Tracking,tracing, and business process interests in food commodities: A multi-level decision complexity

The ability for tracking and tracing activities has become a common feature in supply chains not the least because of quality assurance and product liability considerations. Furthermore, food safety concerns have put tracking and tracing at the centre point of discussions on the development of a competitive and sustainable food production. However, in commodities and especially in food commodities, the establishment of tracking and tracing capabilities meets many barriers that have prevented their broad based use beyond what is legally required. Characteristics in the food sector as well as the nature of food commodity products may result in unfavourable cost–benefit considerations at enterprise levels. The view is different at sector and policy levels which creates a complex decision situation. The paper develops a suitable tracking and tracing process and decision model which also supports the understanding of the deadlock the sector is in. The decision situation for enterprises and the sector is summarized in a cost–benefit decision table that provides a framework for future developments.     

A general equilibrium evaluation of trade and industrial policy changes in Austria and Hungary

A General Equilibrium Evaluation of Trade and Industrial Policy Changes in Austria and Hungary. — Two linked static CGE models — based on 1990 data — are used to study effects of trade liberalization, problems of migration and changes in industrial policy in Austria and Hungary. The huge differences in factor endowment (Hungary is relatively labour abundant, Austria is relatively capital abundant) gives Hungary a strong competitive position in the production and export of lowwage products. Austria should have comparative advantages in products with high capital content when trading with Hungary. Although trade liberalization helps to improve welfare, much stronger effects follow from factor migration and capital accumulation through the transformation process in Hungary.     

Modeling Impact of Development Trajectories and a Global Agreement on Reducing Emissions from Deforestation on Congo Basin Forests by 2030

The Congo Basin encompasses the second largest rainforest area after the Amazon but the Congo Basin rainforest has been more preserved during the last decades with a much lower deforestation rate. At the same time, the region remains one of the least developed in the world. We use the partial equilibrium model GLOBIOM for the global agricultural, forestry and bioenergy sectors that seeks to find optimal land use options by spatially representing land qualities. We show the trade-offs between achieving agricultural growth at the expense of forests and protecting forests at the expense of agriculture development in the Congo Basin. The realization of the transportation infrastructures, which are already planned and funded, could multiply deforestation by three. In contrast, a global agreement on reduction of total emissions from deforestation could achieve important cuts in GHG emissions from deforestation in the Congo Basin. However, it could lead to substantial increases in food imports and food prices, which are in contradiction with the food security objectives.     

Ageing in Europe

For many people all over Europe, there is an understanding and an expectation that in old age they will be taken care of by the state. High social security contributions throughout the three or four decades of a working life are rationalised by the prospect of a straightforward transition out of the labour force when the time comes. While this was a reasonable expectation in decades past, a number of factors have combined to cause people all across the continent to feel very anxious about what awaits them once it is time to exit the labour force into retirement. The well-documented demographic transition of many rich European countries is a big factor, as greying populations start to weigh on the sparser younger generations, leading to increasing dependency ratios that would cause any social security system to buckle. The Great Recession has not helped matters, and the austerity measures still crippling many vulnerable European nations will not make anyone in these countries feel optimistic about their post-working lives. The following papers look at different threads of the new reality of ageing in Europe, from pension reform and prolonging the working life to more qualitative aspects such as an analysis of the quality of life of the elderly across Europe. They serve to inform and advise on an important issue that will affect everyone in Europe at some point in their lives.     

Using regression tree ensembles to model interaction effects: a graphical approach

Multiplicative interaction terms are widely used in economics to identify heterogeneous effects and to tailor policy recommendations. The execution of these models is often flawed due to specification and interpretation errors. This article introduces regression trees and regression tree ensembles to model and visualize interaction effects. Tree-based methods include interactions by construction and in a nonlinear manner. Visualizing nonlinear interaction effects in a way that can be easily read overcomes common interpretation errors. We apply the proposed approach to two different datasets to illustrate its usefulness.     

Consumer climate data in macroeconomic consumption functions

Zusammenfassung Die vorliegende Arbeit untersucht die Brauchbarkeit der IFES-Konsumentenbefragung für die Analyse des Konsumverhaltens in Österreich. Zu diesem Zweck wird geprüft, inwieweit die Verwendung von Daten aus Konsumentenbefragungen den Erklärungswert von Konsumfunktionen (für dauerhafte Konsumgüter) erhöhen können. Nach einer kritischen Würdigung der bisherigen Literatur zu diesem Thema werden sowohl in bekannten als auch in eigens dafür entwickelten Konsumfunktionen zusätzlich zu den üblichen erklärenden Variablen auch Variable miteinbezogen, die die Stimmung der Konsumenten widerspiegeln. Dadurch verbessern sich die Determinationskoeffizienten und die Standardfehler jedoch nur leicht. Stärker sind die Auswirkungen auf die zu schätzenden Parameter. Durch Berücksichtigung des Konsumklimas nehmen die Preis- und Einkommenselastizitäten plausiblere Werte an. Teilweise wird dadurch auch die Bedeutung des konstanten Gliedes und die Autokorrelation in den Residuen der Gleichungen verringert. Die Konsumklimavariablen dürften in den Konsumfunktionen die Rolle von Smart-dummy-Variablen spielen, die nicht nur die (aufgrund mehrfacher Änderungen der Mehrwertsteuersätze) häufigen Änderungen im Konsumentenverhalten signalisieren, sondern auch Verschiebungen in den Konsumentenpräferenzen widerspiegeln. Durch die Umwandlung qualitativer Aussagen (Konsumklimadaten) in quantitative wurde es möglich, Preissteigerungen in erwartete und unerwartete aufzuspalten und damit den Zinssatz theoriegerechter zu deflationieren. Erstmals ist es gelungen, die Keynessche Vermutung über die funktionale Abhängigkeit der Konsumneigung von psychologischen Faktoren mittels der Berücksichtigung von Konsumklimadaten in Konsumfunktionen zu bestätigen.

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List of variables (quarterly data) AN purchases of consumer goods: next year - AN _W share of those who want to buy less next year - CD consumer durables in real terms - D1 dummy for anticipation purchases - D2 dummy for purchase restraint; both (D1 andD2) caused by VAT changes - FIN financial situation of the own household: next year - FIN _B share of those who expect a better financial situation for the next year - GIG weighted Composite Leading Indicator 10, not trend and amplitude adjusted - GIU unweighted Composite Leading Indicator 10, not trend and amplitude adjusted - LD1 dummy for anticipation purchases 1977 - LD2 dummy for purchase restraint 1978; both (LD1 andLD2) due to luxury VAT increase in 1978 - LDX dummy for anticipation purchases, due to general VAT increases - PC actual deflator of private consumption - PCD relative price of consumer durables, standardized byYP - PCE expected deflator of private consumption - PCUE unexpected deflator of private consumption - PDH actual deflator of consumer durables - PDHE expected deflator of consumer durables - PDHR relative price of consumer durables - PDHUE unexpected deflator of consumer durables - RKEC real long-term interest rate (deflator of private consumption) - RKED real long-term interest rate (deflator of consumer durables) - RKEE expected long-term interest rate - Y disposable income in real terms - YP permanent real disposable income - YT transitory real disposable income