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The betting market for the NHL is investigated using actual betting percentages on favorites and underdogs from real sportsbooks.
Sportsbooks do not appear to attempt to price to balance the book as betting percentages are not proportional to set odds.
As in the NFL and NBA, bettors are shown to have a strong preference for favorites and road favorites in particular. Simple
strategies of betting against significant imbalances toward the favorite are shown to generate positive returns. Although
not pricing to balance the book, sportsbooks do not appear to price to exploit known bettor biases in all cases. Clear bettor
behavioral biases for road favorites are not priced into the odds as the prices set in these cases appear to be a forecast
of game outcomes. Pricing as a forecast may ensure long-run viability for the sportsbook as it discourages entry into this
market by informed traders and still allows the sportsbook to capture its commission on losing bets over time. 相似文献
996.
Achim Himmelmann Dirk Schiereck Marc W. Simpson Moritz Zschoche 《Journal of Economics and Finance》2012,36(2):400-423
This study tests for underreaction and overreaction in European large cap markets by examining the abnormal returns of those
stocks in the EuroStoxx 50 Index following large price increases and decreases. We find that large price increases and declines
tend to be followed by average market returns. Thus, our results support the efficient market theory, rather than any of the
behaviour finance hypotheses. This insight is contrary to price patterns found in various national markets. 相似文献
997.
While quality control on multivariate and serially correlated processes has attracted research attentions, a number of very
detailed problems need to be overcome in order to construct practical control charts. We suggest guidelines for construction
of control charts based on vector autoregressive (VAR) residuals. We discuss why VAR model is reasonable for real processes
in nature, the use of VAR models to approximate multivariate serially correlated processes, residual estimation, selecting
the number of variables, and selecting appropriate orders, among other issues. In addition, we illustrate an example employing
VAR techniques to approximate a multivariate process previously examined and construct a control chart to monitor residuals.
Last, we illustrate the potential development and use of the VAR residual chart to assist quality control and improvement. 相似文献
998.
Posting,quoting, and replying: a comparison of methodological approaches to measure communication ties in web forums 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Active involvement in discussion-based communities is nowadays a firm part of people’s online activities. The measurement
of communication ties and networks between contributors to such domains is thus becoming a relevant research question in social
sciences. However, especially in web forums, very often almost no direct relational information exists that would indicate
the presence of communication ties among contributors. In contrast with the reply-to structure of Usenet newsgroup or mailing
list conversations that contain explicit relational information created by the contributors, some web forums only enable participants
to add new posts to threads or to quote preceding posts in threads. When discussions emerge, it is difficult to identify who
is replying to whom. Drawing on the social network studies dealing with the conversational patterns in Usenet and web forums,
this paper presents an alternative approach to identifying the ties between authors of posts. Several assumptions are discussed,
and different measures are developed and empirically evaluated. The findings provide a starting point for the development
of a standardized methodology for studying social networks in online communities where only limited direct information about
communication ties is available. 相似文献
999.
Katarina Elofsson 《Environmental and Resource Economics》2007,36(2):143-162
Unilateral abatement is sometimes advocated in order to set a good example that will make other countries follow. The aim
of this paper is to investigate whether existence of correlated cost uncertainty provides an incentive for a country to undertake
unilateral abatement. The theoretical model is driven by two main mechanisms; first, a learning effect, as the follower country
might reduce its risk premium as it can observe the cost level in the leader country. Second, there is the public good effect,
i.e., the marginal benefit of abatement declines when abatement is a public good and other countries contribute to pollution
reductions. Results shows that unilateral abatement would be efficient in reducing uncertainty about the unit costs of abatement
if a country with low cost uncertainty would undertake abatement first, while a country with initially high cost uncertainty
would follow. However, countries may prefer to act simultaneously because of the larger uncertainties that are inherent in
a sequential game.
相似文献
1000.
This paper considers the problem of a monopoly matchmaker that uses a schedule of entrance fees to sort different types of agents on the two sides of a matching market into exclusive meeting places, where agents randomly form pairwise matches. We make the standard assumption that the match value function exhibits complementarities, so that matching types at equal percentiles maximizes total match value and is efficient. We provide necessary conditions and sufficient conditions for the revenue-maximizing sorting to be efficient. These conditions require the match value function, modified to incorporate the incentive cost of eliciting private type information, to exhibit complementarities in types.JEL Clalssification Numbers C7, D4We thank Jonathan Levin, Tracy Lewis, and the seminar audience at University of California at Los Angeles, University of British Columbia, Duke University, and 2003 Econometric Society North American Summer Meeting for comments and suggestions. We are also grateful for helpful suggestions from the referees and the Editor 相似文献