Insights on CFOs’ Perceptions about Impairment Testing Under IAS 36

We survey CFOs of Italian listed companies and examine their views on the complexities involved in implementing IAS 36 requirements and the perceived usefulness of national guidelines aiming at assisting preparers in this respect. We find that IAS 36 is perceived as an atypical standard among IFRS, it demands subjective interpretation, its requirements can be made adaptable to managerial needs and do not limit creative accounting. Further, respondents do not see a strong link between IAS 36 disclosure requirements and market variables, except for stock returns. Moreover, the impairment testing process became more difficult during the recent financial crisis and guidelines issued by the Italian authorities do not appear to assist in implementing the recoverable amount estimation process or compliance with mandatory disclosure. The respondents explicitly call for a revision in IAS 36 and/or issuance of separate guidance. These findings inter alia respond directly to the IASB’s current quest on financial statements preparers’ concerns about the application of the IAS 36 requirements.     

Central Bank Independence and Budget Constraints for a Stable Euro

This paper looks at what economic theory and empirical evidence have to offer about the institutional conditions that are most likely to lead to a stable currency. Both theory and evidence suggest that an independent central bank with the explicit mandate to pursue price stability provides an effective solution to the time-inconsistency problem. The EMU institutional set-up is well-equipped to support a stability-oriented monetary policy. The ECB appears to be the most independent central bank in the world. An added protection of monetary policy from the influence of unsound budgetary policies enhances the prospects of price stability. The Maastricht Treaty and the Pact for Stability and Growth provide effective constraints against excessive deficits and encourage an environment of balanced budgets. The argument that both strong institutional arrangements and sound economic policy-making stem from a conservative attitude of the public is not dismissed altogether in this paper. We note, however, that this hypothesis is not formulated in a testable form and has ambiguous practical consequences. The hypothesis, nonetheless, serves as a useful reminder that the ECB should endeavor to draw its legitimacy not only from the text of the Treaty, but also from society as a whole.     

The Effects of the European Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) on National Fiscal Sustainability

This paper presents a methodology to analyze the responsiveness of fiscal sustainability to the endogenous fiscal discipline that will be strengthened by the EMU. This discipline arises in response to the harmonization of tax systems, the loss of control of current and prospective money financing, and the deepening of financial market-based discipline. The model developed in this paper is a generalization of Blanchard's 1984 model, in which the interest rate is determined endogenously. This provides the framework to analyze more features of the linkage between sustainability and endogenous fiscal discipline. This paper also presents a new intratemporal fiscal sustainability index.     

Real rigidities, productivity improvements and investment dynamics

The theoretical literature on business cycles predicts a positive investment response to productivity improvements, a prediction we question from theoretical and empirical perspectives. We show that a short-term negative response of investment to a positive technology shock is consistent with a reasonably parameterized new Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model in which firm-specific capital introduces an additional real rigidity, and monetary policy is not fully accommodative. Employing Bayesian techniques, we provide evidence that permanent productivity improvements have short-term, contractionary effects on investment. Although this result can be obtained from both firm-specific and rental capital models, only in the case of the former is the average price duration in line with the microeconometric evidence.     

Knowledge characteristics and the dynamics of technological alliances in pharmaceuticals: empirical evidence from Europe,US and Japan

The paper investigates the co-evolutionary patterns of the dynamics of technological alliances and of the structure of the knowledge base in the pharmaceutical sector. The main hypothesis under scrutiny is that technological alliances represent a key resource for firms in knowledge intensive sectors to cope with dramatic changes in the knowledge base, marked by the introduction of discontinuities opening up new technological trajectories. Using patent information and data on technological alliances drawn from the CATI-MERIT database, we compare the evidence concerning the so-called triad regions, i.e. United States, Europe and Japan. The empirical results support the existence of a life cycle in biotechnology affecting the pharmaceutical industry. Furthermore, the dynamics of alliances is found to depend on (i) the phase of the biotechnology life cycle, (ii) the strength of the region in biotechnology and (iii) the general features of the economic environment of the region.     

Labor market reform and price stability: An application to the Euro Area

Central bankers frequently suggest that labor market reform may be beneficial for inflation management. This paper investigates this topic by simulating the effects of reductions in firing costs and unemployment benefits on inflation volatility in the Euro Area, using an estimated New Keynesian model with search and matching frictions. Qualitatively, changes in labor market policies alter the volatility of inflation in response to shocks, by affecting the volatility of the three components of real marginal costs (hiring costs, firing costs and wage costs). Quantitatively, we find, however, that neither policy is likely to have an important effect on inflation volatility, due to the small contribution of hiring and firing costs to inflation dynamics.     

The great moderation of the term structure of UK interest rates

The conduct of monetary policy, the term structure of interest rates and the structure of the economy in the UK have changed over the post-WWII period. We model the interaction between the macroeconomy and financial markets using a time-varying VAR augmented with the factors from the yield curve. There is evidence of a great moderation in the dynamics of the yield curve, with the factors being persistent and volatile before the introduction of inflation targeting in 1992 but becoming stable afterwards. The introduction of time-variation in the Factor Augmented VAR improves the fit of the model and results in expectation hypothesis consistent yields that are close to actual yields, even at long maturities. Monetary policy shocks had a significant impact on the volatility of inflation, output and the policy rate over the pre-inflation targeting era, but their contribution has been negligible under the current regime. Shocks to the level of the yield curve accounted for a large fraction of inflation variability only before 1992.     

Technological change and the households’ demand for currency

It is shown that accounting for technology variations, across households and periods, is important to obtain theoretically consistent estimates of the demand for currency. An inventory model is presented where the withdrawal technology is explicitly modeled. Both the level and the interest rate elasticity of cash holdings depend on the withdrawal technology available to households. Empirical proxies for the household withdrawal technology, based on the diffusion of cash withdrawal points measured at city level, are used to test the model predictions on a panel of Italian household data over the 1993-2004 period.     

Learning about beta: Time-varying factor loadings, expected returns, and the conditional CAPM

We amend the conditional CAPM to allow for unobservable long-run changes in risk factor loadings. In this environment, investors rationally “learn” the long-run level of factor loadings from the observation of realized returns. As a consequence of this assumption, we model conditional betas using the Kalman filter. Because of its focus on low-frequency variation in betas, our approach circumvents recent criticisms of the conditional CAPM. When tested on portfolios sorted by size and book-to-market, our learning-augmented conditional CAPM passes the specification tests.