A macro stress test model of credit risk for the Brazilian banking sector

This paper proposes a model to conduct macro stress test of credit risk for the banking sector based on scenario analysis. We employ an original bank-level data set that splits bank credit portfolios in 21 granular categories, covering household and corporate loans. The results corroborate the presence of a strong procyclical behavior of credit quality, and show a robust negative relationship between the logistic transformation of non-performing loans (NPLs) and GDP growth, with a lag response of up to three quarters. The results also indicate that the procyclical behavior of loan quality varies across credit types. This is novel in the literature and suggests that banks with larger exposures to highly procyclical credit types and economic sectors would tend to undergo sharper deterioration in the quality of their credit portfolios during an economic downturn. Lack of sufficient portfolio granularity in macro stress testing fails to capture these effects and thus introduces a source of bias that tends to underestimate the tail losses stemming from the riskier banks in a system.     

Estimating liquidity premia in the Spanish government securities market

This paper investigates the presence of liquidity premia in the relative pricing of assets traded on the Spanish government securities market. First, a classification of bonds into four different categories based on their degree of liquidity is proposed. Second, liquidity premia are estimated introducing liquidity parameters in the estimation of the zero-coupon yield curve. Results suggest the existence of a liquidity premium for post-benchmark bonds (both strippable and non-strippable). The size of this premium is relatively small. In the case of pre-benchmark bonds, the lack of liquidity does not seem to be priced. It is also shown that these pricing discrepancies are robust to the impact of taxes on bonds.     

International Financial Liberalization, Corruption, and Economic Growth

This paper examines the effects of capital account liberalization on the long-run growth of a developing economy. A general-equilibrium, endogenous growth model is constructed in which corruption forms an integral part of the governance system of the country. By undermining the profitability of innovations, corruption lowers the rate of return to capital and reduces the rate of technological change. The impact of international financial liberalization on long-run growth in this model can be either positive or negative. A drop in growth is obtained when the level of corruption is high enough to cause domestic rates of return to capital before liberalization to drop below those in the rest of the world. In this case, liberalization generates capital outflows, which act as a constraining force on innovation, reducing the rate of technological change and lowering output growth. On the other hand, if the level of corruption is sufficiently low, the capital account liberalization will serve as a boost to the country's technical change and growth.     

Political and Institutional Factors in Regime Changes in the ERM: An Application of Duration Analysis

This paper analyses the functioning of the European Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM). To that end, we apply duration models to estimate an augmented target‐zone model, explicitly incorporating political and institutional factors into the explanation of European exchange rate policies. The estimations are based on quarterly data of eight currencies participating in the ERM, covering the complete history of the European Monetary System. Our results suggest that both economic and political factors are important determinants of ERM currency policies. Concerning economic factors, the money supply, the real exchange rate, the interest rate in Germany and the central parity deviation would have negatively affected the duration of a given central parity, while credibility and the price level in Germany would have positively influenced such duration. Regarding political variables, elections, central bank independence and left‐wing administrations would have increased the probability of maintaining the current regime, while unstable governments would have been associated with more frequent regime changes. Moreover, we show how the political augmented model outperforms the model which just incorporates pure economic determinants, both in terms of explanatory power and goodness of fit.     

Too few dividends? Groups' tunneling through chair and board compensation

Group affiliation increases boards' compensation in countries as different as Korea, India, Hong Kong and Italy. In this paper, I examine a 6-year sample of controller-dominated, concentrated-ownership firms in Chile in search of a rationale for these results.I show that, for group-affiliated companies, controllers' presence on the board of directors is associated with a strong negative relation between chair and board compensation and controllers' cash-flow rights. Furthermore, I show that controllers of group-affiliated companies prefer to increase chair and board compensation rather than dividends as their cash-flow rights decrease.     

Relation between social-environmental responsibility and performance in hotel firms

In the present work we first theoretically contextualise the importance of social and environmental responsibility in the firm, at the same time analysing the relation between this variable and firm performance, for which the literature provides contradictory results. In the hotel sector this controversy is particularly relevant, given the intense relations and dependencies that this industry has with its environmental context. Subsequently, we conduct an empirical study centring on the Spanish hotel sector, whose findings point to a strong and positive relation between both variables.     

Intangibles Trade and MNEs: Supply-Chain Trade in R&D Services and Innovative Subsidiaries

This paper contributes to the literature on vertical specialization in R&D (or ‘R&D fragmentation’) and trade in intermediate services by examining the role of multinational enterprises (MNE) activities associated with bilateral foreign direct investment (FDI). Prior work in production networks (or global value chains [GVCs]) and R&D fragmentation suggests a complementarity relationship between FDI in R&D and technological knowledge flows. The paper examines this proposition empirically for R&D services trade by extending the gravity framework of supply-chain trade for intermediate services with bilateral MNE operations as economic mass variables. The results are partially consistent with the hypothesized complementarity. The econometric strategy accounts for zero trade observations. The latter addresses possible selection and consistency issues of traditional gravity trade specifications, and allows exploring extensive vs. intensive margin of trade. Understanding the role of MNEs in these transactions may be useful for policies aimed at increasing participation and upgrading in MNE-driven GVCs.     

A global approach to the analysis of user behavior in mobile payment systems in the new electronic environment

Mobile devices and social media have led to a profound revolution of modern society, obliging many companies to reorient their sales systems towards more successful commercial formats (mobile commerce and social commerce). The mobile payment, for instance, as an emerging and supplementary service to these new commercial formats, is now undergoing the adoption process. Mobile payment has long been discussed, but it has not yet reached the usage levels expected by the different mass market players (financial institutions, telephone operators, etc.) in Western societies. The purpose of this paper is to analyze users’ acceptance of mobile payment systems on social networks. In order to explain acceptance, we have integrated trust and perceived risk into the traditional TAM model. To complete this study, we have established the decisive factors of this payment system by analyzing user’s gender, age and experience level. The study was conducted through an online survey among a national panel composed by 2.012 social network users. The results of this research support previous studies and provide alternatives for companies to consolidate this new business model by means of the new technical developments.     

Innovation and service-dominant logic

Radical changes have occurred in innovation management. Traditional goods-dominant logic has shifted to service-dominant logic, where value is created for use instead of exchange. Customers are tied to organizations to co-create value. The focus of this special issue is on high quality, original, unpublished research, case studies, and implementation experiences. The issues are covered, including the collaborative workplaces for innovation in service companies, the financial crisis in hospitality industry, the role of quality management in innovation, and the value logic in service.