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991.
Arman Bidarbakht Nia 《Empirical Economics》2017,52(1):393-410
Previous research shows that consumers’ response to price and income changes is heterogeneous. In addition, evidence from national data often does not support the classical assumption of one commodity-one price. This paper introduces a data coherent generalization to the quadratic form of the almost ideal demand system (g-QUAIDS) that incorporates the sources of heterogeneity in the demand function and allows for regional price variation. Aggregation over consumers imposes a linearization to the g-QUAIDS that requires a new set of price indices. The results from an empirical study by using microdata from the Household Income and Expenditure Survey of Iran highlight the impact of aggregation bias in relation to the level of aggregation. An investigation of the predictive power of linear versus nonlinear g-QUAIDS in different aggregation levels provides practical recommendations for consumer demand analysis. 相似文献
992.
Fabian Krüger 《Empirical Economics》2017,53(1):235-246
Ensemble methods can be used to construct a forecast distribution from a collection of point forecasts. They are used extensively in meteorology, but have received little direct attention in economics. In a real-time analysis of the ECB’s Survey of Professional Forecasters, we compare ensemble methods to histogram-based forecast distributions of GDP growth and inflation in the Euro Area. We find that ensembles perform very similarly to histograms, while being simpler to handle in practice. Given the wide availability of surveys that collect point forecasts but not histograms, these results suggest that ensembles deserve further investigation in economics. 相似文献
993.
A structural multivariate long memory model of the US gasoline market is employed to disentangle structural shocks and to estimate the own-price elasticity of gasoline demand. Our main empirical findings are: (1) there is strong evidence of nonstationarity and mean reversion in the real price of gasoline and in gasoline consumption; (2) accounting for the degree of persistence present in the data is essential to assess the responses of these two variables to structural shocks; (3) the contributions of the different supply and demand shocks to fluctuations in the gasoline market vary across frequency ranges; and (4) long memory makes available an interesting range of convergent possibilities for gasoline demand elasticities. Our estimates suggest that after a change in prices, consumers undertake a few measures to reduce consumption in the short- and medium-run but are reluctant to implement major changes in their consumption habits. 相似文献
994.
Kristian Jönsson 《Empirical Economics》2017,53(3):1243-1251
The current paper extends previous results on Hodrick–Prescott (HP) filtering and shows that it is possible to implement the judgement-augmented, or restricted, HP filter within the state-space framework. The implementation entails augmenting the vector of measurements and altering one of the system matrices of the state-space model for the HP filter. Restrictions can thereby be incorporated in the HP filter, making, e.g., estimation more accessible. An application to US GDP gap estimation illustrates how the restricted filter could be usefully applied in an empirical macroeconomic setting. 相似文献
995.
This paper addresses the evolution of cooperation in a multi-agent system with agents interacting heterogeneously with each other based on the iterated prisoner’s dilemma (IPD) game. The heterogeneity of interaction is defined in two models. First, agents in a network are restricted to interacting with only their neighbors (local interaction). Second, agents are allowed to adopt different IPD strategies against different opponents (discriminative interaction). These two heterogeneous interaction scenarios are different to the classical evolutionary game, in which each agent interacts with every other agent in the population by adopting the same strategy against all opponents. Moreover, agents adapt their risk attitudes while engaging in interactions. Agents with payoffs above (or below) their aspirations will become more risk averse (or risk seeking) in subsequent interactions, wherein risk is defined as the standard deviation of one-move payoffs in the IPD game. In simulation experiments with agents using only own historical payoffs as aspirations (historical comparison), we find that the whole population can achieve a high level of cooperation via the risk attitude adaptation mechanism, in the cases of either local or discriminative interaction models. Meanwhile, when agents use the population’s average payoff as aspirations (social comparison) for adapting risk attitudes, the high level of cooperation can only be sustained in a portion of the population (i.e., partial cooperation). This finding also holds true in both of the heterogeneous scenarios. Considering that payoffs cannot be precisely estimated in a realistic IPD game, simulation experiments are also conducted with a Gaussian disturbance added to the game payoffs. The results reveal that partial cooperation in the population under social comparison is more robust to the variation in payoffs than the global cooperation under historical comparison. 相似文献
996.
Fritz Breuss 《Empirica》2011,38(1):131-152
Inspired by Dornbusch’s model of exchange rate overshooting we develop a theory of stock market behaviour and its impact on
the real economy. The idea is that stock market prices overshoot and undershoot their long-run equilibrium values which are
determined by the development in the real economy. The overshooting is triggered primarily by a loose monetary policy. With
our model we explain the genesis of the global financial crisis (GFC) 2008/2009 primarily as the result of a loose monetary
policy in the USA. Following the overshooting and crash in the stock market the real economy dropped into a recession. After
modelling the interaction of three markets with different speed of adjustment—money, stocks and goods—for a closed economy
we expand it to an open economy and lastly study the spillovers of a financial market crisis between countries (from a large
to a small country) by introducing the transmission channels of external trade or cross-border financial transactions. A long-lasting
monetary easing as exhibiting by the Fed and the ECB since 2007 and 2008, respectively could—according to our model—generate
another boom-bust cycle. 相似文献
997.
Paul van den Noord 《Empirica》2011,38(1):19-51
The fiscal cost of the financial and economic crisis in Europe is huge. The paper provides provisional estimates of this cost
and looks at its implications for the sustainability of public finances, taking into account also the impact of aging populations.
The historical experience suggests that economic growth is persistently lowered in the aftermath of financial crisis, making
fiscal consolidation more difficult yet all the more essential. Meanwhile the timing of the exit from fiscal stimulus and
subsequent fiscal consolidation must reconcile sustainability and stabilisation goals—a delicate balancing act. The paper
will argue in favour of structural reform to boost the economic growth potential alongside fiscal consolidation. The fiscal
coordination framework in the EU, together with the Europe 2020 strategy, is seen to underpin this approach. 相似文献
998.
The purpose in this article is to evaluate the consistency between two measures of unemployment in a cross-country context.
We use the European Community Household Panel to identify unemployment at an individual level based as well on the ILO criteria
for being classified as unemployed as on the individual respondent reporting to be unemployed. This opens a unique opportunity
to compare unemployment measured in two different ways based on a cross European Union panel study covering the years 1994
to 2001. The two main questions addressed in this article are to which extent the two unemployment measures differ and whether
transition rates out of unemployment depend on which concept we use. Both questions are answered in the affirmative. The overall
conclusion is that it is important, especially in some of the EU countries, to include both measures of unemployment as guidelines
and indicators for policy. 相似文献
999.
This study investigates the increase in the labour force participation rate of women. We estimate a binary age–period–cohort
model for a sample of Dutch women born between 1925 and 1986. The results indicate that the increasing level of education
and the diminishing negative effect of children have played an important role. Moreover, we find important unobserved cohort
effects for pre-1955 generations, which is in line with results of studies on social norms. It is shown that the growth in
female participation is likely to slow down in the near future, as such cohort effects are not relevant for younger generations. 相似文献
1000.
The traditional way of assessing the impact of currency depreciation and income on the trade balance has been to estimate the elasticity of trade volume to relative prices and income. The previous studies examine the problems associated with using aggregate data. The recent studies rely on bilateral data, yet another problem is that data for export and import prices are not available. Thus, this study proposes an alternative way of assessing the impact of currency depreciation by using the real exchange rate and the impact of income on bilateral trade. The models are applied between the EU and its major trading partners. Furthermore, the analysis includes the six major trading regions along side the eight major trading countries for 1980–2007, on the quarterly basis. This article uses the autoregressive distributive lag (ARDL) approach advocated by Pesaran and Pesaran (1997). Our results indicate a higher importance of income compared to the real exchange rate in defined bilateral export and import demand functions. In addition, the applied CUSUM and CUSUMSQ stability tests confirm the stability of estimated coefficients in most cases. 相似文献