South Korea’s finance–growth nexus: evidence from VARX analysis with financial crisis and openness

South Korea’s finance–growth nexus is empirically investigated by taking the elements of financial crisis and trade and financial openness through the newly developed approach of vector error-correction models (ECMs) with weakly exogenous I(1) variables (VARX). Considering financial development as a more complex phenomenon, we take into estimation two aspects of financial deepening that are measured by its size (private credit to GDP) and efficiency (private credit to total domestic deposits). The main findings are (1) financial efficiency contributes to accelerating economic growth; (2) the causality between economic growth and financial size is bilateral and negative; and (3) financial crisis is negative to both economic growth and financial development, whereas the growth-promoting effects of trade and financial openness are confirmed.     

Japanese Companies in China: Problems of Human Resource Management

Much of China's recent economic growth has been driven by foreign funded enterprises (FFEs). They continue to invest heavily, making China the largest recipient of foreign direct investment (FDI) among all developing countries. Japanese firms have already shifted the focus of their FDI from the US to Asian countries, including China. However, there are many difficulties which Japanese companies have yet to over-come, especially in human resource management (HRM). Although FDI in China has become a significant phenomenon, it is still under-researched, and the role of Japanese firms and the transferability of Japanese-style management figure prominently amongst the relevant issues. Initial information allows us to make conclusions about which cultural, production, and product factors influence the importation of business systems.     

A COHORT ANALYSIS OF US AGE–EARNINGS PROFILES

Aggregate data on US earnings, classified by period and by age, are decomposed into age, period and cohort effects, using the Bayesian cohort models, which were developed to overcome the identification problem in cohort analysis. The main findings, obtained by comparing college and high school graduates, are threefold. First, the age effects show a downward trend for the age group of 45–49 onwards for high school graduates but do not show any such trend for college graduates. Second, the period effects show a downward trend for high school graduates but reveal no such trend for college graduates. Third, the cohort effects are negligible for both college and high school graduates.     

Stock price targeting and fiscal deficit in Japan: Why did the fiscal deficit increase during Japan’s lost decades?

The purpose of this paper is to explain why Japan’s fiscal deficit increased so dramatically in the 1990s and the 2000s. We focus on the role of “stock price targeting” to explain why the fiscal expenditure increased so much. After presenting a simple model to describe government behavior with an optimistic view about stock price and output growth, the paper tests whether the model can explain Japan’s fiscal expenditure. The empirical results, using biannual and high-frequency data of the 1990s and the 2000s, show that the stock price targeting can track Japan’s fiscal expenditure reasonably well, especially in the 1990s. They imply that without the stock price targeting, the total amount of biannual fiscal stimulus from 1992 to 2000 would have been lower by 2.5 trillion yen on average.     

On the determinants of exporters' currency pricing: History vs. expectations

The purpose of this paper is to investigate why the choice of invoice currency under exchange rate uncertainty depends not only on expectations but also on history. The analysis is motivated by the fact that the US dollar has historically been the dominant vehicle currency in developing countries. The theoretical analysis is based on an open economy model of monopolistic competition. When the market is competitive enough, the exporting firms tend to set their prices not to deviate from those of the competitors. As a result, a coordination failure can lead the third currency to be a less efficient equilibrium invoice currency. The role of expectations is important in selecting the equilibrium in the static framework. However, in the dynamic model with staggered price-setting, the role of history becomes another key determinant of the equilibrium currency pricing. The role of history may dominate the role of expectations when the firms are myopic, particularly in the competitive local market. It also becomes dominant in the staggered price setting when a fraction of the new price setters are backward-looking. The result suggests the importance of history in explaining why the firm tends to choose the US dollar as vehicle currency. J. Japanese Int. Economies 20 (4) (2006) 548–568.     

Cost-effectiveness of intravitreal aflibercept versus other treatments for wet age-related macular degeneration in Japan

Objective: This analysis estimated the cost-effectiveness of intravitreal aflibercept injection(s) (IAI) for wet age-related macular degeneration (wAMD) compared with other treatments in Japan.

Methods: This was a cost-utility analysis based on published data. A state-transition cohort model was constructed with six health states based on best-corrected visual acuity in the better-seeing eye. The cycle time was 4 weeks, and the time horizon was 12 years. The model compared IAI 2?mg every 8 weeks (2q8) for 2 years after three initial monthly injections, ranibizumab as needed, ranibizumab 0.5?mg every 4 weeks (0.5q4), pegaptanib sodium 0.3?mg every 6 weeks, verteporfin photodynamic therapy (PDT), and best supportive care, assumed to include medical management and monitoring, but no active therapy. Costs (expressed as Japanese yen [JPY]) and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) gained were estimated for each treatment and discounted at 2.0%. Input data were obtained from clinical studies, the Japanese drug tariff and social insurance reimbursement schedule, and expert opinion. The analysis was conducted from the societal perspective, including medical costs as well as costs of blindness.

Results: IAI 2q8 was dominant (i.e. more effective in terms of QALYs and less costly) to all other comparators (ranibizumab as needed, ranibizumab 0.5q4, pegaptanib sodium, PDT, and best supportive care), as shown by the incremental cost-utility ratio (i.e. cost per QALY gained).

Limitations: The strengths of the analysis include the wide range of comparators evaluated and the use of Japanese-specific utility data. The limitations include the use of one eye, inclusion of published data up to 2 years only, and assumptions on disease course over 5 years.

Conclusions: IAI 2q8 was more effective in terms of QALYs and less costly compared with other treatments for wAMD in Japan.     

Time-aggregated information and stock price volatility

This paper shows that if the dividends of a given stock are paid out only at regular intervals, its price tends to be more volatile and does not follow the random walk process even if a sequence of the dividends follows the random walk process.     

A model selection approach for multiple indicators multiple causes model

This study proposes a model selection approach for determining the inclusion or exclusion of a latent variable when two exogenous and two endogenous variables are provided. The models compared are the multivariate regression model without latent variables (MR model) and the multiple indicators multiple causes model (MIMIC model). The inclusion of a latent variable in the MR model yields the MIMIC model. In the proposed approach, an information criterion is used to select the best model of the two. The efficacy of the proposed approach is examined through two types of simulation studies and empirical analyses of the shadow economy and the fiscal illusion.