts were modelled over 30 years. Compared to the costs of the cut projects projected over the same period, the benefits to the economy were predicted to exceed the costs. 相似文献
15.
This paper analyzes the importance of distinguishing between watch-preceded and direct rating changes for the credit default swap (CDS) market by examining a total of 2991 rating change announcements, 1526 watchlist placement announcements, and 430 rating affirmations following watchlist placements. The results show that watch-preceded downgrades do not lead to significant CDS market reactions, while direct downgrades are associated with a significant increase in CDS spread levels. Likewise, we document that watchlist placements for downgrade lead to increases in firms’ CDS spreads. CDS markets do not react to rating upgrades but watchlist placements for upgrade result in an immediate decrease in CDS spreads. Rating affirmations following watchlist placements for downgrade lead to slight reductions in CDS spreads, while affirmations following watchlist placements for upgrade have no effect on CDS spreads. These findings demonstrate the importance for empirical research on the interaction between credit markets and rating announcements to differentiate between watch-preceded and direct rating changes, particularly for rating downgrades. 相似文献
16.
In this paper, we empirically examine the systematic risk of corporate bonds in the Euro area. Based on a unique sample of 784 bonds from 1999 to 2010, we show that the systematic risk of constructed bond portfolios and individual bonds—measured against three different market indices—depends on credit quality, term risk, and index choice. A significant increase in systematic risk for lower-rated bonds is observed following the start of the financial crisis. In multi-factor models, bond portfolios load significantly on default and term risk, which are included as additional factors. Conducting Fama and MacBeth cross-sectional tests, we find that default and term risk are priced with economically relevant premiums that range from 0.35 to 0.62 % per month. Our results are robust to the inclusion of characteristics such as rating and time to maturity. 相似文献
17.
This article presents an analysis of occupational structure, a key component of the ‘Little Divergence’, in an eastern‐central European economy under the second serfdom, using data on 6,983 Bohemian villages in 1654. Non‐agricultural activity was lower than in western Europe, but varied positively with village size, pastoral agriculture, sub‐peasant strata, Jews, freemen, female headship, and mills, and negatively with arable agriculture and towns. It showed a curvilinear relationship with the ‘second serfdom’, as proxied by landlord presence on village holdings. Landlord presence in serf villages also reversed the positive effects of female headship and mills on non‐agricultural activities. Under the second serfdom, landlords encouraged serf activities from which they could extract rents, while stifling others which threatened manorial interests. 相似文献
18.
We study the impact of social learning on the depth of reasoning in an experimental beauty‐contest game. Naive advice and observation of others' decisions as two forms of social learning trigger faster convergence to the equilibrium. We find that subjects who receive advice outperform uninformed subjects permanently, whereas subjects who observe others' past behavior before making their decision only have a temporary advantage over uninformed subjects. A series of control‐treatments and simulations indicate that the latter result is due to subjects failing to make the most out of observing others. 相似文献
19.
Hendrik Kaufmann Florian Heinen Philipp Sibbertsen 《Journal of Applied Econometrics》2014,29(5):758-773
In this paper we offer a bootstrap‐based version of the Cox specification test for non‐nested hypothesis to discriminate between ESTAR and MSAR models. Both models are commonly used for modeling real exchange rates dynamics. We show that the test has good size and power properties in finite samples. In an application, we analyze several major real exchange rates to shed light on the question of which model describes these processes best. This allows us to draw conclusions about the driving forces of real exchange rates. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
20.
Policies to reduce aggressive tax avoidance are increasingly being implemented or discussed in many countries around the world. Tax authorities hope that such policies will generate new tax revenue by increasing overall tax compliance. We present an experimental design to investigate the effect of a stylized anti-avoidance tax policy on tax compliance behavior. We highlight that anti-avoidance tax policies that reduce tax avoidance can also induce an increase in tax evasion (“substitution effect”), which limits the additional tax revenue these policies will generate. We show that the degree of substitution depends crucially on behavioral factors such as tax morale. Policymakers therefore also need to consider behavioral features while designing such policies and estimating their potential effects. 相似文献