Libor Market Models versus Swap Market Models for Pricing Interest Rate Derivatives: An Empirical Analysis

We empirically compare Libor and Swap Market Models for thepricing of interest rate derivatives, using panel data on pricesof US caplets and swaptions. A Libor Market Model can directlybe calibrated to observed prices of caplets, whereas a SwapMarket Model is calibrated to a certain set of swaption prices.For both models we analyze how well they price caplets and swaptionsthat were not used for calibration. We show that the Libor MarketModel in general leads to better prediction of derivative pricesthat were not used for calibration than the Swap Market Model.Also, we find that Market Models with a declining volatilityfunction give much better pricing results than a specificationwith a constant volatility function. Finally, we find that modelsthat arechosen to exactly match certain derivative prices areoverfitted; more parsimonious models lead to better predictionsfor derivative prices that were not used for calibration. JELClassification: G12, G13, E43.     

Prostate cancer

Prostate cancer is the most common internal cancer in American males. There are many variables that effect prognosis, with the Gleason scoring system being one of the most important factors. There is controversy regarding the ideal treatment in various subsets of prostate cancer patients. Posttreatment prostate specific antigen values have prognostic significance.     

Computer Use and Productivity Growth in US Federal Government Agencies, 1987–92

We examine the impact of information technology (IT) on productivity in the public sector econometrically, using data from the BLS Federal Productivity Measurement Program and from Computer Intelligence Infocorp, and by interviewing some government officials. We estimate a production function for government services that includes IT capital as an input, and find a strong positive relationship across federal agencies between productivity growth and computer-intensity growth during the period 1987–92, controlling for growth in compensation and other outlays per employee, and in the number of employees. Our estimates are consistent with the hypothesis that there are 'excess returns' to IT capital.     

Equilibrium dominance in experimental financial markets

We examine the predictive power of equilibrium dominance inexperimental markets where firms with investment opportunitieshave an informational advantage over potential investors andare permitted to purchase a money-burning signal. Equilibriumdominance often fails to predict well when a Pareto-superiorsequential equilibrium is also available. Instead, equilibriumselection appears to be related to the potential earnings ofa more valuable firm that can signal its type successfully bydefecting from the sequential equilibrium.     

Henry George's Theory of State's Agenda: The Origins of His Ideas on Economic Policy in Adam Smith's Moral Theory

Abstract . The tension between Henry George's reformism and his laissezfaire liberalism was resolved through a system of natural liberty George derived from the relation between Adam Smith's ethics and economics. Crucial for George's nonutilitarian philosophy of government was the interdependence between the moral sense (sympathy) and the prevailing socioeconomic order. In the appropriate institutional environment, the role of the government was diminished since the pervasive moral sense insured justice by monitoring the individual's pursuit of economic self-interest. In contrast, a defective socio economic order required government intervention. For example, land monopoly and the maldistribution of income undermined the role of sympathy, promoted excessive self interest and the breakdown of the system of natural liberty. Government action through the single tax eliminated the “fear of want,” restored an operative moral sense and guaranteed justice in society. Under these conditions, government can provide additional services for a growing society without being susceptible to “corrupt and tyrannous” behavior.     

The Integration of Mortgage and Capital Markets in Emerging Economies—Evidence from South Africa

Integration of the capital and mortgage markets is an important step in moving emerging countries toward full economic development. With data from South Africa, this research examines the incremental contribution of deregulation and the secondary mortgage market to the integration between the mortgage and capital markets. With deregulation occurring in the early 1980s, the results indicate that the two markets were fully integrated prior to 2001 when a secondary mortgage market was introduced in South Africa. However, we also find that the introduction of the secondary mortgage market has significantly reduced constraints on the supply of mortgage credit.     

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The Economics of Farm Fragmentation: Evidence from Ghana and Rwanda

Farm fragmentation, in which a household operates more thanone separate parcel of land, is a common phenomenon in Sub-SaharanAfrica. Concerned by the perceived costs of fragmented as opposedto consolidated holdings, several countries have implementedland consolidation programs. But these interventions overlookthe benefits that land fragmentation can offer farmers in managingrisk, in overcoming seasonal labor bottlenecks, and in bettermatching soil types with necessary food crops. This articleuses household data from Ghana and Rwanda to discuss the incidenceand causes of fragmentation. It then formally tests the relationbetween fragmentation and land productivity and risk reduction.The conclusion is that consolidation programs are unlikely tolead to significant increases in land productivity and may actuallymake farmers worse off. Policymakers should focus instead onreducing the root causes of fragmentation: inefficiencies inland, labor, credit, and food markets.