Leistungsbilanzungleichgewichte im Euroraum

The internal imbalances in the euro area are often cited as one of the main reasons for the crisis there. The surpluses, especially those of Germany, correspond to the deficits in the euro area problem countries — Greece, Italy, Ireland, Spain and Portugal. An analysis of the trade and services balances of the problem countries, however, shows that this was only true up to 2004. Since 2005 their deficits with the rest of the world have been bigger, especially with China. Now the imbalances with China, not Germany, are the main concern for euro area problem countries. The reasons for this development were the strong appreciation of the euro and the structure of the economies of the euro area problem countries, which brought them into direct competition with China. Revaluation of other currencies, especially the renminbi, would enable the euro area crisis countries to pursue growth-friendly fiscal consolidation in which stronger external demand replaces internal demand. This was how Germany consolidated its budget — lower fiscal deficits were compensated by external demand contributions. The problem countries could simultaneously shrink both their fiscal and external deficits. Internal devaluation through wage moderation, however, dampens domestic demand and is recessionary in the short term.     

The sky is the limit? The determinants and constraints of European airports commercial revenues

This study investigates the determinants of commercial and retail airport revenues from real estate operations. Aviation revenues per passenger are mainly determined by the national income per capita in the area where the airport is located, the percentage of leisure travelers and the size of the airport. Main drivers of commercial revenues per passenger include the number of passengers passing through the airport, the ratio of commercial to total revenues, national income, the share of domestic and leisure travelers and the number of flights. These results are in line with previous findings of a negative influence of business travelers on commercial revenues per passenger. We also find that a large amount of retail space per passenger is generally associated with lower commercial revenues per square meter confirming decreasing marginal revenue effects. Real estate revenues per passenger are positively associated with national income per capita at airport location, share of intra-EU passengers and percent delayed flights.     

Unemployment and Right‐wing Extremist Crime*

It is frequently argued that unemployment plays a crucial role in the occurrence of right‐wing extremist crimes (RECs). We test this hypothesis empirically using data from Germany. We find that right‐wing criminal activities occur more frequently when unemployment is high. The substantial difference in the numbers of RECs occurring in the East and West German states can mostly be attributed to differences in unemployment. This finding reinforces the importance of unemployment as an explanatory factor for RECs, and it questions explanations based solely on the different socialization in former communist East Germany and the liberal West German states.     

Consistent Planning Under Uncertain Lifetime

This paper considers the problem of intertemporal planning when changing tastes result in inconsistent plans. This problem has been considered in the literature under the assumption of a lifetime certainty. Some of the solutions proposed in the literature exhibit certain undesirable properties such as incoherence and lack of Pareto-optimality. This paper proposes a procedure for solving the intertemporal dilemma when lifetime is uncertain. The proposed solution is coherent and Pareto-optimal, and is, in fact, valid for the case of certain as well as uncertain lifetime. [020]     

An Alternative Business Cycle Dating Procedure for South Africa

This paper applies a factor‐augmented Markov‐switching model to the South African economy to provide an alternative classification of the business cycle and its turning points. In the principal components step, 123 variables are used to establish the aggregate cyclicality in all sectors of the economy with the number of factors chosen using a modified Bai and Ng method. By exploiting the rich nature of the dataset, we provide a model with well‐defined statistical properties that compares favourably with the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) dating points. Combining the results of the parametric approach followed in the Markov‐switching model and the non‐parametric approach followed by the SARB should allow for a robust turning point analysis. A Markov‐switching model of real gross domestic product is also estimated because this variable is commonly used in the literature and provides a benchmark for the factor models.     

The brand anchoring effect: A judgment bias resulting from brand awareness and temporary accessibility

Following the Selective Activation, Reconstruction, and Anchoring (SARA) and consumer‐based brand equity models, high awareness brands are expected to serve as anchors for forming impressions of co‐branded entities. Comparing the brand personality profiles of fictitious brand alliances with high and low awareness brands, the brand anchoring effect is found in Studies 1 and 2. Moreover, Study 3 shows that the effect generalizes to specific brand characteristics and results from making brand‐related information more available. Future research on brand awareness and on the brand anchoring effect is discussed. © 2009 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

“Wilderness” – A designation for Central European landscapes?

The concept of “wilderness” has been intensively discussed as an approach for nature protection in Central Europe among managers of protected areas, decision makers, natural and social scientists. This paper discusses the various attempts for physical definitions for Central Europe. It examines, if “wilderness” a suitable expression for communicating different types of places designated “wilderness”, especially in the context of rising awareness and acceptance in all parts of society of the demands of the national strategies for protecting biodiversity. Literature surveys were carried out in order to find expert quotes on the physical definitions, spatial characteristics, and attributes of “wilderness”. For the analytical perception of the general public, a survey using opinion polls among visitors in the Müritz National Park in north-eastern Germany was carried out. A quantitative approach was chosen, and interviewees were selected on an objective, systematic basis. The paper demonstrates, that the wilderness discussion among experts in Central Europe lacks a common physical and spatial definition. It can be shown that there are strong ethical and religious, educational and cultural motifs in the demand for wilderness. For a broad range of laypersons interviewed in Müritz National Park, “wilderness” seems to be a suitable, positive label for wetlands, shorelines, large forests and remote mountain areas. Important key factors, aside from natural features, are few human traces, little infrastructure and few persons using an area, so that visitors experience a feeling of solitude.     

New Frontiers in Tourist Behavior Research: Steps toward Causal Inference from Non-experimental Data

Over the last two decades the range of methods for analyzing causal relationships has been significantly extended. New approaches to the theory of causality rely on the concept of “intervention” instead of “association”. Under an axiomatic framework they elaborate the conditions for safe causal inference from non-experimental data. Inferred Causation (IC) Theory combines elements of graph theory, statistics, logic and artificial intelligence research in computer science. It is not limited to parametric models in need of quantitative (ratio or interval scaled) data, but also operates much more generally on the observed conditional independence relationships among a set of qualitative (categorical) observations. Causal inferences do not appear to be restricted to experimental data. This is particularly promising for research domains such as consumer or tourist behavior where data from controlled experiments on real markets are rare. A case example highlights the potential use of Inferred Causation methodology in tourism research. It aims at measuring the direct and indirect influences of destination loyalty, perceived service quality and satisfaction on the tourist's intention to repeat visit.